Why do black Democrats like Joe Biden?

[Will Hunting]

I guess. The violent crime rate is a little more than half of what it was in the early 90s and coincidently or not the rate went into a freefall after the 1994 crime bill was passed. The incarceration rate OTOH had been blowing up for two full decades before the 1994 bill was passed due mainly to what individual states were doing. Again, correlation isn't causation, but Biden can actually brag about being in the administration when the incarceration trend finally reversed.

It's just not so cut and dry that Biden can't defend himself on the issue at all. Pardon the double negative.

I agree he can defend himself on the issue but I guess my point is that a moderate amount of research shows that his record on the issue is extremely blemished, not to mention the fact that if he's truly against mass incarceration/the war on drugs and wants criminal justice reform, he hasn't exactly been enthusiastic in proposing changes as part of his campaign platform. He's focused entirely on trying to convince voters that he hasn't been part of the problem but hasn't done anything to show that he'd be part of the solution.

His contribution to mass incarceration predates the crime bill. He cosponsored Strom Thurman's 1984 Comprehensive Crime Control Act (his extensive work with Thurman on criminal justice issues alone should be a red flag for black voters), was a big proponent of both anti-drug abuse acts in the 1980s. He also made an effort to more or less outdo GHWB on harsher penalties for non-violent offenses. He even bragged about a crime bill he got through the senate claiming that it "does everything but hang people for jaywalking".

I don't think there's a ton of gray area to the fact that Biden was a big proponent of stiff penalties for non-violent drug offenses during the 80s and 90s when incarceration rates were booming.

[Will Hunting]

I think you have to consider Trump's in bency as a variable when comparing 2016 to 2020. Seemed like enough liberal voters thought Hillary was a shoe-in that they stayed home. I don't expect that to be the case in 2020.

Seems like it would be a of a lot easier and sensible to elect a candidate who the base actually likes and will show up for instead of hope and pray that the unlikeability of Trump alone with be enough to inspire turnout from progressives.

You also have to consider perception as a "centrist." Most Trump voters certainly didn't view Hillary as a centrist.

Those Trump voters aren't going to view Biden (or anyone else coming out of the Democratic primary for that matter) as a centrist either, and I'm not sure why people keep making the "but Trump voters think Hillary is a socialist!" argument as if Democrats should run a candidate as far to the right as possible in order to try and convince Derp and Chris that said candidate isn't an ultra left wing communist out to destroy America. The 35% of America that watches Fox News and Dnesh Dsouza movies are going to view the Democratic candidate as a dangerous extremist no matter what.

[Pavlov]

I agree he can defend himself on the issue but I guess my point is that a moderate amount of research shows that his record on the issue is extremely blemished, not to mention the fact that if he's truly against mass incarceration/the war on drugs and wants criminal justice reform, he hasn't exactly been enthusiastic in proposing changes as part of his campaign platform. He's focused entirely on trying to convince voters that he hasn't been part of the problem but hasn't done anything to show that he'd be part of the solution.

His contribution to mass incarceration predates the crime bill. He cosponsored Strom Thurman's 1984 Comprehensive Crime Control Act (his extensive work with Thurman on criminal justice issues alone should be a red flag for black voters), was a big proponent of both anti-drug abuse acts in the 1980s. He also made an effort to more or less outdo GHWB on harsher penalties for non-violent offenses. He even bragged about a crime bill he got through the senate claiming that it "does everything but hang people for jaywalking".

I don't think there's a ton of gray area to the fact that Biden was a big proponent of stiff penalties for non-violent drug offenses during the 80s and 90s when incarceration rates were booming.

I think the people who lived through the 80s and 90s as adults remember how violent it was and will be OK with the reactions. Giuliani was America's Mayor in no small part for getting all tough on crime before Trump's reverse Midas touch

[Spurminator]

dp

[Spurminator]

Seems like it would be a of a lot easier and sensible to elect a candidate who the base actually likes and will show up for instead of hope and pray that the unlikeability of Trump alone with be enough to inspire turnout from progressives.

I guess it depends on who you define as the base. Clearly, if the polls are any indication, a lot of Democrats do like Biden and will show up for him regardless of his opponent.

Those Trump voters aren't going to view Biden (or anyone else coming out of the Democratic primary for that matter) as a centrist either, and I'm not sure why people keep making the "but Trump voters think Hillary is a socialist!" argument as if Democrats should run a candidate as far to the right as possible in order to try and convince Derp and Chris that said candidate isn't an ultra left wing communist out to destroy America. The 35% of America that watches Fox News and Dnesh Dsouza movies are going to view the Democratic candidate as a dangerous extremist no matter what.

I wasn't really making an argument in favor of Biden based on the perception of Hillary, I just disagree with how Republican voters will perceive him compared to Hillary.

FOX and D'Sousa viewers are absolutely a lost cause, but I think you overestimate the size of that audience.

A significant portion of Republicans will still show up and still vote for Trump. But it wouldn't take many swing voters to cause a landslide in the other direction. He's at his nadir in approval rating among independents, and if even half of the 13% of Republicans can be persuaded to vote for an uncontroversial centrist like Biden, that's church.

[Will Hunting]

I guess it depends on who you define as the base. Clearly, if the polls are any indication, a lot of Democrats do like Biden and will show up for him regardless of his opponent.

The polls do a ty job at factor in actual voter participation .

FOX and D'Sousa viewers are absolutely a lost cause, but I think you overestimate the size of that audience.

The Republicans who view Hillary as an extremist are largely the Fox/D'Sousa crowd. I don't think the college educated Republican suburban housewife in Scottsdale Arizona believed Hillary was a left wing extremist.

A significant portion of Republicans will still show up and still vote for Trump. But it wouldn't take many swing voters to cause a landslide in the other direction. He's at his nadir in approval rating among independents, and if even half of the 13% of Republicans can be persuaded to vote for an uncontroversial centrist like Biden, that's church.

It's church right up until the point where Biden gets into office and does nothing to put policies I agree with in place. Even if you're right about Biden being really electable, I don't see the point of putting someone in office who's in favor of continuing our backwards healthcare system, is lukewarm towards addressing climate change, and wants deregulation as much as most Republicans do just to be able to call scoreboard. He's better than Hillary in terms of electability because of his folksy personality but he'd be even worse than Hillary imo in terms of policy he'd favor.

[Spurminator]

The Republicans who view Hillary as an extremist are largely the Fox/D'Sousa crowd. I don't think the college educated Republican suburban housewife in Scottsdale Arizona believed Hillary was a left wing extremist.

A third category - probably the largest: Politically disinterested white suburban conservatives/Christians. They're not heavy cable news viewers but they still associate Clinton with the Lewinsky scandal and think of her as a raging feminist.

It's church right up until the point where Biden gets into office and does nothing to put policies I agree with in place. Even if you're right about Biden being really electable, I don't see the point of putting someone in office who's in favor of continuing our backwards healthcare system, is lukewarm towards addressing climate change, and wants deregulation as much as most Republicans do just to be able to call scoreboard. He's better than Hillary in terms of electability because of his folksy personality but he'd be even worse than Hillary imo in terms of policy he'd favor.

He would need to be pushed by progressives in congress, certainly. But I don't see him being a veto threat on any of those issues.