Jackie Butler is #6 Center - John Hollinger

[AFBlue]

Just thought I'd post this ESPN Insider Story. Hollinger lists Jackie Butler as the 6th best Center in the NBA according to his 06/07 projections. He's ahead of Bogut, Curry, Wallace, Miller, and a few more notables. Pretty lofty expectations...you think he's right?


2005-06 season: Butler was the Knicks' third-string center, but he was one of the team's most productive big men and should have played much more than he did. He wasn't expected to play a big role after joining the Knicks late in 2004-05, but Larry Brown's lineup-du-jour system ensured that everyone would get a chance, and Butler made the most of his. He shot 54.4% from the floor and had the eighth-best TS% among centers, while his 40-minute scoring and rebound rates (15.5 and 9.9) were solid.



The only negative for Butler was his 18.5 Turnover Ratio, which ranked in the bottom 10 among centers. He has to improve his ability to control the ball before he goes up for shot, and like almost all young big men has to learn how to set screens without moving.



Scouting report: At 6-10, 260 pounds, Butler is a widebody who can get position in the paint and his a nice touch around the basket. He's an instinctive scorer and despite his girth also proved a decent shot-blocker. Nonetheless, Butler's conditioning is a real worry. He looked like he was carrying an extra tire last season and needs to get his weight under control.



Butler's defense isn't as far along as his offense. He's a step slow and tends to resort to fouling to make up for it, averaging more than a foul every seven minutes last season. And although he blocked some shots and rebounded well, Butler's movement on defense left a lot to be desired. Again, conditioning was part of the problem.



2006-07 outlook: Butler signed a three-year offer sheet with San Antonio, and the Knicks declined to match it so they could spend four times as much money on Jared Jeffries. Of all the inane moves that Isiah Thomas has made, this one ranks right near the top. The Knicks had absolutely no idea what they had in Butler, envisioning him as their third-string center (you know, because Jerome James will turn the corner any day now) and thus not wanting to spend anything to keep him.



For the Spurs to get a young player of this quality this cheaply was highway robbery; all they were missing was the ski masks. Players of this size who can score at such a young age have an overwhelming track record of success. Butler's five most similar players at the same age are Shawn Kemp, Eddy Curry, Jermaine O'Neal, Carlos Boozer and Chris Webber. His projected stats for next year are monstrous --18.5 points and 11.3 rebounds per 40 minutes, 54.9% from the floor, and an 18.41 PER. He still needs to cut his foul rate and his calorie count, but he's been working out all summer in San Antonio and I expect him to be a revelation this season as the Spurs' starting center.




Most similar at age: Shawn Kemp

[AFBlue]

Here's the list of top 15...


1. Shaquille O'Neal, MIA
2005-06 season: Shaq came to Miami with the idea of leading the Heat to the championship, and seemed a little taken aback that he was essentially an innocent bystander while Dwyane Wade rode to... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
23.29
League Avg: +8.29
2005-06 PER: 24.47

2. Yao Ming, HOU
2005-06 season: Yo, Shaq -- pass the torch over here, buddy. Between a foot infection and a broken toe, Yao missed 25 games last year, but he played so well when he was in the lineup that there... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
22.00
League Avg: +7.00
2005-06 PER: 25.78

3. Zydrunas Ilgauskas, CLE
2005-06 season: The 7-3 giant re-signed with Cleveland as a free agent and delivered a strong offensive season before stagnating in the playoffs. His per-game averages took a hit because the Cavs... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
20.65
League Avg: +5.65
2005-06 PER: 21.98

4. Jermaine O'Neal, IND
2005-06 season: O'Neal was one of the best players in the East three years ago, but his star has faded a bit recently thanks to frequent injuries and reduced efficiency in the post. O'Neal missed... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
20.31
League Avg: +5.31
2005-06 PER: 20.50

5. Marcus Camby, DEN
2005-06 season: Most injury-prone players get worn down by all the breaks and sprains, and after a few years their effectiveness diminishes sharply. Camby is unusual in that he'll miss games with... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
19.00
League Avg: +4.00
2005-06 PER: 20.00

6. Jackie Butler, SA
2005-06 season: Butler was the Knicks' third-string center, but he was one of the team's most productive big men and should have played much more than he did. He wasn't expected to play a big role... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
18.26
League Avg: +3.26
2005-06 PER: 14.79

7. Andrew Bogut, MIL
2005-06 season: The first overall pick in the draft, Milwaukee played Bogut out of position but he still put together a solid rookie campaign. The preseason trade for Jamaal Magloire forced the... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
18.08
League Avg: +3.08
2005-06 PER: 15.21

8. Mehmet Okur, UTA
2005-06 season: Okur had the best season of his career in 2005-06 and even earned some All-Star consideration, taking over as Utah's go-to offensive player while Carlos Boozer was out. Much of the... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
18.01
League Avg: +3.01
2005-06 PER: 19.08

9. Eddy Curry, NY
2005-06 season: The Knicks centered much of their high hopes for the season around their unrealistic hopes for Curry, making a crazy bet by dealing an unprotected lottery pick to Chicago as part... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
17.82
League Avg: +2.82
2005-06 PER: 17.06

