Spurs: Rookies could be Toros teammates

[A.H 21-50]

Actually, if you compare him against the players most of us wanted in the draft (McGuire, Terry, Byars, Nichols, etc) he's not doing too badly in comparison stats.

I'm agree

the 2nd round's rookies who made a good or decent preseason actually are C and PF like Gray , Davidson and maybe Lasme , Fazekas( except Taurean Green) : The Spurs didn't really need someone inside during the draft

At the wings in comparison to the others rookies like byars .... it's not too bad to have williams despite he struggles a lot and he can play better.

Maybe Williams was the best man available for their need and in their mind , we'll see that

[Holt's Cat]

Williams and Mahinmi are part of the reason the Spurs acquired the Toros. That is, to give raw talent that won't see much PT with the team currently an opportunity to play compe ively and also to learn the Spurs' offense and defense (presumably).

The other reason the Spurs acquired the Toros, of course, is to evaluate players they didn't draft on a team they control.

I don't see much of a reason to jettison Williams just yet, unless someone they want to pick up and feel really good about becomes available. The Spurs' 2 and 3 spots are deep (Manu, Bowen, Finley, Barry, & Udoka). If one of those goes down, you still have 4 other guys who are each capable of playing 30 minutes a night.

[objective]

DJ Strawberry is getting a lot of hype/praise on Suns boards and is getting a good amount of preseason minutes.

[SenorSpur]

Williams and Mahinmi are part of the reason the Spurs acquired the Toros. That is, to give raw talent that won't see much PT with the team currently an opportunity to play compe ively and also to learn the Spurs' offense and defense (presumably).

The other reason the Spurs acquired the Toros, of course, is to evaluate players they didn't draft on a team they control.

I don't see much of a reason to jettison Williams just yet, unless someone they want to pick up and feel really good about becomes available. The Spurs' 2 and 3 spots are deep (Manu, Bowen, Finley, Barry, & Udoka). If one of those goes down, you still have 4 other guys who are each capable of playing 30 minutes a night.

It's true they are deep, but they are OLD. Barry and Finley are not long-term solutions at that spot. Udoka is a wonderful stop-gap. Spurs may decide to add another swingman from the available FA pool this summer. That would help.

In the meantime, Williams, should be part of the longer-term youth movement. No need to give up on him yet.

[timvp]

If Spurs waive Williams at the end of the training camp, it will be a huge failure of Spurs FO.

A huge failure?

Most second round draft picks never make it -- even early second rounders. This FO has already hit on enough late draft picks to fill their quota for the next 20 years. Missing on a second round pick is far from a failure.

Just look at the 2006 draft. James White was drafted higher than Williams and didn't make it out of training camp. PJ Tucker was drafted right around Williams and was waived early in the season.

Drafting is an inexact science. Sometimes you get it right, sometimes you don't. There's no such thing as a "huge failure" when it comes to a second round pick not panning out.

First, it will be a huge scouting mistake. Spurs have chosen Williams with the 33rd pick that is to say over tons of quite good players. 4 months later, they won't keep him while he is cheap and Spurs have to chose between him and nothing.

Again, the second round is a crap shoot. Even with the best scouting money has to buy, teams are still going to make mistakes. There is such a big jump from any level of basketball to the NBA that it's really tough to figure out how a player will transition.

A top ten pick being a bust could be considered a scouting mistake. A second round pick being a bust is the expected outcome. Not everyone the Spurs pick can turn out to be Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili. 90% of second round draft picks would be lucky to turn out to be as good as Beno Udrih.

Second, it will too be a failure of the way Spurs handle the draft. Williams is a long term prospect (college sop re with a jumpshot to build). He has underachieved this summer but Spurs must too be patient with that kind of raw players. If Spurs wanted to judge the drafted player after 4 months, they should have drafted a college senior or drafted a foreigner and let him overseas for years.

The failure would be keeping a player just to save face. A lot of franchises do that and it puts them back years because they just don't want to admit a mistake.

