TBdog's Summary and Preview 2019

[tbdog]

The 2018 offseason


It was one of those years that we have to admit really didn't go to plan. The Spurs biggest mistake was not admitting to themselves early that Leonard had to go. Depending on if you are pro Pop or against Pop will depend if you think it was Pop's arrogance or confidence that he could convince Leonard to stay. Regardless of your thoughts on this, the Front Office needed to address this earlier, instead, they entered the Free Agency market with the plan he was staying. In hindsight, it was a poor decision. But the reality is, the decision to attempt to convince Leonard was mandatory. He is a top 3 talent and the Spurs groomed him as a player. They wanted him alone, without his group at training camp or even at Team US camp. Eventually, Leonard's group pushed enough buttons and Leonard was traded after free agency market opened up.


This left some issues with the Front Officer decisions. The Front Office wanted to address the team’s biggest weakness; 3 point shooting. The Spurs were one of the worst 3 point shooting teams in the league and Danny Green had an opt-out clause on his contract. The Spurs address this by signing the best 3-point shooter available at a reasonable price in Belinelli. They decided to resign Forbes and re-up Bertans instead of Kyle Anderson, and they inform Parker he would be deep in the bench. The vision was to surround LMA and Leonard with shooters. Alongside Murray and Gay, the Spurs would have good defenders, shooters, and size to compete for a deep run.


However, Pop and Co failed to convince Leonard to stay and they made a trade after they made all of their preseason plans. As a result, the team's balance was wobbly. They had too many 3 point specialist who are a liability on D. And the best players were poor shooters and average defenders. The Spurs entered the preseason with no trade assets and no way to improve the balance of the team. Signing Cunningham and Pondexter was buying silicone way pass its use by date in the hopes that it could cover the leaks.


By end of the 2018/2019 season, the Spurs lost 4 of their starters from the 2017/2018 season. Leonard and Green were traded. Murray went down for the season in a preseason game. And Gasol battled his own set of foot injuries and age, which as a result, regulated him to the bench, then deep on the bench, before being waived. On top of that, our two leaders, Manu and Parker left us.


The construction of the team left us fans frustrated. As a result, this Spurs team was consistently inconsistent. There were at times they were the best team in the league, having the best offensive rating and beating the contenders (at home). And at other times they were one of the worst teams, losing back to back to back 30 point games, and also losing to some of the worst teams in the league in the Suns and the Bulls. Every night we didn't know what team would turn up.


Approaching the deadline, the Spurs had some contracts available to trade, however, decided to keep their flexibility and stay the course. Taking that into consideration, the Spurs overachieved in the brutal west, falling in game 7 of the first round.


Future Decisions


In about 8 weeks time, the NBA draft is upon us. Exit interviews would have occurred, and players would be told if they are staying or going. Will LMA honour his contract and play out for the Spurs? Will Spurs discuss contract extensions with DD or let him go a year later with LMA?


Going into the draft, the Spurs will have three expiring contracts they could deal with. Beli, Forbes, and Bertans. The thing is, having three specialist shooters who are defensive liabilities is too much to have in one given team. And technically, the Spurs have four with Mills. Most teams have one or two. The first thing the Front Office needs to decide upon is which two they want to keep, or more precisely, which two could they trade out without giving up an asset.


The next big question the Front Office has to address is Gay. He is the Spurs third best player and was the best Spurs player in game 7. However, he does not fit particularly well with DD and LMA. Gay would be looking for the most amount of money. This is the last big contract of his career. His added 3 point shot was excellent at the start of the season, but it vanished as the season went along.



Trade Targets


Mills; I like Mills but boy can he make it hard to defend him. The new rules have not favoured Mills well. Mills is terrible at closing on 3 point shooters (too short) and he is unable to harass full court any more due to the freedom of movement rule. Mills owing 25mil over the next 2 years is a tough pill to swallow. Considering the Spurs only have LMA and DD on contract for 2 years, plus whatever rookie contract is extended, Mills is almost untradable. But a team like the Wizards, who are going nowhere and about to pay Wall 38mil not to play, have the cap space to absorb Mills contract if they get a 1st in return. And I am sure there are other teams who will be calling Wizards around draft day with the same proposition.


