2006 Playoff Minute Distribution

[ploto]

You will see Rasho in the game during the first quarter of game 1 against Sacramento. Mark my words. He is totally outplaying Nazr, and Rasho has more than proven he can play in the play-offs. It was kind of funny last night- Pop went down the bench early in the fourth quarter and told certain players not in the game at that time that they were done for the night- Manu, NVE and RASHO! Pop made Nazr play garbage time last night.

[spurster]

In 1999, the Spurs had an 8 man rotation of Robinson, Duncan, Elliott, Elie, Johnson, Rose, Jackson, AD/Kerr.

You forgot Will the Thrill here, who got significant minutes except for the finals. I don't remember Kerr doing much, but you add him in, then it was a 10-man rotation for the most part.

In 2003, the Spurs had an 8 man rotation of Robinson, Duncan, Bowen, Jackson, Parker, Rose, Ginobili, Claxton.

I think Kerr helped a little bit. There was WIllis's elbow, too, but he wasn't in a lot after that.

In 2005, the Spurs had an 8 man rotation of Mohammed, Duncan, Bowen, Ginobili, Parker, Horry, Barry, Udrih.

With Devin and Rasho injured when the playoffs started, it wasn't too difficult to settle on this rotation.

Starting this playoffs, all the Spurs are relatively healthy. I'd expect Duncan, Nazr, and Horry for the bigman rotation with Rasho coming in when Nazr is being particularly stupid.

For the point guard rotation, I think it start as Parker and van Exel, but that van Exel will be dropped when the better teams take advantage of him.

For the swingman rotation, I think it will stay Manu, Bowen, Barry, and Finley with Barry and Manu picking up backup point minutes later in the playoffs.

Another issue is how much the Spurs will play Duncan plus 4 3-point shooters.

[101A]

rotations

Last year off the Bench:

Horry, Barry, Udrih

This year:

Horry, Finley, Van Exel THEN Barry, Udrih

...and people wonder why some of us are confident.

[Que Gee]

I cannot see how we get Van Exel in this rotation.. Barry did more than fine in games 6 and 7 last year backing up Tony as PG. He has plenty of experience at point guard since he was the Sonics starting point guard, I wish Pop would just let him run it. He can take minutes at the 3 spot, and backing up the 1 for TP. Barry should get 15 to 20 between the two spots. Nick? , I'd just as much give Beno the same. Nick's done nothing better then Beno this year, and Beno got your precious "experience" last year, which I think is totally overrated anyway.

[T Park]

Nick's done nothing better then Beno this year,

Not once has Nick had a problem bring the ball up against a pressing backcourt.

Nor has he darn near singlehandidly lose a game like Beno last night.


You people that hate Van Exel are gonna be pissed when he bags those threes against Sacramento.

[Fabbs]

I don't know why some of you have Barry on "probation" and Finley and VanX being locks. I do see we have almost all boardies seeing what Barry can and has contributed and potentially can keep up, including Pop.

Diggin the thread timvp, but it seems like it's best to not "lock in" to a preconcieved # of minutes but stay flexible regarding Barry Fin and Van Ex. Of the three, lets hope they all are hot.

But if not and they are brickin, it seems like in order Barry, Fins, then VanX give you the most non shot production. Barry has proven himself as backup pg, I say let him swing between pg, SG and small F depending on the need.

Last year I loved our ability to morph regarding the team we were playing. Banging with the Denver thugs, then running with the Suns. Then mixing with the Pistions. Think we should employ our whole arsenal again.

[theroc5]

C Nazr Mohammed -- 22
PF Tim Duncan -- 36
SF Bruce Bowen -- 34
SG Manu Ginobili -- 32
PG Tony Parker -- 36

BENCH
PF Robert Horry -- 28
SF Michael Finley -- 25
PG Nick Van Exel -- 10
PG/SG Barry ------- 7
Rasho and gain get micro min unless were blowing the team out

[Rick Von Braun]

I will use last playoffs' average minutes per game distribution as a starting point:

Starters:
Nazr Mohammed - 23
Tim Duncan - 38
Bruce Bowen - 35
Manu Ginobili - 34
Tony Parker - 37

Bench:
Robert Horry - 27
Michael Finley - 24
Nick Van Exel - 11

Sporadic minutes/game (not playing all games):
Rasho Nesterovic - 7
Fabricio Oberto - 3
Brent Barry - 11*
Beno Udrih - 5

*Barry will play the most games in this group.