10. Dan Gadzuric, MIL
2005-06 season: Gadzuric signed a six-year, $36 million deal to stay with the Bucks in the offseason but almost immediately became lost in Milwaukee's center rotation. With Jamaal Magloire and... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
17.02
League Avg: +2.02
2005-06 PER: 17.28

11. Ben Wallace, CHI
2005-06 season: Big Ben had another amazing season at the defensive end, becoming the first player in history to record 100 blocks and 100 steals in six straight seasons. He was the only player... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
16.99
League Avg: +1.99
2005-06 PER: 17.54

12. Darko Milicic, ORL
2005-06 season: The Pistons swore they'd find minutes for Darko now that Larry Brown was gone ... only they didn't. Milicic played only 140 minutes for Detroit, mostly in garbage time, so Detroit... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
16.72
League Avg: +1.72
2005-06 PER: 15.21

13. Brad Miller, SAC
2005-06 season: Miller turned 30 toward the end of the season, and it appears he's starting to show his age. After three seasons at a near All-Star level, Miller's performance declined in nearly... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
16.50
League Avg: +1.50
2005-06 PER: 17.52

14. Jake Tsakalidis, MEM
2005-06 season: Somebody wanna tell me where that came from? A forgotten man who played just 279 minutes in his first season in Memphis, Tsakalidis took over the starting center spot late... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
16.12
League Avg: +1.12
2005-06 PER: 17.35

15. Nene Hilario, DEN
2005-06 season: Nene had a great preseason for the Nuggets and the club was looking forward to a breakout year, but instead they got a different kind of break. Nene blew out his knee two minutes... Complete Profile 2006-07
Projected PER
15.65
League Avg: +0.65
2005-06 PER: -54.54

[ShoogarBear]

Ranking Butler #6 is insane. There's a huge logical flaw in solely using per 48 minute stats as a basis of comparison.

[Mr. Body]

He is ranking them purely by PER (efficiency). He makes no other claim.

[ChumpDumper]

Jackie needs an asterisk for playing only 13mpg, but the numbers hint at his potential.

[T Park]

Eh.

Look at whos behind him.

Not exactly the all start centers list.


Not correct maybe, but not a TOTAL reach.

[polandprzem]

Jesus, and the spurs are nba champs 2007?

Seeya later

[ChumpDumper]

Jesus is always a champion, you commie bastid.

[ShoogarBear]

I probably overstated Hollinger's point, and yes I agree that it speaks to potential. But still, is there anyone here who wouldn't take either Wallace or Bogut for Butler straight up? I think it's unlikely that Butler is EVER better than Bogut.

Shoot, I'd even take Darko for Butler straight up.

[ChumpDumper]

True, Okur would kick ass on this team, too.

[ShoogarBear]

What Hollinger needs to do is publish his previous projected vs. actual PER for the past several years. If he has shown any reasonable correlation over the years, then I'd be willing to give him more credibility.

[leemajors]

What Hollinger needs to do is publish his previous projected vs. actual PER for the past several years. If he has shown any reasonable correlation over the years, then I'd be willing to give him more credibility.

i think he's fairly open to suggestion - tried emailing him about it?

[timvp]

Hollinger is sounding like the pissed Knicks fan that he is. The more minutes Butler gets, the more his stats will start to flatten out. Especially since on the Spurs, not even David Robinson was allowed much of a chance on the low block next to Tim Duncan.

Butler will be a good player but #6 in any category is high right now.

[1Parker1]

Jermaine Oneal at #4? Since when is he considered a Center?

[sa_butta]

Jermaine Oneal at #4? Since when is he considered a Center?

He is listed as F/C.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Look at whos behind him.

Not exactly the all start centers list.


Not correct maybe, but not a TOTAL reach.

Sincerely, Ben Wallace, A. Bogut.

[mrose31]

There are so many things wrong with these ratings its not even funny. Still think we could call up the Magic and trade Butler (18.26)for D. Howard (17.40). Worth a shot isn't it?

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

He isn't the 6th best centre in the league right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's close to that in 2 years time. The kid has gifts, and all he needs is to keep his weight down and learn from Timmy and Rob.

By the end of the season he'll be playing at least half a game, starting or not.

[ABDENOUR POWER]

I don't mean to be a Spurs hater..... but thats bull .

[ambchang]

I don't mean to be a Spurs hater..... but thats bull .

You're not, because it would be a big time homer to agree that Butler is > Wallace, Bogut, Darko, Howard, and a whole bunch of other centres last year or next.

[ploto]

Butler will be a good player but #6 in any category is high right now.

He's the #6 big man on the Spurs right now-- behind Tim, Fabricio, Rob, Francisco, and Matt.

[spurs=bling]

someone was high and wasted when they wrote that article....

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

Even if that is right, what are the chances he plays 40 minutes consistently EVER?

[Fillmoe]

way too funny...... is this dude really serious?

[gmanrulz]

damn with those kinda stats next season he shouldve been ranked higher than 6th