I can see the Spurs asking for Crowder and Saric in a deal with Bertans, Forbes and a SA 19th 1st going out. The Spurs need a 20min starting SF and stagger DD/White/Murray. Saric might be a reach for the Twolves as they may want to show something for the Butler trade, however Jazz really need shooters around Mitc and Gobert. Covington would be the most ideal trade target. He is an odd fit with Wiggins. Bertans and Forbes will match his salary and Tor 29th pick might be enticing for a team that needs shooters.


Free Agency


At glancing at the salary cap numbers and free agents, I can predict that the upper All-Star calibre players are going to be well fed and overpaid, while the mid-market will be had for cheap. There are a few teams with huge cap space and then things quickly dive to nothing. Since the 00:01hs deals which resulted in a lot of teams overpaying average players way too much, teams have been very cautious with their spending. I am sure the Spurs would ask Gay to take a discount p/y but guaranteed money over the course of 3 years. Move one or two of their shooters and combine their draft picks to move up, may result in having the MLE and 6mil in space. It would love to see Chinook break the numbers down here.



I think the Spurs will go after a hardworking, combo forward with a 3 point ability. Marcus Morris would be my number one target come free agency. I am sure a few teams will be offering him the MLE, and it will come down to the pitch and a guaranteed 3 years. If the Spurs cannot get Morris, the Spurs really need to focus on a player who can play PF alongside Poeltl and LMA who has 3 point range. There are rumours the Spurs are interesting in Thad Young. Although I like Thad Young for his toughness, off-ball cutting, rebounding, and plus defender with size, he does lack range. I much rather prefer to keep Gay. Then there is Nikola Mirotic, who may lack the toughness the Spurs need, he does cover the Spurs weakness if they lose some of their shooters to players that I mentioned.



I do strongly believe the Spurs will make changes. Perhaps not big changes or risky moves like giving up White/Walker. But they will make enough moves to build around LMA, DD, Murray, and White, simply because staying the course is a destined to fail. I would hope they will look for some more toughness and height and will sacrifice some deadeye small shooters that need space. That's the type of players the Spurs need to balance the team.

[alpha_HaZE]

I would be stoked if we can land Thad Young, You are right he does not shoot it well outside the 10 feet area, but he takes two three points shots a game and makes them at 33%, 35% from the corner, and, currently, has the better defensive rating than anyone in our team (not named Dejounte).

I would hope that we make changes, but not let Rudy go. We can trade Bertans and take no money back, and keep Rudy while bringing in Thad Young, or at least I hope.

But if we keep our roster the same, I like our chances for next year. Below are minutes played for anyone that logged in 300 or more minutes this season. In parenthesis, I have the minutes I expect them to play next season.

I am conservative with LA and DeMar, because SAS usually don't play their stars over 2500min a season. This year it that happened both played close to 2700 minutes but it was out of necessity.

Bryn, should see a huge reduction in minutes played. He played the third most minutes for us, and I don't expect that to happen again. Same goes for Patty, Marco, and Davis, all of them I guessed 1500min. Rudy should play the same, Jakod more, and Derrick should see a generous increase in usage.

With my calculations there are 3000 minutes for DJ and Lonnie to split, probably 2000 for DJ + 1000 for Lonnie, not bad. There are minutes for everyone.

DJ Derrick DeMar Young and LA should be solid but so would be DJ Derrick DeMar Rudy and LA or DJ Bryn Derrick Rudy and Jakob

Given that, we should be a better team regardless.

Here is my break-down.

1 DeMar DeRozan 2688 (2400)
2 LaMarcus Aldridge 2687 (2400)
3 Bryn Forbes 2293 (1500)
4 Patty Mills 1908 (1500)
5 Rudy Gay 1842 (1800)
6 Marco Belinelli 1815 (1500)
7 Derrick White 1728 (2000)
8 Davis Bertans 1632 (1500)
9 Jakob Poeltl 1273 (1500)
10 Dante Cunningham 928 (0)
11 Pau Gasol 330 (0)

[BillMc]

Hey OP thanks for the nice write up.

[Em-City]

The 2018 offseason
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I do strongly believe the Spurs will make changes. Perhaps not big changes or risky moves like giving up White/Walker. But they will make enough moves to build around LMA, DD, Murray, and White, simply because staying the course is a destined to fail. I would hope they will look for some more toughness and height and will sacrifice some deadeye small shooters that need space. That's the type of players the Spurs need to balance the team.