Even the Spurs have made this mistake. Think back to the training camp in 2000. The final spot on the roster came down to Chris Carrawell, Derrick Dial or Raja Bell. Carrawell and Dial were both second round draft picks. Carrawell was a player who was expected to be picked in the middle of the first round. The only reason he slipped was because he didn't work out for teams who drafted after 19. The Spurs picked him in the second round and were very happy ... even though they never worked him out. Derrick Dial was a second round pick that played in Italy the year before and put up very good numbers overseas. Raja Bell was just some guy that Pop liked who had no ties to the Spurs and his resume was unimpressive.

Back then, the Brunos of the forum were all ing when reports came out that Carrawell was struggling and the Spurs were thinking of cutting him. Carrawell even had guaranteed money in his first and second year of his contract. Luckily, the Spurs swallowed their pride and made the right decision in cutting him. Then it came down to Dial or Bell. RC Buford had scouted Dial in Europe and loved what he had seen. Pop went on record as saying Bell was the most impressive two-guard in camp. Buford overruled Pop and decided to keep Dial instead of Bell because Dial had went to Europe when the Spurs asked him to and because the Spurs had "too much invested" in Dial.

Looking back on that, it was an obvious mistake. You don't keep a player just because you want to save face. You keep a player if they show the ability to become an NBA player. It shouldn't matter where they were drafted, if they were drafted or what contract the player has.

You say that four months isn't enough time to scout a player ... I call BS on that. The Spurs have watched this guy work out every day for the last four months. That's plenty of time to tell if he's going to ever amount to anything. I don't care if he's 16 or 26, you can tell if someone has the ability to become an NBA player.

Personally, I don't really see that in Williams. He's not a fluid athlete at all. Just watching him move on the court he doesn't move as well as you'd want a small forward to move. I don't see much natural basketball IQ in his game. He also doesn't have the outward drive to compete or that obvious belief in his own abilities. Add all that up and from what I've seen of him, I'd say he's a huge longshot to ever step foot on an NBA court and play halfway productively. He has somewhat of a chance because he tries hard, he's in a good position to succeed and he's big and long enough. But those traits alone don't make him an NBA prospect.

If Spurs waived Williams, it will bite them in the ass way more than the Scola trade.

That's quite a comical take. If the Spurs waive Williams, I doubt he ever makes it back to the NBA level. He'll have a career playing in Europe ... if he can straighten out his shot.

For the move to bit the Spurs in the azz, you'd have to assume that Williams would go on to prove himself to be a viable NBA player. That's a lot to assume when he has shown so little to date.

What would be more damaging is if the Spurs held on to a player to save face just to appease their scouting department. If you keep Williams this year, that means you pretty much have to make a long-term commitment to him to see if he can ever pan out. Keeping Williams if the Spurs see little upside to him for the next two season in the NBDL and then a third season trying to get his feet wet in the NBA would be much more of a "huge failure" than admitting their error and cutting ties.

I really do hope Williams turns out to be a good player for the Spurs. The Spurs could really use a long small forward who can rebound. That said, you have to realize that most second round draft picks don't pan out and that it's better to admit a mistake than to try to fit a square player into a round roster spot.

[Bruno]

A huge failure?

Most second round draft picks never make it -- even early second rounders. This FO has already hit on enough late draft picks to fill their quota for the next 20 years. Missing on a second round pick is far from a failure.

Yes, a huge failure.

I agree that missing a second round pick isn't really a failure.
What is a failure is to waive a early second round pick 4 months after the draft just to save $850K (with the luxury tax).
Williams wasn't playing in Uzbekistan, he was playing in a big college program and was known as a nba prospect for more than one year. He has been heavily scouted by nba teams.
If a nba staff goes in 4 months from "this player is a good enough prospect to be a 33rd pick" to "this player isn't worth spending $850K on him" while the player was heavily scouted, I consider that as a huge failure.
You can do a mistake on a second round draft pick but doing a mistake that big is a huge failure.

Just look at the 2006 draft. James White was drafted higher than Williams and didn't make it out of training camp. PJ Tucker was drafted right around Williams and was waived early in the season.

You can't compare to Williams case, James White was fighting with Rawle Marshall for a spot. PJ Tucker was waived at the end of the season and the rumored reason of it is .... please don't laugh .... that he has had a fight with Rasho.

