Mark Robinson (NC AG running for Governor) reportedly likely to suspend campaign

[Winehole23]

[Millennial_Messiah]

Really this cycle that only holds true for Robinson and Kari Lake. Sam Brown is a below average generic-R candidate but he's far from the worst candidate you've ever seen (unless you want to judge him by his looks, which is petty, give or take a Tammy Duckworth). The rust belt GOP candidates are above average for the most part this cycle. For some years like 2022 and 2012 it was much worse.





Yeah, seems like a lukewarm re-endorsement of Robinson but mainly a reaffirmation of the national race. NC-GOP is generally competent but they can only attempt to nationalize this race so much. It's a state gubernatorial race in a state that's been historically open to some ticket-splitting (state vis-a-vis federal), even recently. Eventually they will have to make a concession or accept another four and possibly eight more years of Democrat governorship, which will put them over double digits of consecutive Democrat control over this governor mansion -- highly unusual for a pink or even purple state in modern times.

If they're smart they'd dump him now, the sooner the better. Promise him some other position within the party or whatever it takes.

[Will Hunting]

If they're smart they'd dump him now, the sooner the better. Promise him some other position within the party or whatever it takes.

They have literally 3.5 hours for him to drop out, if he hasn't dropped out by midnight tonight then ballots start getting mailed out tomorrow and that's that. The issue is that there's no way to forcefully remove him, he'd need to agree to withdraw at some point between now and midnight which isn't happening

[TimDunkem]

JFC

[Winehole23]

[Millennial_Messiah]

They have literally 3.5 hours for him to drop out, if he hasn't dropped out by midnight tonight then ballots start getting mailed out tomorrow and that's that. The issue is that there's no way to forcefully remove him, he'd need to agree to withdraw at some point between now and midnight which isn't happening

While that system of having ballots mailed before mid October is 100% stupid (especially in a non once-in-a-century pandemic election year) if that's true and they can't get his name off ballots or change deadlines, even with the hackish NC supreme court GOP majority and all, it might be time for the AP/NYT/us to call the gubernatorial election for Stein already. To be fair, however, those that vote by mail the most by far are old people and college educated partisan liberals, two of the least likely demographic groups to split-ticket. Historically the vast majority of those that do split ticket are early in person suburbanite types, often more educated but the actual moderates/independents and not your average research triangle liberal in Raleigh-Durham that are certainly Harris/Stein voters no matter what.

The Trump/Stein demographic is likely to be the early in person suburban wine mom/white lady, not to be confused with the suburban childless pet ladies who will be Harris/Stein and yes may vote by mail or early in person.

[Winehole23]

plays with dolls

https://x.com/girlbosswoman/status/1836870659609350619

[Blake]

Will Hunting you/we were big time wrong about this guy. He makes Daniel Cameron look competent by comparison. And Josh Stein isn't even a good candidate for the Democrats but he may have won by default if this loser stays/stayed in the race.

He frequented porn sites including "Nude Africa" despite being married, called himself a "Black Nazi", and posted on the internet in 2010 that he wanted to bring back slavery and own slaves. Not a joke.

https://www.wect.com/2024/09/19/repo...ng-cnn-report/

I think the GOP should just completely give up on nominating these non-articulate, non-intellectual, non-thoroughly vetted black candidates going forward. Either pick a competent white dude or pick a true "exception" like Byron Donalds. This guy makes Herschel Walker look passable by comparison, but candidate quality again seems to be a big problem that the GOP can't get through their thick skulls since and including 2018. The senate candidates up north are decent this time around, but they'll have to be carried by the presidential ticket. Kari Lake is hyper-polarizing (someone like Ducey would have won the seat easily) and Sam Brown is a nobody... Laxalt running again I think would win (if Trump wins NV) because he's got name recognition, no big scandals and would perform in line with Trump. I think Sheehy wins fairly comfortably and Moreno wins close especially due to Springfield but again an underperformance up and down the ballot.

I don't think this hurts Trump's chances in NC given that these upper south type states tend to vote Democrat governor at the state level on the same ticket as GOP at the federal level, but, it seems the GOP still hasn't learned their lesson from 2022, 2018, even 2012 on candidate quality.

Reminds me of that Chapelle Show character where he was a black white supremacist

[Leetonidas]

Doubling down on a loser bold strategy Cotton.

Thanks for handing NC to the Dems

[daslicer]

He's also running an evangelical anti-abortion campaign despite having had a convenience abortion with his wife early in their marriage. For thee, but not for me, mentality.

He's also had a long history of posting antisemitic comments, when Israel-Hamas is a top-five issue and his Democrat opponent is Jewish (albeit a big time carpetbagger). NC is not at all a Jewish heavy state (the few that exist are NY/NJ/DC transplants) but it's a bad look anywhere you go.

With a proper candidate, even a generic R the GOP should have won this race by a comfortable margin against carpetbagger Josh Stein who is absolutely a misfit for the candidacy, but when your opponent is this bad sometimes you can win by default.


So did Old Joe weeks and even days before he did not. I could definitely see something similar here.