Great write up.. Only criticism I have is that keeping DD and LA is basically "starting the course"unless you add a 3Rd star, which ain't happening

[tbdog]

Great write up.. Only criticism I have is that keeping DD and LA is basically "starting the course"unless you add a 3Rd star, which ain't happening

We haven't seen the team built with DD in it. The team was built then they traded for DD.

[Spurs4#5]

We haven't seen the team built with DD in it. The team was built then they traded for DD.

This.
People forget that this team was built for kawhi primarily and Aldridge second. A whole summer to build the scheme around what can make this team effective and productive will do wonders. The last two years are washes for the fact that Leonard was out one year and then got traded the next so we were stuck with what we had.

[superbigtime]

milutinov

[HankChinaski]

Nice work on a minutes breakdown.

Yeah, the draft is going to be very interesting regarding where this front office is looking to solidify or change things around the core players.

Free Agency I am not going to hold my breath on. Young or Morris would be nice options. BUT here in Spurs talk it will be just be pages after endless pages of vague possibilities followed by a river of slit wrists and calls for tanking.

*Sticks finger up in the air*

Ahh it is slowly beginning to feel like it is ripe for another off season.

[RC_Drunkford]

great write up. Agree with the takes, Morris would also be my fist option. They should also have a look at Bogdanovic, Carroll, Danny Green depending on if they can get Morris or not

[rjv]

great write up. Agree with the takes, Morris would also be my fist option. They should also have a look at Bogdanovic, Carroll, Danny Green depending on if they can get Morris or not

i think he's a solid option (great shooter, soon to be 30, iffy defender but not to bad on the boards) also and could be had for the ME. i used to think green would be a nice option being that he knows the system but seeing him in the playoffs has reminded me of the things he was often so bad at.

[Seventyniner]

i think he's a solid option (great shooter, soon to be 30, iffy defender but not to bad on the boards) also and could be had for the ME. i used to think green would be a nice option being that he knows the system but seeing him in the playoffs has reminded me of the things he was often so bad at.

Danny would be a great fit next to DeMar. One of the reasons that Danny's shooting suffered last year was a lack of playmaking.

[look_at_g_shred]

Danny would be a great fit next to DeMar. One of the reasons that Danny's shooting suffered last year was a lack of playmaking.

Uhh no.

[SAGirl]

Great write-up much appreciated. Always appreciate your observations.
One has to hope Dejounte has learned how to shoot.I am skeptical the team will rid itself of their shooters.

[MultiTroll]

I do strongly believe the Spurs will make changes. Perhaps not big changes or risky moves like giving up White/Walker. But they will make enough moves to build around LMA, DD, Murray, and White, simply because staying the course is a destined to fail. I would hope they will look for some more toughness and height and will sacrifice some deadeye small shooters that need space. That's the type of players the Spurs need to balance the team.

Guarantees mediocrity continued. These two have peaked.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Nice write up. Good to see trade proposals that at least have some contact with reality. And looking at 3-way deals is a nice touch. I'm so used to seeing Mills for Curry that this was really a welcome change.

Rudy had a good Game 7. But after the discussion here, I went back and looked at his numbers before and after the ASB. His shooting went to , but that can be a slump. But his AST/STL/BLK numbers went to , too. I don't know if he was playing injured, but even if he was that still is a concern that he can't stay healthy for a whole season anymore. Giving him a long(er) term deal runs the risk of mortgaging the future, at least in part. Since the Spurs are going to be over the cap anyway, they can pay him. I expect to see him get either a 1 year deal, or a front-loaded 2 year deal with a partial guarantee for the second year. If he stays.

Neither Mills nor DeRozan can be traded. They would have to be dumped. That also means continuing to mortgage the future. Bertans and Belli can both shoot 3's, and they're expiring, so we could probably get a trade done for either one - but even throwing in a pick, getting anyone that moves the needle noticeably would be a real coup.

If you're not rebuilding, you're building on what you have. So unless they can swing a deal like DeRozan + both 2019 picks for Anthony Davis, I expect to see a lot of the same thing next year. I wouldn't hold my breath.