The failure would be keeping a player just to save face. A lot of franchises do that and it puts them back years because they just don't want to admit a mistake.

Even the Spurs have made this mistake. Think back to the training camp in 2000. The final spot on the roster came down to Chris Carrawell, Derrick Dial or Raja Bell. Carrawell and Dial were both second round draft picks. Carrawell was a player who was expected to be picked in the middle of the first round. The only reason he slipped was because he didn't work out for teams who drafted after 19. The Spurs picked him in the second round and were very happy ... even though they never worked him out. Derrick Dial was a second round pick that played in Italy the year before and put up very good numbers overseas. Raja Bell was just some guy that Pop liked who had no ties to the Spurs and his resume was unimpressive.

Back then, the Brunos of the forum were all ing when reports came out that Carrawell was struggling and the Spurs were thinking of cutting him. Carrawell even had guaranteed money in his first and second year of his contract. Luckily, the Spurs swallowed their pride and made the right decision in cutting him. Then it came down to Dial or Bell. RC Buford had scouted Dial in Europe and loved what he had seen. Pop went on record as saying Bell was the most impressive two-guard in camp. Buford overruled Pop and decided to keep Dial instead of Bell because Dial had went to Europe when the Spurs asked him to and because the Spurs had "too much invested" in Dial.

Who is the Raja Bell this year ?
In 2000, it was Bell vs Dial.
In 2007, it's Williams vs $850K.

While Bell has ,by far, a better nba career than Dial, I don't see how $850K will be able to outplay Williams. Keeping Dial was a mistake, keeping Williams can't be a mistake for the moment.
If Spurs waive Williams to sign another prospect, I won't consider the Williams drafting as a huge failure. If Spurs waive Williams and let the 15th spot open, I will consider the Williams drafting as a huge failure.

You say that four months isn't enough time to scout a player ... I call BS on that. The Spurs have watched this guy work out every day for the last four months. That's plenty of time to tell if he's going to ever amount to anything. I don't care if he's 16 or 26, you can tell if someone has the ability to become an NBA player.

They have scouted him for more than one year playing NCAA games and the result for positive.
If after watching him practicing four months, they think that there isn't a single chance that he become a useful nba player one day, then their scouting was crap.
Williams is a very, very, very low risk investment. The only way you waive him is that the reward is even lower. I have a hard time to see how the reward could be lower than the risk, even if he was really bad during these four months (and it's not sure that he was that bad).

That's quite a comical take.

Yes, the goal of the last sentence was to be funny.
I have a good feeling about Williams and I like some of his characteristics. I think that he could maybe become a good nba player but don't take too seriously sentences like "Williams is a stud" or "Williams will be a great nba player".

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

"Ian is a lucky young man in that the Spurs are willing to put him down there and let him develop...He needs to play 30 to 35 minutes a night. He'll get that in the D-League."

[ChumpDumper]

I just found Justin Bowen's agency page (he should consider upgrading; he is their best client). Doesn't look like he has signed with anyone, so hopefully he will be back with the Toros. If he continued from where he left off at the end of last season, Bowen will be very useful as a barometer for Williams ability and progress. I would have no problem waiving Williams and picking up Justin if the difference between the two was apparent around the end of the calendar year.

[picnroll]

The Butler signng turned out to be a bigger failure of the Spurs' front office than the Willaims signing if he's released. Dumping Butler and his contracts cost the Spurs sending Scola to a rival and likeley le contender helping them fill a postion of need.

[Spurs Dynasty 21]

I knew Williams signed that tender non-guaranteed contract. Spurs wanted him to go to Europe, he refused, signed the automatic tender and here we are.

timvp impresses himself sometimes.

I like Williams, hope he stays with the Spurs

[timvp]

Yes, a huge failure.

No, not a huge failure. I'm not sure why you are so anti-Spurs FO this summer. The Spurs win a championship and you want to label a second round pick not being good a "huge failure" when about 90% of second round picks are out of the league in five years?

Amazing.

What is a failure is to waive a early second round pick 4 months after the draft just to save $850K (with the luxury tax).