[ploto]

I think some of you failed basic math.
48 x 5= 240 minutes. Some of you have totals that aren't even close!

[ploto]

This might be the year Pop goes crazy with his rotations. Everyone is relatively healthy and prone to sucking at any given minute.

I agree. I think the past couple of weeks heading into the play-offs have shown this to be the case. Pop has even talked about finding the right combination each night. EVERYONE said the rotation would shorten at the end of the season, but it didn't. On the contrary, Pop looked like he wanted to make sure they were all ready for their contribution.

Just to give people a hard time. On spurs.com they have the lead story about the start of the play-offs. The picture they chose-- Tim, Tony, Manu, Bruce and RASHO in the starter's huddle

[Rick Von Braun]

I think some of you failed basic math.
48 x 5= 240 minutes. Some of you have totals that aren't even close!

Nope, you are mistaken. Those are average minutes per game, and you can have players with those average minutes played without playing all games. The scenario I showed above is perfectly possible.

This is the last year's playoffs average minutes per game distribution:

 Player            Games  Minutes
 1 duncan,tim        23    37.8
 2 ginobili,manu     23    33.6
 3 parker,tony       23    37.3
 4 horry,robert      23    26.9
 5 mohammed,nazr     23    23.0
 6 barry,brent       23    24.1
 7 bowen,bruce       23    35.4
 8 robinson,glenn    13     8.7
 9 udrih,beno        21    11.5
10 brown,devin       12     5.0
11 nesterovic,rasho  15     7.6
12 massenburg,tony    9     3.1

BTW, you can clearly see that the Spurs used an eight (8) player rotation, with Beno missing only two games. IMHO, Brent Barry will be this year Beno's, contributing to many games with the only difference that the Spurs will play a nine (9) player rotation (or close to it, since Brent will not play all the games).

[ploto]

Actually you are wrong. Mathematically speaking, the total of all averages should EXCEED 240 minutes, as some players will not play in every game. You can not only list 230 minutes and say the rest will hardly play. It does not work that way. The rest, if they only play in some games, will have to total more than 10 minutes on average from among them all.

[ploto]

Nope, you are mistaken. Those are average minutes per game, and you can have players with those average minutes played without playing all games. The scenario I showed above is perfectly possible.

This is the last year's playoffs average minutes per game distribution:

 Player            Games  Minutes
 1 duncan,tim        23    37.8
 2 ginobili,manu     23    33.6
 3 parker,tony       23    37.3
 4 horry,robert      23    26.9
 5 mohammed,nazr     23    23.0
 6 barry,brent       23    24.1
 7 bowen,bruce       23    35.4
 8 robinson,glenn    13     8.7
 9 udrih,beno        21    11.5
10 brown,devin       12     5.0
11 nesterovic,rasho  15     7.6
12 massenburg,tony    9     3.1

BTW, you can clearly see that the Spurs used an eight (8) player rotation, with Beno missing only two games. IMHO, Brent Barry will be this year Beno's, contributing to many games with the only difference that the Spurs will play a nine (9) player rotation (or close to it, since Brent will not play all the games).

Rasho played in 15 of 23 games even being injured. That does not in my opinion say he was completely out of the rotation.

[Rick Von Braun]

Actually you are wrong. Mathematically speaking, the total of all averages should EXCEED 240 minutes, as some players will not play in every game. You can not only list 230 minutes and say the rest will hardly play. It does not work that way. The rest, if they only play in some games, will have to total more than 10 minutes on average from among them all.

I honestly have no time to explain... the sum of all players with minutes ~255... in excess of 240. The excess is justified by some players not playing all games.

The 8 players in the rotation playing all games in the scenario I described is 229 minutes. The 7 players in the rotation that played all games in last year's playoffs is 219. In both cases the excess of minutes is taken by players that do not necessarily play all the games.

