TBdog's Summary and Preview 2019

[J_Paco]

The 2018 offseason


It was one of those years that we have to admit really didn't go to plan. The Spurs biggest mistake was not admitting to themselves early that Leonard had to go. Depending on if you are pro Pop or against Pop will depend if you think it was Pop's arrogance or confidence that he could convince Leonard to stay. Regardless of your thoughts on this, the Front Office needed to address this earlier, instead, they entered the Free Agency market with the plan he was staying. In hindsight, it was a poor decision. But the reality is, the decision to attempt to convince Leonard was mandatory. He is a top 3 talent and the Spurs groomed him as a player. They wanted him alone, without his group at training camp or even at Team US camp. Eventually, Leonard's group pushed enough buttons and Leonard was traded after free agency market opened up.


This left some issues with the Front Officer decisions. The Front Office wanted to address the team’s biggest weakness; 3 point shooting. The Spurs were one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the league and Danny Green had an opt-out clause on his contract. The Spurs address this by signing the best 3-point shooter available at a reasonable price in Belinelli. They decided to resign Forbes and re-up Bertans instead of Kyle Anderson, and they inform Parker he would be deep in the bench. The vision was to surround LMA and Leonard with shooters. Alongside Murray and Gay, the Spurs would have good defenders, shooters, and size to compete for a deep run.


However, Pop and Co failed to convince Leonard to stay and they made a trade after they made all of their preseason plans. As a result, the team's balance was wobbly. They had too many 3 point specialist who are a liability on D. And the best players were poor shooters and average defenders. The Spurs entered the preseason with no trade assets and no way to improve the balance of the team. Signing Cunningham and Pondexter was buying silicone way pass its use by date in the hopes that it could cover the leaks.


By end of the 2018/2019 season, the Spurs lost 4 of their starters from the 2017/2018 season. Leonard and Green were traded. Murray went down for the season in a preseason game. And Gasol battled his own set of foot injuries and age, which as a result, regulated him to the bench, then deep on the bench, before being waived. On top of that, our two leaders, Manu and Parker left us.


The construction of the team left us fans frustrated. As a result, this Spurs team was consistently inconsistent. There were at times they were the best team in the league, having the best offensive rating and beating the contenders (at home). And at other times they were one of the worst teams, losing back to back to back 30 point games, and also losing to some of the worst teams in the league in the Suns and the Bulls. Every night we didn't know what team would turn up.


Approaching the deadline, the Spurs had some contracts available to trade, however, decided to keep their flexibility and stay the course. Taking that into consideration, the Spurs overachieved in the brutal west, falling in game 7 of the first round.


Future Decisions


In about 8 weeks time, the NBA draft is upon us. Exit interviews would have occurred, and players would be told if they are staying or going. Will LMA honour his contract and play out for the Spurs? Will Spurs discuss contract extensions with DD or let him go a year later with LMA?


Going into the draft, the Spurs will have three expiring contracts they could deal with. Beli, Forbes, and Bertans. The thing is, having three specialist shooters who are defensive liabilities is too much to have in one given team. And technically, the Spurs have four with Mills. Most teams have one or two. The first thing the Front Office needs to decide upon is which two they want to keep, or more precisely, which two could they trade out without giving up an asset.


The next big question the Front Office has to address is Gay. He is the Spurs third best player and was the best Spurs player in game 7. However, he does not fit particularly well with DD and LMA. Gay would be looking for the most amount of money. This is the last big contract of his career. His added 3 point shot was excellent at the start of the season, but it vanished as the season went along.



Trade Targets


Mills; I like Mills but boy can he make it hard to defend him. The new rules have not favoured Mills well. Mills is terrible at closing on 3 point shooters (too short) and he is unable to harass full court any more due to the freedom of movement rule. Mills owing 25mil over the next 2 years is a tough pill to swallow. Considering the Spurs only have LMA and DD on contract for 2 years, plus whatever rookie contract is extended, Mills is almost untradable. But a team like the Wizards, who are going nowhere and about to pay Wall 38mil not to play, have the cap space to absorb Mills contract if they get a 1st in return. And I am sure there are other teams who will be calling Wizards around draft day with the same proposition.


I can see the Spurs asking for Crowder and Saric in a deal with Bertans, Forbes and a SA 19th 1st going out. The Spurs need a 20min starting SF and stagger DD/White/Murray. Saric might be a reach for the Twolves as they may want to show something for the Butler trade, however Jazz really need shooters around Mitc and Gobert. Covington would be the most ideal trade target. He is an odd fit with Wiggins. Bertans and Forbes will match his salary and Tor 29th pick might be enticing for a team that needs shooters.


