When do we make a change at the small forward position?

[Rick Von Braun]

I understood all that except the turnover part.



Bowen averages .80 t.o. per game.
Last season .82
The season before .77
When you go all the way back to 03-04 when he handled the ball much less (by your take and the facts) he averaged 1.1.

Sorry, I was looking at the TO/48min for the last 3 years.

04-05 1.041 TO/48min (his best year)
05-06 1.167 TO/48min
06-07 1.185 TO/48min

This is a small but steady increase that I attribute to handling the ball more, in particular when avoiding taking the three and attacking the basket.

I don't think this is his main problem though, just another contributing factor.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

great posts kori and timvp, I keep forgetting how big of a factor the rest of the team needs to be in the help defense or else Bowen often times finds himself screwed.


And you can't argue with the stats when all is said and done.

[timvp]

timvp, I'm curious as to what Bruce's +/- per 100 possessions was in 2001-02. The team looked hopelessly lost without him when he got hurt that year.

I don't have stats that go back that far, but I'm sure it was something ridiculous. When Bowen broke his finger and missed 23 games, the Spurs lost 12 of those 23 games. In the 23 games without him, they gave up 96 points per game. In the 26 games with him after the injury, the Spurs gave up 86 points per game.

So I'm sure the +/- per 100 possessions was impressive.

[Kori Ellis]

Since the 2004 WCSF, it was clear that Bowen's lock down D in the playoffs has lost a step or two by the simple fact that he was completely ineffective in fighting through screens. This was greatly exposed by the Lakers in that series.

In 2005, Bowen played damn well against Carmelo Anthony, Ray Allen, Shawn Marion and Richard Hamilton. Without Bowen shutting down those guys, the Spurs don't win the championship. I don't think you need me to go back and show how much he held down those players compared to when they played other teams.

Holy Moly, I missed that part of Rick's post the first time I read it. Bowen destroyed people in the 2005 playoffs.


Playoffs 2005

Carmelo Anthony
Against Spurs, 19.2 ppg on 42%.

Ray Allen
Against Spurs, 21.5 ppg on 43%. (In the first round he had averaged 32ppg)

Shawn Marion
Against Spurs, 7.8 ppg on 39%. (Over the first two rounds he had averaged over 22ppg on over 50% shooting)

Rip Hamilton
Against Spurs, 16.7 ppg on 39%. (Over the first three rounds he had averaged over 20ppg on nearly 50% shooting)


Here's an old post of mine about Bowen. It still applies:

It's about games like .. when Zach Randolph or Chris Bosh were going off on the Spurs this season, Bowen was switched onto them and rendered them useless (I don't think either one of them scored when he was on them). It's about going into the playoffs and being ready to guard anyone and everyone. From shutting down Shawn Marion and making him look like a 7th grader to chasing Rip through screens all day and then switching over to Chauncey in the 4th and getting a game sealing block. (Sorry, but it had to be mentioned).

There is absolutely nothing anyone can learn about Bruce Bowen by sitting and compiling stats. But if you watch this guy 82 games a year and see this ~6'6, under 200 pound guy doing whatever it takes and whatever you ask of him, night in and night out, you'll really appreciate him.

[Rick Von Braun]

Bowen has had a couple bad games (against Morrison and McGrady) and a couple times he ran up against players who couldn't miss (Michael Redd and most recently Kobe), but for the most part Bowen's defense has actually improved compared to last year. Last year he struggled a lot against the quicker and stronger players and had a poor defensive showing in the playoffs. This year he's done a good job in almost every situation.

The stats also back me up as far as Bowen's defense not falling off as some claim.

Per 100 possessions defensively, the Spurs give up 4.7 less points with Bowen on the court. Here is that stat over the last five seasons:

2006-07: -4.7
2005-06: +2.7
2004-05: -1.5
2003-04: -4.5
2002-03: -6.6

Before this season, you could definitely see a year-to-year decline in Bowen's D ... and the stats backed that up.

But this year, my eyes tell me he's doing a good job, the stats tell me he's doing a good job ... so there is no reason for me to believe that he has become a liability.

Point taken, so far this year his D has improved with respect to previous years.

It's actually the opposite - with as bad as this team is defensively, without Bowen on the court they are a complete disaster.

Bowen is the player that is keeping this team from becoming a horrible defensive squad.

I disagree that Bowen is the player keeping everyting together defensively. Our best defenders are Tim, Horry, Manu and Bowen in this order. The cornestone of our D has always been and will continue to be Tim Duncan.

