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my money's on anywhere that gives SA no rain
Don't say such things.
my money's on anywhere that gives SA no rain
Damn, how freaky would it be if it became a cat 5 in 5-6 days and was threatening New Orleans.
that would really suck.
Not freaky at all really. New Orleans will be hit with a strong hurricane again. It isn't an if, it is a when.
No, I understand that, I just mean it happening on the one year mark of Katrina.
True, I didn't even realize it but yeah i guess it has been one year.
"I" will be competing wtih you for the better story.
000
Wtnt45 Knhc 250835
Tcdat5
Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052006
500 Am Edt Fri Aug 25 2006
Despite Westerly Shear... The Tropical Depression Appears To Be
Approaching Tropical Storm Strength. Deep Convection Has
Intensified Near The Center With Improving Banding Features In The
Eastern Semicircle. However It Appears The Center Is On The
Western Edge Of The Thunderstorms... As Suggested By A Notch In The
Deep Convection Pattern On Night-vis Satellite Images. Satellite
Classifications Range From 35-45 Kt But Are A Little Closer To The
Center Of The Deep Convection. With The Uncertainity In Initial
Position.. 30 Kt Will Be Kept Until Visible Images Allow Us To Get
A Better Handle On Where The System Is Located.
The Track Forecast Seems Like The Easier Part Of The Forecast This
Morning. The Depression Is Speeding Westward At About The Same
Rate... 280/17. Middle-level Ridging Should Remain Strong Over
The Western Atlantic Ocean... Keeping The System Moving In A
General West To West-northwestward Heading For The Next Couple Of
Days. The Nogaps/ukmet Show Stronger Ridging And A Weaker
Tropical Cyclone... Leading To A Track Closer To Yucatan In About 5
Days. The Gfs And Gfdl Temporarily Weaken The Ridge In A Few
Days... Which Allow A Stronger System To Move To The Northwest
Closer To Cuba. I'm Inclined To Stick Closer To The First Option
... Leading To A Small Westward Shift Of The Track Forecast.
The Intensity Forecast Is Tricky To Say The Least. First Of All...
The System Has To Survive The Strong Westerly Shear It Will Be
Experiencing For The Next Day Or Two. This Is By No Means Certain
And It Wouldn't Be A Huge Surprise For The Depression To Dissipate
In The "graveyard" Of The Eastern Caribbean Sea... Like Some Of The
Global Models Are Forecasting. However...if The Tropical Cyclone
Survives...and This Is A Big If...global Models Remove The Shear By
Fracturing The Mid-oceanic Trough In The Western Caribbean. This
Pattern Change Sends An Upper-level Low Into The Gulf Of Mexico In
3 Days While Building Upper Ridging Near The Depression. This Could
Allow The System To Strengthen Especially As It Enters The Western
Caribbean. On The Other Hand... Global Models Have Notoriously
Weakened Upper-level Cyclones Too Quickly In The Past And The
Mid-oceanic Trough Has Been Quite Persistent And Stronger-than-
Normal In That Area This Season. After Saying All This... The
Intensity Forecast Will Be Quite Similar To Previous. However If
The Low Shear Environment The Global Models Are Forecasting
Materializes In The Western Caribbean... Td Five Could Be A Lot
Stronger Than Shown Below In The Later Periods.
Forecast Positions And Max Winds
Initial 25/0900z 13.4n 65.7w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 25/1800z 13.9n 67.8w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 26/0600z 14.8n 70.4w 40 Kt
36hr Vt 26/1800z 15.6n 72.8w 45 Kt
48hr Vt 27/0600z 16.5n 75.0w 55 Kt
72hr Vt 28/0600z 18.5n 79.5w 65 Kt
96hr Vt 29/0600z 21.0n 84.0w 65 Kt
120hr Vt 30/0600z 23.5n 87.5w 65 Kt
$$
Forecaster Blake/avila
000
Wtnt45 Knhc 251457
Tcdat5
Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052006
1100 Am Edt Fri Aug 25 2006
The Center Of Tropical Depression Five Is Very Hard To Locate This
Morning. Microwave Satellite Imagery Suggests That The Center Is
Located West Of The Large Convective Mass That Has Persisted Through
The Night...and Close To The Previous Forecast Tracks. However...a
12z Observation From Ship 6zxg Suggest The Center Is Farther To The
South And East...which Would Suggest A More Westward Motion At A
Slower Forward Speed. Animation Of Visible Imagery Has Not Yet
Helped Resolve This...as It Is Difficult To See Westerly Low-level
Winds. The Initial Position Will Be Closer To That Of The
Microwave Data. Satellite Intensity Estimates Remain 35-45 Kt...