Free Agency


At glancing at the salary cap numbers and free agents, I can predict that the upper All-Star calibre players are going to be well fed and overpaid, while the mid-market will be had for cheap. There are a few teams with huge cap space and then things quickly dive to nothing. Since the 00:01hs deals which resulted in a lot of teams overpaying average players way too much, teams have been very cautious with their spending. I am sure the Spurs would ask Gay to take a discount p/y but guaranteed money over the course of 3 years. Move one or two of their shooters and combine their draft picks to move up, may result in having the MLE and 6mil in space. It would love to see Chinook break the numbers down here.



I think the Spurs will go after a hardworking, combo forward with a 3 point ability. Marcus Morris would be my number one target come free agency. I am sure a few teams will be offering him the MLE, and it will come down to the pitch and a guaranteed 3 years. If the Spurs cannot get Morris, the Spurs really need to focus on a player who can play PF alongside Poeltl and LMA who has 3 point range. There are rumours the Spurs are interesting in Thad Young. Although I like Thad Young for his toughness, off-ball cutting, rebounding, and plus defender with size, he does lack range. I much rather prefer to keep Gay. Then there is Nikola Mirotic, who may lack the toughness the Spurs need, he does cover the Spurs weakness if they lose some of their shooters to players that I mentioned.



I do strongly believe the Spurs will make changes. Perhaps not big changes or risky moves like giving up White/Walker. But they will make enough moves to build around LMA, DD, Murray, and White, simply because staying the course is a destined to fail. I would hope they will look for some more toughness and height and will sacrifice some deadeye small shooters that need space. That's the type of players the Spurs need to balance the team.

I would be stoked if we can land Thad Young, You are right he does not shoot it well outside the 10 feet area, but he takes two three points shots a game and makes them at 33%, 35% from the corner, and, currently, has the better defensive rating than anyone in our team (not named Dejounte).

I would hope that we make changes, but not let Rudy go. We can trade Bertans and take no money back, and keep Rudy while bringing in Thad Young, or at least I hope.

But if we keep our roster the same, I like our chances for next year. Below are minutes played for anyone that logged in 300 or more minutes this season. In parenthesis, I have the minutes I expect them to play next season.

I am conservative with LA and DeMar, because SAS usually don't play their stars over 2500min a season. This year it that happened both played close to 2700 minutes but it was out of necessity.

Bryn, should see a huge reduction in minutes played. He played the third most minutes for us, and I don't expect that to happen again. Same goes for Patty, Marco, and Davis, all of them I guessed 1500min. Rudy should play the same, Jakod more, and Derrick should see a generous increase in usage.

With my calculations there are 3000 minutes for DJ and Lonnie to split, probably 2000 for DJ + 1000 for Lonnie, not bad. There are minutes for everyone.

DJ Derrick DeMar Young and LA should be solid but so would be DJ Derrick DeMar Rudy and LA or DJ Bryn Derrick Rudy and Jakob

Given that, we should be a better team regardless.

Here is my break-down.

1 DeMar DeRozan 2688 (2400)
2 LaMarcus Aldridge 2687 (2400)
3 Bryn Forbes 2293 (1500)
4 Patty Mills 1908 (1500)
5 Rudy Gay 1842 (1800)
6 Marco Belinelli 1815 (1500)
7 Derrick White 1728 (2000)
8 Davis Bertans 1632 (1500)
9 Jakob Poeltl 1273 (1500)
10 Dante Cunningham 928 (0)
11 Pau Gasol 330 (0)

Man, great informative, well thought out and constructive data/thoughts in these two posts. This is the type of stuff that keeps me on Spurstalk still.

Anyway, I love what both of you had to say and agree the team could be "okay" with no major changes, Pop/R.C. believed they could "convince" Kawhi to stay, they foolishly built this past season's roster with that thought/goal in mind and some serious sacrifices/moves could put the team back in the mix (top 4 west seed).

Finding a defensive - minded/3 - D swingman and/or a combo forward should be the biggest priorities. Moving one or two of Mills, Belinelli, Forbes (I'm hesistant on him) and/or Bertans (also) is a must. My first choice would be the veterans, but the two younger guys would be much, much easier to move without giving up current or future assets.

Pop/R.C. have big decisions to make; I hope they are calculating and smart without overvaluing a player's perceived "corporate knowledge," tenure on the team or pedigree.

They need to continue to "slowly build to the future," add more youth and keep as many future assets as possible.