Using the same data:
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
Duncan -6.4
Horry -6.4
Ginobili -5.6
Bowen -4.7
Parker -2.5

This is our best defensive lineup, and the only 5 players with positive contributions on D. Bowen is a contributing member, but not the stelar one "keeping this team from becoming a horrible defensive squad".

Yeah, I've always been of the opinion that the less Bowen handles the ball, the better. But year by year, Bowen has drastically improved his ballhandling and finishing skills. These days he can actually bring the ball up the court. When he first got to San Antonio, he couldn't dribble twice without turning it over.

The fact that he has improved from a horrendous start doesn't mean he has became any good for a starting SF in the NBA. I still cringe when he handles the ball. I am pretty sure that if you run a poll asking people who would you like to handle the ball, Bowen would still be at the bottom of the list, despite this aparent improvement. If you compare ball handle skills with other starting SF the situation is even worse.

The Spurs have been able to concentrate on playing team defense the last 4 or 5 seasons because Bowen has been able to take the other team's best perimeter player and defend them without having help sent his way. He's still doing a good job doing his part, but there is no team defense behind him.

It isn't either team defense or individual defense. You can do both ... and the Spurs have three rings to prove that.

You can do and would like to do everything. Yes, you would like 5 all defensive team players, and 5 all nba players, the whole enchilada. The point is that Bowen doesn't bring you much offensively, and doesn't contribute much rebouding, or assisting, or ball handling, so it is reasonable to analyze the situation of the le of this thread.

You are usually very good with stats, so I'm guessing you didn't consult the stats before you posted that.

1) His turnovers are down even though he is handling the ball more and playing more minutes.

Wrong, his TO per minute played on a basketball court have increased in the last 3 years. This is a fact. I got the data from nba.com.

2) He's done a good job in "developing the corner three as a weapon", especially considering he's shooting at a career-high clip. And that's including like an 0-for-12 streak after the switch back to the old ball.

Correct, and I am quite happy with this, as I pointed out in the previous post. This is a positive.

3) Bowen is shooting the three-pointer more than ever and shooting two-pointers less than ever. He's shooting .089 two-pointers per minute, which is nearly half of the rate of just a couple years ago. And this year for the first time, he's shooting more three-pointers than two-pointers.

Have you wondered why? Allow me to bring some perspective.

04-05 1.041 TO/48 10.80 FG/48 42.31% 3PT%/total
05-06 1.167 TO/48 9.34 FG/48 45.71% 3PT%/total
06-07 1.185 TO/48 8.81 FG/48 52.94% 3PT%/total

It is quite suggestive that the higher the TO rate, the smaller the number of field goals taken and the larger the proportion of 3PT with respect to the total. This seems to indicate that he may be attempting less 2PT because he loses the ball before he even attempts the shot, by either getting stripped and/or making the wrong pass in penetration. I see this clearly when I watch him play, and the data confirmed this.

4) His free-throw percentage has always sucked ... but it doesn't really effect much, seeing as he goes to the line only every other game.

Yep, but being a horrible FT shooter doesn't help his cause either.

5) His ballhandling nowadays is much, much better than just a couple years ago. Him being able to bring the ball up has made it impossible to have success against the Spurs' starting lineup using a fullcourt press.

He may have improved, but he is still pretty bad. I hope we agree on this.

You are preaching to the choir on that. I've always criticized Bowen for his lack of rebounding. But the Spurs used to have enough rebounders to overcome that. Now they don't. Is that Bowen's fault or the fault of the team for not putting any quality rebounders on the court?

This is not a good argument. The starting small forward should be a good rebounder, period. The fact that we have other sucky rebounding players, for whatever reason doesn't excuse Bowen to be a sucky rebounder. If there are changes in personnel, for whatever reason, you need to review the structure and balance of your team.

I guess what I tried to convey is that there is a fine trade-off between the clear offensive limitations that Bowen's bring to this team, and his contributions on D. I think we all agree here. Starting from this premise, I would like to limit Bruce role in offense as much as possible to maximize efficiency and energy, so he can concentrate on his main task, while perhaps asking him to put his mind in rebounding a little more.

The thread was worth discussing. Just to restate my position, the main obstacle I see to replacing Bowen from the starting lineup is that the offensive contributions of any of the guys that could potentially replace Bruce in the starting lineup do not compensate the lost in D at this time. However, it is always good to analyze and challenge the status quo.