But Due To The Uncertainty In The Center Position The Cyclone Will
Remain A Depression On This Package.
The Initial Motion Is A Somewhat Uncertain 280/13...somewhat Slower
Than Earlier. There Is Little Change In The Synoptic Reasoning Or
The Track Forecast For The First 72-96 Hr. The Depression Is South
Of A Low/mid-level Ridging Over The Western Atlantic...which Should
Keep The System Moving Generally West-northwestward. Model
Guidance Supports This Scenario With A Tight Clustering Of Tracks
Through The Northwestern Caribbean...with The Exception Of The Gfdl
Which Continues To Call For A Track Over Cuba. Some Spread Appears
In The Guidance After 96 Hr...with The Gfs And Nogaps Building The
Ridge Across The Gulf Of Mexico Enough To Turn The Cyclone
Westward...while The Ecmwf And Canadian Models Having Enough Of A
Weakness For The Cyclone To Turn Northward. The New Forecast Track
Is An Update Of The Previous Package For The First 96 Hr...then
Slows The System Down In Response To The Guidance Spread.
The Intensity Forecast Is Perhaps Becoming Less Tricky. The
Large-scale Models Are Coming Into Better Agreement That The
Upper-level Trough Over The Western Caribbean Will Move Westward
And Allow An Upper-level Ridge To Develop Over The Western
Caribbean. Should This Happen...as Some Of The Models Have Been
Known To Move Upper-level Lows Too Quickly Westward...it Would
Reduce The Current 15-20 Kt Shear And Produce A More Favorable
Environment. The Ships Model Calls For The Depression To Become A
Hurricane In About 60 Hr And Reach 87 Kt By 120 Hr. Given The
Uncertainties In The Initial Position And Intensity...the New
Intensity Forecast Is The Same As The Old Forecast...calling For
The Cyclone To Become A Hurricane In About 72 Hr. However...if The
Shear Decreases As Much As Forecast...the Cyclone Could Be
Significantly Stronger Than Currently Forecast After 72 Hr.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is Scheduled To
Investigate The Depression This Afternoon. If The Aircraft Finds
The Center In A Different Location...significant Changes In The
Forecast Track Could Be Necessary On The Next Advisory.
Forecast Positions And Max Winds
Initial 25/1500z 13.5n 66.4w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 26/0000z 14.2n 68.5w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 26/1200z 15.0n 71.1w 40 Kt
36hr Vt 27/0000z 15.9n 73.6w 45 Kt
48hr Vt 27/1200z 16.9n 76.0w 55 Kt
72hr Vt 28/1200z 19.0n 80.5w 65 Kt
96hr Vt 29/1200z 21.5n 84.5w 65 Kt
120hr Vt 30/1200z 23.5n 87.5w 65 Kt
$$
Forecaster Beven
More models for your viewing pleasure.
This model is intesesting, if you hit "FWD" in the menu and let the animation run, it shows the system hitting somewhere between Corpus and Houston in like 144 hours. Granted that the model errors that far out are large.
More Models
Anywhere on the Gulf Coast right now is a possibility, but to be honest if I was in NO I would not be happy. Not one bit.
That red circle is the center of the storm, and its moving too fast for the storms to keep up with it. This storm may kill itself off this way. Its on the verge of either blowing up, or dying. Hopefully it dies, because as hot as the Gulf and W. Carribean are, we dont' need storms in that area.
Okay, weather geeks: do hurricanes ever hit south of the Equator?
Yes. They are extrmely rare in the south Atlantic although one did hit Brazil a few years back. They do hit Australia though, but they aren't called hurricanes. Same with a different name.
Rarely? Often? Do we just not hear about them because they don't affect us?
Kinda cool how it was spinning "backwards" due to the corilois effect.
The Kori Ellis effect?
It is official.
WTF, will somebody tell the National Weather Service that all caps suck?
all caps suck, and
suck worse in low-resolution italics with suposedly "cool" low-contrast light grey letters on dark grey b/g
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