[superbigtime]

what do ya'll think of Eubanks. Is he gonna continue to be groomed. I think he could contribute way more.

[tbdog]

Guarantees mediocrity continued. These two have peaked.

I mean, TD, Parker, Manu peaked long time before 2014 too.

[GreekSpursfan]

If Durant stays with the Warriors which is still a possibility or he goes with nephew to the Clippers then i don't see anyone beating those two teams so i'm not giving away picks just to get out of Mills deal. I stay the course and continue to develop current players and the players i draft. The players mentioned don't move the needle for me. Marcus Morris not good enough, average at best at anything he does, another unathletic player, we have plenty of those. Thad Y. very good defender, absolute trash offensively.
First we have to see where Durant goes and then act accordingly. If Durant goes to the Knicks then the window opens up, anything else(the two options i mentioned) and it shuts down immediately.

[MultiTroll]

I mean, TD, Parker, Manu peaked long time before 2014 too.

Big 3s peak >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>DD and LMAs peak.

TDs super high BBIQ and he and Manus versatility kept them contenders well beyond their prime. Porker not so much.

[itzsoweezee]

I mean, TD, Parker, Manu peaked long time before 2014 too.

I can believe you just made this comparison. LMA and DD, even in their best years, were never as good as TD and Manu in their worst years.

Man, Spurs fans are just delusional. If they run it back, it will be another first round knockout (assuming they make the playoffs)

[Collins21]

I can believe you just made this comparison. LMA and DD, even in their best years, were never as good as TD and Manu in their worst years.

Man, Spurs fans are just delusional. If they run it back, it will be another first round knockout (assuming they make the playoffs)

Of course LA and DD aren't as good as Tim and Manu but what were Tim and Manu doing from 08-11? They were getting their pushed in the first and 2nd round for years. Truth be told this team didn't start contending again until they drafted Kawhi and signed green.

[offset formation]

Nice write up. Good to see trade proposals that at least have some contact with reality. And looking at 3-way deals is a nice touch. I'm so used to seeing Mills for Curry that this was really a welcome change.

Rudy had a good Game 7. But after the discussion here, I went back and looked at his numbers before and after the ASB. His shooting went to , but that can be a slump. But his AST/STL/BLK numbers went to , too. I don't know if he was playing injured, but even if he was that still is a concern that he can't stay healthy for a whole season anymore. Giving him a long(er) term deal runs the risk of mortgaging the future, at least in part. Since the Spurs are going to be over the cap anyway, they can pay him. I expect to see him get either a 1 year deal, or a front-loaded 2 year deal with a partial guarantee for the second year. If he stays.

Neither Mills nor DeRozan can be traded. They would have to be dumped. That also means continuing to mortgage the future. Bertans and Belli can both shoot 3's, and they're expiring, so we could probably get a trade done for either one - but even throwing in a pick, getting anyone that moves the needle noticeably would be a real coup.

If you're not rebuilding, you're building on what you have. So unless they can swing a deal like DeRozan + both 2019 picks for Anthony Davis, I expect to see a lot of the same thing next year. I wouldn't hold my breath.

Me likey. Swing away!

Of course, they'd never accept it but maybe it starts the negotiations.

[BackHome]

Sing Nikola and Ben Moore and draft two good players maybe use Forbes, Metu, or Bertans to move up in draft and then call it a day. If you feeling really frisky use of them to move up and get Philly nigh second round pick and get Okeke

[tbdog]

I can believe you just made this comparison. LMA and DD, even in their best years, were never as good as TD and Manu in their worst years.

Man, Spurs fans are just delusional. If they run it back, it will be another first round knockout (assuming they make the playoffs)

Yes, but TD/Manu/Tony isn't walking through those doors. That 2014 team had Tony as our only allstar. Spurs beat a 3 allstar Heat team. And Parker doesn't make the allstar game if Westbrook wasn't coming back from injury. My forecast is the current superteam is coming to an end, and building around one or two studs is the future.

[pad300]

what do ya'll think of Eubanks. Is he gonna continue to be groomed. I think he could contribute way more.

I suspect they might have decided he's not going to make it - bringing in Motiejunas rather than upgrading his contract ( to a vet min so he could play in the playoffs) suggests to me that they aren't confident in him...