[Kori Ellis]

04-05 1.041 TO/48 10.80 FG/48 42.31% 3PT%/total
05-06 1.167 TO/48 9.34 FG/48 45.71% 3PT%/total
06-07 1.185 TO/48 8.81 FG/48 52.94% 3PT%/total

It is quite suggestive that the higher the TO rate

You do realize that the difference in turnover rate that you are referencing = less than ten turnovers per SEASON.

In other words, nothing.

[Kori Ellis]

The difference between 04-05 and now is .144 turnovers per 48 or in other words .099 per 33 minutes (Bowen's average minutes). Multiple that x 82 games and you get 8 turnovers per season difference.

[Rick Von Braun]

You do realize that the difference in turnover rate that you are referencing = approximately one turnover per SEASON.

In other words, nothing.

It depends on minutes played.

Total turnovers per season:
04-05 57 TO 2627 min
05-06 67 TO 2755 min
06-07 32 TO 1296 min

The trend from 04-05 to 06-07 is not just 1 turnover per season.

[Kori Ellis]

It depends on minutes played.

Total turnovers per season:
04-05 57 TO 2627 min
05-06 67 TO 2755 min
06-07 32 TO 1296 min

The trend from 04-05 to 06-07 is not just 1 turnover per season.

It was a typo in my post. Re-read please.

[Kori Ellis]

This seems to indicate that he may be attempting less 2PT because he loses the ball before he even attempts the shot, by either getting stripped and/or making the wrong pass in penetration. I see this clearly when I watch him play, and the data confirmed this.

The data confirms that he commits one extra turnover per 10 games or so. I don't think it's a factor.

[timvp]

I disagree that Bowen is the player keeping everyting together defensively. Our best defenders are Tim, Horry, Manu and Bowen in this order. The cornestone of our D has always been and will continue to be Tim Duncan.

Using the same data:
Defense: Pts per 100 Poss.
Duncan -6.4
Horry -6.4
Ginobili -5.6
Bowen -4.7
Parker -2.5

This is our best defensive lineup, and the only 5 players with positive contributions on D. Bowen is a contributing member, but not the stelar one "keeping this team from becoming a horrible defensive squad".

So you are trying to say that Manu is a better defender than Bowen? That's laughable.

The reason that Bowen's +/- stats are skewed is because he's rarely in the game when the other team's best player is on the bench. Of course he's not going to appear to be as good of a defender as he really is when the other team is playing scrubs when Bowen is sitting out. That's logical and the reason why you can only compare Bowen's +/- to previous year's stats.

Manu and Horry play a lot versus the other team's bench. You can argue that Duncan is the best defender on the team, but to use +/- stats against Bowen when he sits when the other team's superstar sits is crazy.

Oh and Tim Duncan hasn't "always" been the cornerstone of the D. That used to be David Robinson's neighborhood and one could argue Rasho was the best bigman defender for a couple year stretch. Duncan was a horrible defender as a rookie, but has improved greatly since then.

The fact that he has improved from a horrendous start doesn't mean he has became any good for a starting SF in the NBA. I still cringe when he handles the ball. I am pretty sure that if you run a poll asking people who would you like to handle the ball, Bowen would still be at the bottom of the list, despite this aparent improvement. If you compare ball handle skills with other starting SF the situation is even worse.

Yeah, Bowen won't make anyone forget Curly Neal but he isn't horrible anymore. I'd say he's still below average, but he's at least an able ballhandler.

Look at Finley and E. Williams. Both of those players started as small forwards for years in the NBA and Bowen is now the best of the three in terms of handling the ball. By far.

You can do and would like to do everything. Yes, you would like 5 all defensive team players, and 5 all nba players, the whole enchilada. The point is that Bowen doesn't bring you much offensively, and doesn't contribute much rebouding, or assisting, or ball handling, so it is reasonable to analyze the situation of the le of this thread.

I still don't understand what this has to do with having to decide if you want to play team defense or individual defense.

Wrong, his TO per minute played on a basketball court have increased in the last 3 years. This is a fact. I got the data from nba.com.

I meant "down" as in league wide comparison. But even by your stats, he's averaging a whopping .018 turnovers per 48 minutes more per game.

Plus his turnovers are down compared to his first three years with the Spurs. You know, back when he never dribbled.

Have you wondered why? Allow me to bring some perspective.

