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Dems are going to nominate Suozzi.
Lean D.
Word is that the Dems are either nominating Suozzi or Kaplan, with Suozzi as the favorite to get the nomination.
It’s probably a very very light tilt D with Kaplan as the candidate. The biggest worry I had was the Dems nominating a pro Palestine dip in a very Jewish district, and that’s neither Suozzi or Kaplan, so the likes of AIPAC won’t be getting involved to help the R win.
Dems are going to nominate Suozzi.
Lean D.
Surprising Hochul bent the knee considering she's a bit of a megalomaniac. https://nypost.com/2023/12/05/metro/...george-santos/
Obviously he's the favorite. Apparently abortion came up in their meeting, but that shouldn't be a problem for Suozzi who is pro-choice anyway.
I would say it's Tilt D if it's Mike Sapraicone, the NYPD police big-wig, on the (R) side. Sapraicone can attack Suozzi on the crime issue which is a very big hot topic right now in NYC.
If the (R)s are stupid enough to nominate that Ethopian lady Mazi whatever her name is, it's Likely to Safe (D) for Suozzi. It doesn't matter that she's Jewish; she's still a ing n!gger from -ass Ethiopia, where they eat curry goat with their ing hands that they use to wipe their anuses.
I might agree on the tilt D rating if this was a regular cycle election but in a short timeframe special election Suozzi’s name recognition and existing connections are a much bigger advantage.
Hes also campaigning on a great platform of reducing crime and even immigration. Another Dem trying to campaign on that wouldn’t really do much because no one would believe them but people in the district know Suozzi well enough.
Suozzi in general is my kind of Democrat. Supports massive reforms to the tax system so rich people pay more taxes, votes for the social spending programs, but hates crime and immigration and isn’t beholden to brown people.
sounds like the kind of dem that can win in a district that elected santos.
they nominated the Ethiopian
Suozzi (D) vs. Token A. Frican (R) - likely D imo
If Suozzi is indeed authentically moderate/right (i.e. 80s/90s mainstream Democrat) on the crime and immigration issues..... wouldn't be surprised to see Suozzi win by 20% or so. Time and again, token GOP candidates underperform their white counterparts by double digits. Both Warnock (2022) and Governor Beshear (2023) were absolutely beatable in their general elections with better candidate quality.
Suozzi (D) vs. Token A. Frican (R) - likely D imo
Never underestimate the stupidity of GOPe leader idiots like McConnell and Ronna Romney McDaniel who continue year in and year out to do stupid and nominate stupid people and literally throw elections, time and again.
So basically you're a Mondale/Dukakis type of Democrat. The kind who was okay with most of Nixon's policy but thought Reaganomics was a scam which it was... Good, honestly.
As for the NY-03 race, with the candidates finalized, my money is on Safe (D) for Suozzi, not Likely. For the special election. If (likely) the GOP nominates a better candidate for the 2024 election and the maps aren't crazily re-drawn, I have Suozzi winning by a much narrower margin in a presidential election night scenario, probably by a tilt to lean margin.
Herschel Walker was on Trump more than McConnell or the establishment, but Daniel Cameroon was 100% a case of out-of-touch GOP consultants handpicking a stiff token minority who had no appeal to the GOP base.
As far as Suozzi, there's a faction of Dems in NY that's extremely tough on crime / immigration and he's definitely a part of it.
Yeah, the GOP campaign in NY-03 will try to tie Suozzi to Hochul and the greater NYDem mess, but it should mostly bounce off because Suozzi's camp will successfully be able to argue that he's not the Hochul-preferred candidate anyway, he tried to primary out Hochul for Governor on a politically center right common sense campaign on crime and immigration, gave up his House seat to do it, and is actually closer politically to Zeldin than to Hochul for the most part. Other than being fiscally moderate to left of center and being pro-choice, and having a (D) next to his name, he has next to nothing in common with Hochul.
NY has a big problem... they need to put criminals in jail & deport illegals. Regardless of whether the Dems or GOP does it. Which ever party can get the most credit for doing that will be the party that the metro supports in the next generation. A lot on the line for NYDems who have controlled that part of the country for a very long time.
As for Herschel Walker, how exactly is that all Trump's fault? Sure he endorsed him when it was evident he had nobody else with any funding running in the primary, but he always does that. Just because he's a fellow ex-celebrity? Who else exactly was running for that primary? Someone like Doug Collins would have won and appeased Trump's base much more, not pissed off moderate anti-Biden educated white suburbanites who thought Walker had the IQ of a watermelon, and beaten Warnock running just a couple points behind Kemp on the ticket, not 10% behind. McConnell funded and backed Walker from the fall of 2021 onward without the greater GOP offering a better candidate and solution. How much better realistically was Vernon Jones, another token? Probably can't get worse than Walker, but not sure he would have beat Warnock even in a runoff. There's blame to go around there and nobody, not Kemp, not Trump, not McConnell, not McDaniel, were immune from blame for nominating a bad ex-celebrity candidate with CTE with mashed yams for brains. Blame to go around.
I fully expect Trump to re-claim GA in 2024 (he's been winning in all the polls by a low likely margin and at worst a very high lean margin, and the RCP aggregate in the past 3 months is likely margin) and both Senate seats are absolutely winnable for the GOP in '26 and '28 with the right candidates. Starting with Kemp himself in '26 against Ossoff.
Trump didn't just endorse Herschel. He encouraged him to run when Herschel's interest in running without Trump was lukewarm at best, and Trump made it clear he would endorse him very early on such that other candidates (Doug Collins and Buddy Carter to name a few) were discouraged from running because they knew the primary was a lost cause.
You're ignoring the context behind McConnell's endorsement. McConnell backed Herschel once it became clear that he was going to be the candidate and there was nothing McConnell could do to stop it. Before that, he dug up dirt on Herschel and had his people arrange for several hit pieces to be run on Herschel with the hope that he could discourage him from running.
I get it. Even conservative pundits and right leaning podcasters stick the Walker senate loss on Trump, whereas they don't with Laxalt, Oz, and even Masters. I always just really wondered why, since that wasn't a compe ive primary result at all and it seemed to be a joint GOP effort to get Walker when there were much better, not just more electable, but also smarter and more effective conservative candidates out there left on the table for GA.
I will say with Oz though even though that wasn't all Trump's fault, the fact that the primary was so close meant that the late Trump endorsement of Oz probably made all the difference, especially in the east half of PA. The west was voting McCormick no matter what, but if Trump had endorsed McCormick he would have probably won that primary by a few percentage points instead of Oz. As for McCormick vs Fetterman? Idk, PA is kind of trending blue, especially in the highly educated, multiracial collar suburbs area. Bucks County used to be purple to pink and sort of be the Macomb County (MI) of PA, but now it's become the Cobb County (GA) of PA. The GOP is maxed out in the rural counties in the middle part of the state, and while they may make gains in exurban Pittsburgh, NEPA, and a place like Erie, it won't be enough to offset the Philly collar suburbs which are rapidly becoming the Atlanta suburbs on steroids.
One of my bold predictions for 2024 is that PA is going to vote left of MI in 2024, both at the POTUS and Senate level, which would be the first time that's happened since 1992 I believe. But the trends are clear and obvious and the GOP is mostly maxed out in PA and Bob Casey Jr. is on the ticket, while in MI conservatives have a ton of room to grow in the rural counties across the board and the Detroit suburbs are very much a mixed bag rather than being all overwhelmingly blue like the Philly suburbs.
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