Ernesto

[MannyIsGod]

Say o to Ernesto. This one's going to turn out to be a big .

[MannyIsGod]

000
Wont41 Knhc 241920
Dsaat
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement...corrected
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
315 Pm Edt Thu Aug 24 2006

Corrected For Date In Header

Reports From An Air Force Reconnaissance Plane Indicate That The
Tropical Wave Moving Westward Through The Windward Islands Has
Developed A Closed Wind Circulation...and Advisories On Either A
Tropical Depression Or Tropical Storm Will Be Initiated At 5 Pm
Ast. Maximum Winds At This Time Appear To Be Just Below Tropical
Storm Strength...but It Is Possible That Stronger Winds May Be
Observed Prior To Advisory Time.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[Solid D]

Thanks for the heads-up. I hadn't heard about it, Manny.

Speaking of Ernesto, anyone ever eat at Ernesto's in SA? Good food.

[midgetonadonkey]

I have an Uncle Ernesto. We call him Neto.

[MannyIsGod]

Early model runs all point to the Gulf. The Gulf is hot as right now, too.

[2centsworth]

I'll take anything that will water my grass.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

Mother er better steer clear of me. I really don't want my first memories of living in my new place to be of it being blown off the face of the earth.

[AlamoSpursFan]

I thought this was a car sales thread.

[jcrod]

Thanks for the heads-up. I hadn't heard about it, Manny.

Speaking of Ernesto, anyone ever eat at Ernesto's in SA? Good food.

For some reason this is what I thought of when I saw the le. It is good food, haven't been there in a while.

[tlongII]

We have an Ernesto's here as well. Good Italian food.

[Ginofan]

in' mexicans

[Das Texan]

this thing just kinda blew up in the last half a day or so no?

[ashbeeigh]

this thing just kinda blew up in the last half a day or so no?

Yeah, if I'm not mistaken they were saying it wasn't anything too big last night. What a buncha liars.

[1369]

00
Wtnt45 Knhc 242052
Tcdat5
Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al052006
500 Pm Edt Thu Aug 24 2006

An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft Worked Long And Hard This
Afternoon To Close Off The Tropical Wave Moving Through The
Windward Islands...and Found Enough Northwesterly Winds Late This
Afternoon To Consider The System A Tropical Cyclone. The Aircraft
Just Passed Through The Center And Reported Peak Flight-level Winds
Of 39 Kt...which Corresponds To About 30 Kt At The Surface.
Although Barbados Reported Sustained Winds Of 33 Kt Earlier This
Afternoon...the Direction Of Those Winds Suggested A Convective
Outflow Or Downburst Not Representative Of The Cyclone Circulation.
Aircraft Observations In The Bands Well To The East Of The Center
Indicate Winds There Are Also Below Tropical Storm Strength. With
The Center Already In The Caribbean And Now Moving Away From The
Windward Islands...no Warnings Are Being Issued. However...
Interests There Should Exercise Caution Until Winds And Seas
Subside.

The Initial Motion Is 280/19. A Low To Mid-level Ridge Of High
Pressure In The Southwestern Atlantic Is Currently Providing A
Westward Steering Flow...and This Ridge Should Remain Roughly In
Place Over The Next Few Days. The Other Key Player Is An
Upper-level Trough In The Western Caribbean. As The Cyclone Moves
Into The Central Caribbean...this Trough Will Be Providing Both
Westerly Shear And And A Northward Steering Component. The Gfdl
Responds To This By Gradually Lifting The Track Around The Upper
Low And Toward The Greater Antilles. The Global Models Are For The
Most Part Farther South And Keep The System Weaker In Response To
The Shear. I Am Reminded That The Global Models Correctly Forecast
The Dissipation Of Chris A While Back...and The Gfdl Doesn't Always
Handle Shear Well. The Official Forecast Leans Toward The Southern
Option.

Water Vapor Imagery Shows Both A Dry Environment As Well As Some
Westerly Shear Ahead Of The Cyclone In The Caribbean.
However...the Gfs Retrogrades The Upper Low And If This Occurs
Would Result In A More Favorable Environment For Strengthening.
The Ships Model...which Is Based On The Gfs Fields...responds To
This And Takes The Cyclone Up To Hurricane Strength In 60 Hours.
The Gfdl Intensities Are Lower...but This Results From A Gfdl Track
Which Is Over Land. The Official Forecast Tempers The Ships
Guidance With The Minimal Development Shown By The Global Models.


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 24/2100z 12.9n 62.4w 30 Kt
12hr Vt 25/0600z 13.2n 65.5w 35 Kt
24hr Vt 25/1800z 13.8n 68.0w 40 Kt
36hr Vt 26/0600z 14.6n 70.2w 45 Kt
48hr Vt 26/1800z 15.5n 72.5w 50 Kt
72hr Vt 27/1800z 17.0n 76.5w 55 Kt
96hr Vt 28/1800z 18.5n 80.5w 60 Kt
120hr Vt 29/1800z 20.5n 85.0w 60 Kt

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[spurs=bling]

if it does become a hurricane we should send Johnny Blaze to the location to take some video and he will have a center piece story too.

[MannyIsGod]

that, if it becomes a hurricane and comes to Texas, *I* am going to chase it. Anyone wanting to lend me their camera is free.

[Guru of Nothing]

that, if it becomes a hurricane and comes to Texas, *I* am going to chase it. Anyone wanting to lend me their camera is free.

You are welcome to set up a base camp in Jackson at my place, if things move this way.

You just better bring me some music!

[MannyIsGod]

[Guru of Nothing]

Seriously, you are welcome here.

This is my 6th summer here, and it is by far the hottest one (nearly San Antonio hot) and I assume it's even hotter moving South. My gut reaction is that this storm will be epic.

[NorCal510]

weatherman manny

[ashbeeigh]

weatherman manny

you're a bit late there norcal.

[spurschick]

C'mon you bas - bring it!*








* Without killing anyone or destroying anyone's home.

[1369]

C'mon you bas - bring it!*








* Without killing anyone or destroying anyone's home.

Just no rain for SA or else we lose the really cool limited edition wet-T bravatar.

[Manu20]

[midgetonadonkey]

Can we get a vbookie on where it's gonna hit? My money is on New Orleans.