People have made good points that these numbers don't take into account some young players that teams will want to resign. I probably should have done more annotation about which of those players will not be under contract.
Still, looking at Orlando, even if they decide to resign Darko and Jameer, and extend Howard, they'll probably have about $20 million to play with, assuming they don't decide to pick up somebody before then.
It's not that they wouldn't offer contracts to certain players, just that they're hesitant to offer too much money for too long. Mohammad went to Detriot because the Spurs wouldn't give him a fifth year.
I bet if a guy like Gerald Wallace became available the Spurs would be willing to give him a long-term deal, and they were willing to at least inquire about Corey Maggette. So I don't think it's a "hard and fast" rule, but I think the Spurs FO is cost-concious about longer term deals...
08? that
09 is when tims contract goes of the books then 2010, tp will get another contract
they still got ariza to resign....
seriously arent they lookin for a new built arena?
Don't beat yourself up, you did a good synopsis of the 2008 outlook for teams. And you're right....Orlando looks dangerous for the future.
If Spurs spend the MLE next summer on a p ayer with a multi year contract they won't have more than $7M in capspace for the 08 summer.
Don't think this is right...can anyone get the actuals?
Top of my head...
2010 for Tim
2011 for Manu
2012 for Tony
however I tried to watch at it, I can't see the 2008 plan.
how should this work?
a 2010 plan makes sense. but if the so called 2008 plan materializes (signing a FA to a max contract), the 2010 plan would no longer work as well.
if the Spurs want in fact to work on this 2008 thing, it means that they can't sign any player to a longer than 1 years contract (or trade only for players with expiring contracts this summer), because their room is very limited with Tim, Tony and Manu on the books. a team still needs 13 players. adding another star, but filling the roster with only min. players won't work IMO.
what about all the 2007 draft picks? are Spurs further more stockpiling Euro picks? (currently no other team in the NBA has so many unsigned picks like the Spurs own. will they increase the number to 9?)
what about Scola?
ok, they could sign him to the mentioned 3 years/10 million contract and still have enough cap space 2008, but it won't work, if they spend the whole MLE this summer on a helpfull player. maybe Gerald Wallace. many doubt that he would sign for MLE, but what if he did? he won't get a max offer. what if he signed the 5 years/30 million contract? Spurs would be crazy to refuse this, if it was possible.
overall I hope that there isn't a 2008 plan. because if it didn't work out as planned (by signing a premium player, something that usually failed when Spurs tried to do so), Spurs would have hurt the other options. (adding the right role players around the 3).
Spurs should try to get a good supporting cast for the next 3 years. (by using the MLE for FAs, trading for players etc.)
2010, when Tim and Manu's contract expire, then there will be significant cap space and then the Spurs will know, if Tim wants to add some more years, if he has something left and if he takes a paycut, to make a big signing possible. same with Manu.
2010 there will be some premium players on the market!!!!!!
not an aging KG. (not that I didn't take him, if possible)
still young franchise players like Lebron, Wade (if he opts out), Bosh (if he opts out), Amare and some more who's names we don't know yet (because they are to young or just in the draft).
2010 the Spurs could offer: a max contract, an all star player in his prime in Tony, two more stars, who might be aging but still good in Manu (33) and Tim (34) AND (most important) a good supporting cast (maybe players in the Scola, G. Wallace category). that might bring a new franchise player to SA!
Chicago's numbers don't include:
-Ben Gordon (eligible for $6.4 qualifying)
-Ty Thomas ($3.7 team option)
-Luol Deng ($4.5 qualifying)
-Nocioi (contract expires this year)
So, yeah, they're more likely to be in the $50 range.
Chauncey and Delfino are the only Pistons who will be in their primes who will not be under contract. Wallace, Hamilton, Prince, and Nazr (who presumably won't be there) are included in their figures.
Depends on the cap figure, doesn't it? As I said above, I'd peg it somewhere at $60mil. If it's that much, and they spend the MLE, they should have about $10 million.
Yup we could have had Melo. Today, we would only have one of them...Melo or Tayshaun.
1) $60M is a lot. When people project the future Salary cap they use 3 scenarios :
pesimistic : 1% raise/year => salary cap in 08 $54M
realistic : 3% raise/ year => salary cap in 08 $56M
optimistic 5% raise/year => salary cap in 08 $58M
2) Spurs payroll against the cap will $46M with only Parker/Manu/Duncan under cotnract. You shouldn't forget that you should fill the roster with minimum salary ($442K in 08) to reach 12 players when you calculate the capspace.