First of all, they'd waive him because he's not good. The money is just icing on the top. I'm one of Holt Cat's biggest critics when it comes to being cheap but this situation is different. This is talent evaluation -- not cheapness.

Second of all, admitting a second round pick is a bust soon after making the pick is actually a good thing. A failure would be to hang on to the pick and put resources and man hours into a project that obviously was flawed in the beginning. Admitting a draft mistake is a trait that many professional sports teams never master. I admire those that do.

Williams wasn't playing in Uzbekistan, he was playing in a big college program and was known as a nba prospect for more than one year. He has been heavily scouted by nba teams.
If a nba staff goes in 4 months from "this player is a good enough prospect to be a 33rd pick" to "this player isn't worth spending $850K on him" while the player was heavily scouted, I consider that as a huge failure.
You can do a mistake on a second round draft pick but doing a mistake that big is a huge failure.

Usually you have very good takes but on this issue you are way, way off base. This is the most ridiculous thing you have posted in your SpursTalk career.

Have you not noticed the hundred and hundreds of players throughout the years that have played on major college teams and never made it in the NBA? Players have been picked in the top ten or the top five after spending four years at a major college program and have still been an NBA bust. It happens all the time.

I don't care how much you scout a player, you don't know how they are going to transfer their abilities to the professional level. It is an inexact science, to say the least. NBA players need not only the physical abilities but also countless mental traits that don't surface until after they are put in the situation. There is simply no way to know with certainty whether a player has the wherewithal to succeed in the NBA until they begin their NBA career.

To say differently is not only wrong but ignores obvious examples year after year.

You can't compare to Williams case, James White was fighting with Rawle Marshall for a spot. PJ Tucker was waived at the end of the season

All three of those players are out of the NBA now. Shouldn't that shine a light and tell you that perhaps not all early second round picks are potential studs?

Who is the Raja Bell this year ?
In 2000, it was Bell vs Dial.
In 2007, it's Williams vs $850K.

While Bell has ,by far, a better nba career than Dial, I don't see how $850K will be able to outplay Williams. Keeping Dial was a mistake, keeping Williams can't be a mistake for the moment.
If Spurs waive Williams to sign another prospect, I won't consider the Williams drafting as a huge failure. If Spurs waive Williams and let the 15th spot open, I will consider the Williams drafting as a huge failure.

Keeping Williams or any player who obviously doesn't have an NBA career is a mistake. It doesn't matter if you have the roster room or the money to accommodate the player. If a pick is a bust and you know it's a bust the best thing to do is just cut ties.

Say the Spurs keep Williams even if they know he won't amount to anything, even though they have room for him, keeping him on board would waste coaching hours on both the NBA and D-League levels. You send him down to the D-Leauge, the coaches down there feel the need to play him and try to develop him. That would make it harder to locate and develop talent with future NBA capabilities.

They have scouted him for more than one year playing NCAA games and the result for positive.
If after watching him practicing four months, they think that there isn't a single chance that he become a useful nba player one day, then their scouting was crap.

Again, hundreds upon hundreds of players have been heavily scouted for four years and have ended up busts. To bash the Spurs' scouting for taking a flier on a kid and missing is incomprehensible. You are acting like the Spurs wasted a lottery pick. This was a second round pick that inherently will likely end up being worthless.

Williams is a very, very, very low risk investment. The only way you waive him is that the reward is even lower. I have a hard time to see how the reward could be lower than the risk, even if he was really bad during these four months (and it's not sure that he was that bad).

You have to think of things outside of the monetary risk. In this cir stance, money is not even a main concern. If a player doesn't have an NBA future, they don't have an NBA future. Wasting time on a player with no NBA future is a lot more damaging than cutting ties and moving on.

Yes, the goal of the last sentence was to be funny.
I have a good feeling about Williams and I like some of his characteristics. I think that he could maybe become a good nba player but don't take too seriously sentences like "Williams is a stud" or "Williams will be a great nba player".

