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i know man, hes ranked ahead of ben wallace
Suggesting that Hollinger is an idiot is outta line. C'mon guys, take a look at the rankings for a minute. The article is based on Hollinger's projected PER for each player for this season. Butler is an outlier because he was very productive when he played last year, but he only played 13mins per game.
See, read the article and it makes some kind of sense, even though we all know that Butler is not the 6th best centre in the league, and because Pop brings young guys along slowly, will have no chance to live up to this.
i know man, hes ranked ahead of ben wallace
I think if it suggests anything, it's that NBA centers SUCK.
All the good big men are Power Forwards anyways. Shaq is the last of a dying breed....
Can somebody relay this to Pop???, because Butler is probably going to be the Ballboy of the game or some like that.
I guess the next time I can't read a "insider" article, I just won't worry about it. Probably crap anyways.
yeah i dont think john hollinger knows alot of NBA basketball, he sounds like hes a newbie to journalism or somethin
Big Ben 11th.
Where s Rasho?
John Hollinger uses numerical data to back up his claims, so he's at least "credible", but these are still projections, based partly on his "gut" feeling about a player's potential and ability, so you should still be wary of it. I like the one person's suggestion to analyze his past projections and see how they panned out for specific players. Unfortunately, I don't have the time to do the research nor would I take the time even if I did. I just wanted to post and get your thoughts on the initial projection.
Truthfully, I think the 18pts and 11 rebounds per 40 MINUTES may not be that far off. If the kid only averages 10 minutes a game, that is less than 5 pts and 3 reb per game. With a crowded, more experienced frontcourt to take minutes away from him he'll likely stay in the 10-15 minute range, but with his proven ability to score in short minutes I think he might meet those expectations.
For the future, I hope he's a guy that can give 25-30 minutes and average 15/7. We'll see....
yeah he hasn't had a column breaking down stats for a couple years, what a newb.
It should also be noted that John Hollinger's PER is based on several different variables. That is why guys like Ben Wallace and Brad Miller are ranked behind Butler. Their dominance, whether it be rebounding/shotblocking or scoring points, is concentrated on one or two different categories. As good as Ben Wallace is, he gives a team almost nothing on the offensive end.
I agree with most posters that say Butler is ranked too high relative to other Centers, but the individual projections for Butler are not wrong in my opinion.
Hollinger held an ESPN chat yesterday to answer some critics, etc. Here are his comments on the rating system, Jackie Butler, and even Tony Parker. He seems to have clarified his statements a bit, and I was even wrong about his "subjectivity"....apparently projections are based on production changes of similar historical players (ref. Shawn Kemp).
Jeremy Vineland NJ: I do not see how you can rate Chris Paul higher than Allen Iverson, I understand he had a spectacular rookie season but to call him better than AI so soon, a bit crazy.
John Hollinger: I'm getting a lot of question along the lines of "how do you rate so-and-so ahead of so-and-so", so I think it's time to backtrack here.
John Hollinger: What you're seeing in the ratings are the projection for his Player Efficiency Rating for this season. PER, as I've discussed in here many teams, is a summary of a player's per-minute statistical effectiveness, but that still leaves some things out -- defense, durability, etc.
John Hollinger: A lot of people are looking at this like I'm saying Player X is better than Player Y, which isn't necessarily the case. That said, in the particular example you cited, it would not shock me at all if Paul outperformed Iverson this year.
John Hollinger: There is zero subjectivity in the projections -- it's built entirely off of similarity scores with other players of the same age, and then projecting future results based on what happend to those other similar players.
Henry (NY): While I liked Jackie Butler last year, is he really comparable to Shawn Kemp at this point in his career? How do you see him contributing this year once he gets healthy?
John Hollinger: He's a talented, offense-minded 6-10 guy with a weight problem who didn't go to college. Sounds a lot like Shawn Kemp to me. I realize the comparison isn't perfect, but no comparison between players ever is. Unless they're both named "Van Arsdale" that is.
As for Butler's immediate prospects, as I mentioned from France the Spurs really want him to get more in tune with that they're asking of him on D before he's going to play a lot of minutes. He probably won't play much in the early part of the year, and Fabricio Oberto may end up starting.
Thaddeus(Cape Cod, MA): I don't understand how you some of the PER's moved up or down so drastically. Like Butler, Howard, Jefferson, etc. . . Are these all based on other players or is there some subjectivity?
Patrick (St. Petersburg, FL): Shawn Kemp had a weight problem when he was young?
John Hollinger: That's kind of what I meant when I said the comparison isn't perfect. Also, Jackie doesn't have quite the same hops, etc.
casey tulsa oklahoma: when your own ratings came out...what player(s) suprised you being so high, and which player(s) seemed underrated? Based on your own opinion...
John Hollinger: Andrew Bogut's projection was much more optimistic than I would have guessed, as was Jackie Butler's. On the surprised-how-low front, I would say Ron Artest and Lamar Odom.
mark, philippines: do you think tony parker's jumpshot has improved enough to where defense's would respect it and not just clog the lanes?
John Hollinger: His J looked a little smoother in France, but if I'm guarding him I still make him prove it to me from out there before I let him blow by me for lay-ups.
Coaches and GMs likely look at stats like these all the time.
this is fresh proof that the PER stats don't mean
Eh, I'd probably be motivated to do it if someone had a readily available source of the data (projected and actual PERs). I'm not inclined to google all over the place to get the numbers.
More controversy the writer brings the beter he is.
So where are TD (PER 23.4), Amare (PER 18 in 3 games),... on that list (also listed as F/C)?Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Parker1
Jermaine Oneal at #4? Since when is he considered a Center?
He is listed as F/C.
Where is Diaw (PER 17.5) who started games as center?
To have a consistent ranking I had a look to true centers (listed 'C') last season PER ranking. Here is THE list
1 Yao Ming 25,9
2 Shaquille O'Neal 24,7
3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas 22,1
4 Marcus Camby 20,1
5 Alonzo Mourning 19,7
6 Mehmet Okur 19,1
7 Channing Frye 18,2
8 Brad Miller 17,6
9 Dan Gadzuric 17,4
10 Jake Tsakalidis 17,4
11 Eddy Curry 17,2
12 Martynas Andriuskevicius 15,7
13 Primoz Brezec 15,4
14 Andrew Bogut 15,3
15 Joel Przybilla 15,3
16 Jeff Foster 15,2
17 Chris Kaman 15,2
18 Nazr Mohammed 15,2
19 Samuel Dalembert 14,4
20 Brendan Haywood 13,8
21 Didier Ilunga-Mbenga 13,6
22 Dikembe Mutombo 12,9
23 Robert Swift 12,8
24 Tyson Chandler 12,3
hmmm.... this PER ranking seems a little bit stupid.
Tomorrow, I'll have a look to FC
doesn't he know that Dampier is the second best center in the league?
PER stats are USELESS.... Rafael Araujo would grab 20 rebounds and dish out 10 assists in 40 minutes per game according to that stat, of course he would never do that (random example)
Butler is never going to play 40 minutes a game as a spur, most likely not even 30 and if he does, he won't be jacking up enough shots to score that many points when you have tim ducan, the french and the manu flop playing next to him.
I guess DJ Mbenga will be an All-Star this year then with his PER stats...
Not with him hanging off your weenie rod.
I asked you once to stop using the word " " so much in your posts.
This is my last request.
We need a vBookie on this . . .
I don't know what you're talking about... but is "gai" better for ya ?
No. Try to expand your vocabulary beyond sexual slurs.
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