If the Spurs' entire MLE is spent on a multi-year contract for one guy...that guy better damn well be enough of a contributor to negate the Spurs' need for Kevin Garnett. As much as I would like the Spurs to get immediate contributors with the MLE this Summer, it's very likely that they will split the MLE between two players like this past year. Assuming one of the two players is a veteran providing short-term help, I could see a very likely scenario where a one-year deal is offered with an option for the second year.
But whoever you decided to get rid of would have certainly garnered more than a mid-first round pick right? Point is, the Darko decisions (both in drafting and in trading) weren't the best courses of action for the franchise and hurt their potential to be long-term contenders....
One other thing about the 2008 Master Plan.
It only works if Bruce Bowen retires after next year's team option.
If Bruce decides he wants to continue playing, I'm 95% sure the Spurs offer him a contract, after what he's done to help them financially.
But how big of a contract? I'm thinking as a 38yr old he'll probably only ask for the vet min, which is not a big contract at all. It also depends on his importance to the team at that point...if the Spurs have found someone to take the starting 3 spot (lets hope to almighty God the Spurs aren't relying on a 38yr old defensive specialist in '08), then he might retire on his own or be willing to accept a very modest contract.
I'm not so sure that Bruce won't opt out THIS summer and then re-structure (again) for a 2 year deal for lower money per year ... so yes, that will eat a little of the 2008 money.
Another few questions ... do you guys think that Horry will retire this summer? Do you think it's possible that Finley or Oberto don't pick up their options? Do you think they'll be able to move Beno this summer?
They have to reckon the cap for 07-08 this summer, then reckon the cap again for 08-09, right? It's the 08-09 figure that matters here, unless that's what you're showing above. I don't think that's what you have. So it should be (figure * 3%) * 3%. I may be wrong.
I think they'll move Beno this summer. I also expect Horry to retire. Finley and Oberto will not leave money on the table. Oh, and I expect the Spurs to dump Butler this summer, too, but they may not.
I also kind of think Bowen will opt out this summer and take something like that 2 year contract for fewer dollars. I may have visions, but I do think the wheels of a great apparatus are turning on this one. I think the Spurs have very specific ideas of what they plan on doing with the 2008 summer. Whether Duncan is in on it, expecting to negotiate down his contract, I don't know.
I think Finley will re-sign. He seems to have really settled in with the Spurs ethos and likes Tim a lot, likes his role here. I think he also knows his best chance at a le is here.
I think Beno and Oberto are probably both gone, the former more than the latter.
A question - if Chicago is already dangling Nocioni as trade bait, could the Spurs get him here next year, since he's up for a new contract? He would be a SWEET long 3 for the Spurs and he's excellent both defensively and offensively, AND he and Manu are already tight as Argentine teammates.
The salary cap is $53.135M this year so $54.729M in 07-08 and $56.371M in 08-09.
Tough to say on Horry, though I think he ends up hanging them up.
If Finley plays well down the stretch and feels like he can get one last deal (possibly w/ hometown Chi Bulls) I think he'll do it. But my gut and his current play says he'll stick with the money and the guaranteed job.
I think Oberto will opt out if it's clear that he's not going to be in the rotation for the 07-08 season.
The Spurs shouldn't move Beno until they have a backup plan for his successor and a short-term plan for an immediate contributor... (a.k.a. Drafting PG in second round and signing Chucky Atkins/Brevin Knight)
The salary cap is $53.135M this year so $54.729M in 07-08 and $56.371M in 08-09.
Using your conservative "pessimistic" figure of 1%. Why do you keep bending around this? It is far more likely to be 3% and just as likely to be 5%. Using your realistic figure, the cap number comes very close to $60M.
At the time, Detroit needed a big man that could play defense and score. Darko was that man. Darko was considered a top 3 pick that year, along with Lebron and Melo. Detroit already had Prince, so they felt Melo wasn't a necessity. Here is a little fact of knowledge about Melo...he canceled the Pistons draft workout. Why draft a guy who didn't want to work out for you? Joe D. didn't know that he would be getting Rasheed later in the year for table scraps.
Anyways, we got another first round pick out of it all, so we will see how it goes. With the Magic tanking like they are, it likely we could very well have a top 15 pick in a stockpiled draft. We also have our first rounder, so we can always try and trade up.
AFAIK, Bruce can't opt out this summer it's up to Spurs to keep him or waive him.
Another think is that Horry last year isn't fully guaranteed (like Danny Ferry) : I really think that Spurs won't keep him to save money and will sign Bonner as replacement.
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