Cheers

[spurschick]

After what I witnessed last night, I would rather give backup PG minutes to Brent and bring Beno and Nick in if we're up by 20. Nick has been making some really bad decisions (I'm glad he's retiring this summer) and Beno is starting to get that deer in the headlights look again.

And it's looking like Rob is going to be our saviour in the middle again. Can we please find a way to get Dwight Howard?

[ploto]

I honestly have no time to explain... the sum of all players with minutes ~255... in excess of 240. The excess is justified by some players not playing all games.

The sum that some posters gave was only 230. That is what I am talking about.

Believe me, my 4.0 GPA with a degree in mathematics tells me I know what I am talking about. I don't need you to explain anything to me. I am not arguing with the figures from last season. I am telling them that their predictions are wrong.

I was not even talking about you and your prediction. If you actually bothered to read what I wrote:

"Mathematically speaking, the total of all averages should EXCEED 240 minutes, as some players will not play in every game."

[aaronstampler]

1) I think Nazr is playing too poorly and Rasho too well (for Rasho) for him to be banished like many people expect. If teams go small against us, it's one thing, but if they put a traditional lineup out there, I expect Rasho to play. The only team that we've established he definitely can't play against is the Pistons, because of their rebounding. And the Suns go small. But he should contribute in the first two rounds and maybe more if Phx is out.

2) Brent should be the backup PG. Bring him in at the start of the 2nd quarter when Tony goes out. Since Manu exists at the 7 min mark and comes back at the start of the 2nd quarter as well, the two can share ballhandling duties, and they're pretty much the two best passers on the team. I really like when the two of them are on the floor together. NVE takes too many horrible shots and plays no defense. Beno gets too intimidated against the good teams. But if I had to pick between the two, I'd still pick the latter. 82 games is 82 games, and Beno has clearly outperformed Nick.

Here's my rotation...

PF Timmah! 39
SF Bruuuuce 33
C T-Rex 16
SG Gino 34
PG TP 38

6. Roho 26
7. Findog 24
8. Bones 18
9. 'Sho 12

Works out to a nice 160 to 80 or 2:1 ratio of starters to bench.

[T Park]

and Beno has clearly outperformed Nick.

lmao

no he has not....

[aaronstampler]

check 82games.com and get back to me.

[Rick Von Braun]

The sum that some posters gave was only 230. That is what I am talking about.

You could safely assume that most people estimated the minutes of the 8-9 main players rotations... it is perfectly fine if they are under 240... once you consider the sporadic minutes of the other 3-4 players in the bench, everything evens out.

Believe me, my 4.0 GPA with a degree in mathematics tells me I know what I am talking about.

Good for you. Nice to have good math skills.

I don't need you to explain anything to me. I am not arguing with the figures from last season. I am telling them that their predictions are wrong.

See my response above... it is reasonable to assume people didn't want to put the few minutes of the remaining players. I didn't want to offend you or anything

I was not even talking about you and your prediction.

Your post was right after my post, which is why I responded

If you actually bothered to read what I wrote:


"Mathematically speaking, the total of all averages should EXCEED 240 minutes, as some players will not play in every game."

I did, and you are still missing the point. Once again, most people wrote the averages of the 8-9 players with most minutes. Small differences can be covered by minutes given to the rest of the bench.

There is a difference in estimating the minutes of the top 8-9 players and saying that those are the only minutes used by the team with the rest of the bench getting zero minutes. Just look at all the playoff rosters of all the teams in the playoffs. Players rotations of 8-9 players are common, but the rest of the bench still get some few minutes here and there.

[Bruno]

Rasho played in 15 of 23 games even being injured. That does not in my opinion say he was completely out of the rotation.

Rick Von Braun is right. Spurs have played with an 8 player rotation (TP/Manu/Bruce/TD/Nazr/Udrih/Horry/Barry) and it's a fact not an opinion.

A player rotation player is a player the coach planed to use before the game and use when everything is right. Rasho has been used in specific case (foul troubles, troubles on a specific player, blowout or garbage time), he was a situational player not a rotational player.