04-05 1.041 TO/48 10.80 FG/48 42.31% 3PT%/total
05-06 1.167 TO/48 9.34 FG/48 45.71% 3PT%/total
06-07 1.185 TO/48 8.81 FG/48 52.94% 3PT%/total

It is quite suggestive that the higher the TO rate, the smaller the number of field goals taken and the larger the proportion of 3PT with respect to the total. This seems to indicate that he may be attempting less 2PT because he loses the ball before he even attempts the shot, by either getting stripped and/or making the wrong pass in penetration. I see this clearly when I watch him play, and the data confirmed this.

Whoa. I don't even know where to start.

First, let's start with some math. Bowen had 67 turnovers last year. If he turned the ball over last year at the rate he is this year, he would have had 68 turnovers. That is one turnover over the course of the season.

Even from two years ago, he would have turned the ball over 8 fewer times over the course of the season. That's not even .1 turnover per game.

So do you still want to hold true to your theory that the reason Bowen went from 4.2 two-pointers per game two years ago, to 3.5 two-pointers last year to 2.8 two-pointers this year is because he's turning the ball over instead? I hope not.

Even if you want to award him a missed two-pointer for each of his turnovers over his rate of two seasons ago, he'd only be averaging 3.0 two-pointers per game this year.

Your theory just doesn't come close to flying.

Yep, but being a horrible FT shooter doesn't help his cause either.

Last year he averaged 7.55 points per game. If he was a 75% free throw shooter, he would have averaged 7.69 points per game.

Again, I wish he shot free-throws better. But in the grand scheme of things, it's so minimal that it's hardly worth discussing.

This is not a good argument. The starting small forward should be a good rebounder, period. The fact that we have other sucky rebounding players, for whatever reason doesn't excuse Bowen to be a sucky rebounder. If there are changes in personnel, for whatever reason, you need to review the structure and balance of your team.

Which is why I was all for getting Reggie Evans or another player who could rebound. No use giving up on Bowen because the Spurs weren't smart enough to fill the hole in their roster.

That'd be like saying we should trade Manu because the bench sucks and we need a player who can play more minutes. The Spurs know Manu isn't a player who can handle playing many minutes ... that's why their two main bench players are backup shooting guards.

I guess what I tried to convey is that there is a fine trade-off between the clear offensive limitations that Bowen's bring to this team, and his contributions on D. I think we all agree here. Starting from this premise, I would like to limit Bruce role in offense as much as possible to maximize efficiency and energy, so he can concentrate on his main task, while perhaps asking him to put his mind in rebounding a little more.

I would agree that he should limit his offense if the stats showed that he was shooting more than usual. But the opposite is true.

As far as rebounding goes ... Bowen is never going to be a good rebounder. He's too skinny and doesn't jump high enough. He's also slow to the ball off the rim. But the Spurs knew that going into the season.

The thread was worth discussing. Just to restate my position, the main obstacle I see to replacing Bowen from the starting lineup is that the offensive contributions of any of the guys that could potentially replace Bruce in the starting lineup do not compensate the lost in D at this time. However, it is always good to analyze and challenge the status quo.

I agree with the premise that all the players should be held accountable. And if there was a player on this team that could help the Spurs win more than Bowen does as the starting small forward, I'd be the first one asking for a change.

However, one thing I disagree with is that an offensive player who doesn't play D could step in and play small forward for this team. For the Spurs to play Spurs Basketball, they need a perimeter stopper defensively. Sean Elliott was that in 1999 (along with Mario Elie). I don't see a San Antonio team who doesn't value defense being a championship caliber squad.

To me, the perfect Bowen replacement is a good defender, who can rebound and shoot the three. I wouldn't want a player who just scores to be the one who eventually takes over for Bowen.

[ShoogarBear]

I find it impossible to believe that there is any difference in 1.041 turnovers per 48 min versus 1.185 turnovers per 48 minutes that translates into anything real on a basketball court.

[timvp]

I find it impossible to believe that there is any difference in 1.041 turnovers per 48 min versus 1.185 turnovers per 48 minutes that translates into anything real on a basketball court.

Actually, it works out to 0.012195 more turnovers per game for Bowen. It's catastrophic

[MannyIsGod]

When the team plays poorly, Bowen's poor offense shines through much clearer. But thats about it. I don't think he's as good a shut down defender as say 2 years ago, but he's still the best out there, IMO.

In any case, there are far more pressing holes for the Spurs to fill.