First of all, the Spurs can't keep a guy because Bruno has a good feeling about the player. I watched him a bit in college and all the summer league games and I think he's a scrub. However, timvp and Bruno haven't seen Williams as much as the Spurs have. The Spurs have watched the kid practice nearly every day for four months. If they think he's not worth their time, I applaud the team for swallowing their pride and admitting an error. The easy way out would be to keep him around no matter what just to appease the franchise's sense of pride and superiority. Even the Spurs FO can be wrong and if they admit to being wrong, it'd be erroneous to label it a "huge failure". Instead, it'd show how advanced they are in terms of doing what is best for the franchise, even if it means admitting an error.

Oh and don't try to back out of the Williams bandwagon now. You've been driving that bus. Now you are trying to hop out of the drivers seat? Now that is something that could be considered a "huge failure".

Bottomline is this situation isn't as cut and dry or as dire as you make it out to be. If the Spurs missed on a second round pick, they might as well admit it now and move on. And no, it's not a "huge failure" to make a mistake with a second round pick. More than half the league does it every year and will continue to do it every year.

The Spurs FO has unearthed enough late round gems in the last eight or so years that you'd think a Spurs fan would give the franchise a pass for a mistake. The chances of drafting two Hall of Famers like the Spurs might have done with a late first rounder and a late second rounder within the span of a couple years is like .000000001%. Yet a Spurs fan is still going to throw a fit because the Spurs made a mistake with a second round pick along the way?

That's pretty damn classic ... and sad at the same time.

[objective]

I would have rather the Spurs sign Sanikidze and send him to Austin with Mahinmi. Sanikidze has legit potential to be an NBA quality player someday, especially if he could get over repeated nagging injuries with quality work with a franchise like the Spurs/Toros staffs regarding his body.

So in this instance, if Williams refused to go to Europe, then certainly you could see it as that potentially costing the Spurs Sanikidze, further delaying his development. And considering how long it took Sanikidze to publicly agree to sign with a new team, it's not too outrageous to speculate that the wait was because of how long it took for the Williams issue to get settled, though there was some lag time.

[Solid D]

Very good debate, timvp and bruno, but you know...we Spurs fans haven't had much chance to discuss draft picks higher than the 28th player available.

The exceptions since Duncan was drafted number 1 have been:
John Salmons (26th) in 2002 and Felipe Lopez (24th) in 1998
...and they were both traded for combo guards with some experience (Claxton and Daniels).

[Holt's Cat]

So gifting Scola to the Rockets is awesome but drafting Williams is a "huge failure"? That's why I try to avoid the internets.

[ShoogarBear]

One valid criticism, which has been well-hashed in other threads, is that whatever decent draft picks the Spurs have made since Duncan have all been international players. And it's not like they haven't had the occasional opportunity to score good US players (Josh Howard). And even in the second-round international picks have tended to pan out better on a relative scale than their US ones (not that any of them outside of Manu have made it).

So are the Spurs just not investing enough effort in scouting NCAA players?

[Holt's Cat]

The Spurs have made their fair share of poor personnel decisions over the years.

Now they are passing up quality international talent for $.

[Solid D]

The Spurs have made their fair share of poor personnel decisions over the years.

Now they are passing up quality international talent for $.

Now? Trading the Barbosa 1st round slot in '03 to PHX was for $ purposes.

[T Park]

Now they are passing up quality international talent for $.

Who did they pass up on for money in the draft?

[Holt's Cat]

Now? Trading the Barbosa 1st round slot in '03 to PHX was for $ purposes.

That was to pursue talent.

[Holt's Cat]

Who did they pass up on for money in the draft?

It was a long walk to that short bus, apparently.

[ChumpDumper]

I don't see Viktor on Köln's roster.

If he's in no hurry to join a team, let's go ahead and use him to force the D-League roster issues with the NBA and NBPA. Have him try to sign a contract with the D-League and see what happens next. If the league balks at any time, the CBA teams start their training camps on November 5....

[picnroll]

Spurs draft picks of late have been just fine:

Barbosa
Lee
Collins

Except for Beno and it remains to be be seen on Mahinmi I don't see what everyone is complaining about.

[Solid D]

That was to pursue talent.

Which one was the talent, Turkoglu or Mercer?

[timvp]

Which one was the talent, Turkoglu or Mercer?

Your thoughtlessness makes Rasho blue.

[Solid D]

Yes, a blue lips post! I can die happy, now!!!