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Well, Katrina was exacerbated by N.O.'s elevation, shape, levees. It wasn't just the sheer hurricane power we remember
Looks like Irma peaked at 185 for now, but after the next eyewall replacement cycle she will temporarily weaken ~15-20 mph but grow double or greater in area and wind field and could deepen closer to 900 mb/200 mph as a much larger-sized hurricane.
Major hurricane force winds could extend >150 miles from the center after the next EWRC, meaning that any Florida hit would cause major winds and surge for the entire southern Florida Peninsula -- Key West, Tampa, Miami all the way up through Daytona. Orlando isn't on the coast but it would get >115 mph sustained winds and >135mph gusts as well. Within 25-30 miles of the center, you'd get Cat 5 winds -- sustained, not gusts. That's enough to flatten a brick or cement house, knock down high rise resorts and office buildings, and ravage foundations. If this part of the hurricane, say, hits Miami square on -- Katrina will be an afterthought in US history.
Well, Katrina was exacerbated by N.O.'s elevation, shape, levees. It wasn't just the sheer hurricane power we remember
Nice little jog north by 18z GFS vs. 12z through 54 hours. Could be enough to matter.
Yeah spurraider21. The worst part of Category 3 Katrina actually missed NOLA to the east. NOLA was spared of the eyewall and the right front outer part of the hurricane. But the levees were already failing due to age, mediocre build to begin with, and a rain soaker in strong Tropical Storm Cindy earlier in that hurricane season. Katrina was a large storm that dumped a lot of rain and pushed Lake Pontchartrain over the edge and dumped it into the "bowl" parts of NOLA. A category 1 or even TS could have done the same.
But now it would take a more direct hit and possibly a stronger hurricane because these new levees were built very well. They already survived two somewhat formidable minor hurricane hits in Gustav (2008) and Isaac (2012). Irma at peak intensity hitting NOLA directly would likely cause another Katrina or worse, fortunately it's not forecast to go that far west.
The donut hole of death. Unreal how symmetrical it is.
Pressure down to <920 per recon.
18z GFS run just took Irma out to sea instead of hitting Florida.
She's an evil looking
Moving WNW now, definitely a NW component. Could still recurve and miss the US entirely
yep, after first hand experience with Harvey it's clear that N.O.'s shoddy infrastructure all the way around is what caused it to be a catastrophe. If Houston's two dams had broken...holy .
Recon found 199mph winds just 80ft off the surface. Unreal. Still a 180mph storm but with a central pressure of 917.
so it weakened? I wonder if it'll only be a weak cat 5 or strong cat 4 at landfall
Andrew was at 175 mph when it hit Florida. I'd be really surprised to see Irma be as strong when it makes US mainland landfall after running through Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.
Depends on the land interaction. As of now waters right off the coast are warm enough to support a 7.5 or even 8.0 on the Dvorak. It's bathwater all the way up to Florida for Irma and with minimal shear it's the worst case scenario as far as how strong Irma will be at landfall.
Also they kept the intensity at 185mph per the 2000 update.
30 mile eye is crazy
Nice knowing you Puerto Rico. You shall be missed.
210 mph / 890 mb is just fine for a landfall in Miami. Miami can use an ass kicking, also Jay Cutler will be out of a job again.
Irmageddon truly taking her talents to Sowf Beach
ing unreal. That looks like an 8.0 with potentially a ring of CDG making landfall.
150 mile radius (from the eyewall) wide cat 3+ force hurricane winds, 350 miles wide radius of hurricane winds. And those are sustained winds, not gusts. That's before we even discuss rain or storm surge.
HWRF and ECMWF solutions slam into Florida as a cat 5, GFS 18z still makes Irma a fish storm at the last minute. Wait & see
As usual, follow the Euro and all will be revealed. It's by far the best model we have on the planet right now.
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