It's dumb to group Trump in that same category especially when there's massive question marks about your (non-democratically nominated) presidential candidate. It's a bit of a race to the bottom for sure but both Old Joe in his current condition and Harris were two of the worst candidates the Democrats could have picked to run against Trump. I don't think there's any doubt someone like Shapiro, Whitmer, Mark Kelly beat Trump.

As a North Carolinian I can say you are off about this. For the last 30 years the Republicans have lost the majority of times when running for the governor of NC and that's even with a generic candidate. NC loves to ticket split. Republicans have only won the governorship of NC only once in the last 8 election cycles.

[z0sa]

Black Nazis
tranny loving hypocrites

[Spurs Homer]

When is the media going to report and show all his porn stories, notes, comments about pissing on his wifes sister, getting pissed on while he was anal ing her and all his other family-friendly rantings?

would all this be exposed if he was a democrat?

[Spurs Homer]

it...here are some...long video but you can ff to his writings....


today's GOP and trumps favorite politician!

[Millennial_Messiah]

As a North Carolinian I can say you are off about this. For the last 30 years the Republicans have lost the majority of times when running for the governor of NC and that's even with a generic candidate. NC loves to ticket split. Republicans have only won the governorship of NC only once in the last 8 election cycles.

Yes, I know, and that's why I've been saying people are completely off base when saying that this is doom for Trump in NC. State level elections particularly governor are much bluer in NC than federal. While there is near zero ticket splitting in federal-vis-a-vis-federal elections (Thom Tillis overperformed Trump by 0.2%), the state level elections are a different ballgame.

A great example is 2004 where the Democrat governor candidate won by 12% in NC while Bush defeated Kerry by 12% in NC on the same ballot. That's a relatively massive 24% ticket split between governor and POTUS. Obviously pre polarization, but polarization effect has been much less for state-level elections (see recent results out of Kansas, Michigan, Kentucky) compared to federal-level elections.

I was saying simply that a NPJ mid-atlantic oligarch elitist type like Stein is a poor candidate for governor of a southern state like NC, not that a generic D is a poor candidate for governor of NC at all. Typically you get moderate or blue dog southern democrat governor types who will back the national Dems but not be hackish and most importantly native sons of NC or the surrounding southern area, not an NPJ elite from DC. That's just not North Carolina's "type". But they would pick him over what Robinson has shown to be, of course, even if he's not the carpetbagger in the race.

The Kamala campaign and the national Dems will try to spam the out of this in NC, but it won't work. As daslicer and I have been saying all along, it's a pink state at the federal level and a light-blue state on the gubernatorial. I don't think this even affects any U.S. House races. The worst case scenario is it could impact some down-ballot state races, but the state maps are drawn in such a way that the NC GOP will obtain or come close to a state legislature supermajority either way.

There has long been a heavy ticket split tradition here.

[Winehole23]

“Mein Kampf is a good read,” the user, dubbed “minisoldr,” wrote in a thread seeking book recommendations. “It’s very informative and not at all what I thought it would be. It’s a real eye opener.”

The Nude Africa user minisoldr also wrote extensively and in graphic detail about having extramarital sex with his wife’s sister

link

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

this is perfect, Robinson's new campaign manager is ex-con Jack Burkman

https://x.com/Jack_Burkman/status/1837999854699643258

[Winehole23]

Burkman got out over his skis

https://x.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1838192328873247148

[Winehole23]

Mark Robinson is the inevitable result of the dissolution of the Republican Party from a conservative opposition to a movement of cranks, lunatics, trolls, and jackasses. He went viral ranting at a city council meeting and they made him Lt. Governor. It’s not a party anymore. It’s the comments section come to life.

[Winehole23]

Big news, Mark Robinson burned his hand on a truck at a car show last night

https://x.com/wxbrad/status/1839990829688991873

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

https://x.com/RobinsonWarRoom/status/1850195135511896278

[UNT Eagles 2016]

https://x.com/RobinsonWarRoom/status/1850195135511896278

It'd be a miracle if Stein could pull Kamala over the top in NC but resident political expert Will Hunting doesn't think it's really possible because NC tends to vote in Democrat governors on the same ballot as GOP presidential candidates and they've done that every time in the last like 48 years outside of 2008 (Obama) and 2012 (their only GOP governor and only one term).

[Blake]

https://x.com/RobinsonWarRoom/status/1850195135511896278

Rofl Vance about to endorse the black Nazi

[Will Hunting]

It'd be a miracle if Stein could pull Kamala over the top in NC but resident political expert Will Hunting doesn't think it's really possible because NC tends to vote in Democrat governors on the same ballot as GOP presidential candidates and they've done that every time in the last like 48 years outside of 2008 (Obama) and 2012 (their only GOP governor and only one term).

It's not even that, I think the concept of "reverse coattails" is a myth. The top of the ticket obviously does a lot to impact down ballot votes, but the reverse never happens, particularly when we're talking about state vs. federal elections.

North Carolina also consistently votes 6% to the right of the country in presidential elections (e.g., Obama won NC in 2008 after winning the PV by 7%), and Kamala isn't winning the PV by nearly that much.