[J_Paco]

Of course LA and DD aren't as good as Tim and Manu but what were Tim and Manu doing from 08-11? They were getting their pushed in the first and 2nd round for years. Truth be told this team didn't start contending again until they drafted Kawhi and signed green.

Can't let the truth get in the way of their agenda and narrative, friend.....

Yeah, the team needs to either continue to build the youth around LaMarcus/DeMar or acquire another star to complement their games. The latter is much, much more difficult than the former to do with the current cap situation

[SpursDynasty85]

Of course LA and DD aren't as good as Tim and Manu but what were Tim and Manu doing from 08-11? They were getting their pushed in the first and 2nd round for years. Truth be told this team didn't start contending again until they drafted Kawhi and signed green.

You mean when they started picking up ridiculous bench points with Manu, Mills, Belli, Diaw or Splitter? Green and Leonard were equal parts to 7 or 8 others at that point in 2013 and 2014.

[Collins21]

You mean when they started picking up ridiculous bench points with Manu, Mills, Belli, Diaw or Splitter? Green and Leonard were equal parts to 7 or 8 others at that point in 2013 and 2014.

Doesn't change the fact that the Spurs were getting ousted in the first int he second round for 4 years even with Tim and Manu. DD and LA aren't as good as them so it would be natural to expect this result.

[SpursDynasty85]

Doesn't change the fact that the Spurs were getting ousted in the first int he second round for 4 years even with Tim and Manu. DD and LA aren't as good as them so it would be natural to expect this result.

Meh its arguable to say current LMA and DD couldn't hang with 2011 or 2012 Manu and TD but even in 2011 and 2012 we were still doing pretty good. That is what it is like in the NBA. NO FRANCHISE other than Patriots have sustained this kind of consistent winning and we are continuing the trend. We will see what happens next year. Again akward roster construction but ability to improve with young talent along with veterans. Can't ask for much more.

[monty4329]

Doesn't change the fact that the Spurs were getting ousted in the first int he second round for 4 years even with Tim and Manu. DD and LA aren't as good as them so it would be natural to expect this result.

PATFO deserves enormous credit for the season, really. Even if they got raped with DDR. Losing Kawhi, and in that fashion, would have killed most of other teams. We could have easily ended up like CLE after Lebron.

The most pressing need is points, offense. The Spurs have a one-dimension offense, which worked beautifully for a few weeks, then NBA noticed and adjusted. And that was it, season over. We need scorers, if they can defend all the better, but it is not essential. That's why I like the Mirotic idea, for instance.
Also, I think DDR is tradeable to desperate teams. It would be addition by subtraction even if we get back bad contracts and lose one pick. PHX might be interested, as well as NO after they lose AD. Warriors too might be a destination, but they have nobody to trade.

I disagree witht he idea of having too many 3pt shooters. Next year's starters cannot shoot 3s, it will be even worse than this season with DJ.

[RC_Drunkford]

If RC is a genius he'd trade DeMar for a lottery pick, then sign Bogdanovic and Harris with the cap space that opened up

[TD 21]

I can see the Spurs asking for Crowder and Saric in a deal with Bertans, Forbes and a SA 19th 1st going out. The Spurs need a 20min starting SF and stagger DD/White/Murray. Saric might be a reach for the Twolves as they may want to show something for the Butler trade, however Jazz really need shooters around Mitc and Gobert. Covington would be the most ideal trade target. He is an odd fit with Wiggins. Bertans and Forbes will match his salary and Tor 29th pick might be enticing for a team that needs shooters.

Can't see the Spurs trading both Bertans and Forbes. They're a different caliber of shooter than Mills and Belinelli, in addition to being younger.

Crowder isn't nearly a good enough shooter to serve as a floor spacer along the four non 3-point shooters in the Spurs projected starting lineup.

I'd guess the Jazz will be in on Harris, but ultimately end up with Mirotic (worse case is probably Parker). If that's the case, Crowder's ability to defend big wings would be more valuable to them than the more redundant Bertans.

Saric is strictly a PF and should ultimately settle in as an ideal compliment to Towns. He's also the best long term piece from the Butler trade. For a franchise presumably looking to make the playoffs, I can't see a backup and late 1st being appealing to them.

Covington isn't an odd fit alongside Wiggins. Their biggest problem is Wiggins sucks. If he were even close to what he projected to be, they'd have a nice core.

[timvp]

Pretty close, tbdog. Good work, tbh

[tbdog]

Pretty close, tbdog. Good work, tbh

Great off season. Carroll over Crowder. Worked out well.

[BSfromTX]

Can’t forget that Pop was in the process of losing his wife, too. He was dealt a very difficult hand last year