Some Slovenian site says that Katrina will reach NO at 12.00 euro time, so that is in about 1.5h .
LJ, they probably want it to go further east. The further east it goes now the better for New Orleans because it will go farther away.
It's an angles game. Right now it's moving North, but a move to the east will keep the strongest winds away from NO and lessen the flooding. But if it keeps moving north the eye will pass right over the east side of NO and that is the worst case scenario we keep talking about.
Over 10 inches of rain in extreme southern louisiana so far.
Approaching 6 inches in and around NO.
The CNN weather guy just blew up at the anchorwoman.
"Let me talk!!!" and throws down his papers.
Let me post the webcam link again:
http://www.nola.com/beadcam/index.ssf?video
It is rainning reeeeally hard now, a water curtain descending on New Orleans.
The last VORTEX message from the RECON flight put the winds at about 140-145mph which is still catagory 4. And from what I can tell, that eye is closing off. I don't know if it can strengthen before landfall, but I think its done getting weaker.
Well 145 still sucks. If it's not going to get weaker, I guess the only hope is that it somehow goes a little further east. 145 and hitting just East of NO seems to be still horrific.
The newest report that they are reading on the NO station says it's 150 mph and it's 915 milibars.
They said that the longitude was exactly the same as 2 hours ago. So it's still heading directly into the East side of NO.
That eye is already closed off, and its still over water. This storm isn't going to weaken anymore, and I woudln't be suprised a small rise in preassure.Some fluctuations in intensity are possible right up until landfall
occurs. However...it appears that Katrina will make landfall as a
category 4 hurricane later this morning. The cloud pattern in
satellite imagery has eroded on the west side due to dry air
entrainment...and the eyewall has opened up to the south and
southwest in radar imagery. However...the water remains quite warm
underneath the center...and convection can easily redevelop and the
eyewall close off again before landfall occurs. Some disruption of
the circulation will occur once the center moves over southeastern
Louisiana. However...the forecast track keeps the eye close enough
to warm water near the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. The
upper-level outflow pattern remains quite impressive and even
contains a rare 200 mb indraft anticyclone to the east near Tampa
Bay. The combination of the outflow regime and the close proximity
to warm water may be enough to keep Katrina a major hurricane when
it reaches the Louisiana-Mississippi border area this afternoon.
Just because Katrina is no longer a catgeory 5 hurricane does not
mean that extensive damage and storm surge flooding will not occur.
This is still an extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
hurricane!
What sucks, is that the planes are having problems and can't measure things well.
One thing to possibly be worried about is that the preassure of 915 usually suports winds over 155mph, or category 5 status. But because the eye wall had been open, it will take a while for those winds to increase.
I was watching Fox News and they were saying that everything is looking better. The eye isn't as strong, it's moving faster and the pressure isn't as bad. They say that the models that show destruction don't look as likely right now.
Still scary, but good news I guess.
Well if it's going to hang around 145-150, that can't be a good thing. Category 5 is 156, so people shouldn't celebrate that it's staying a Category 4 now. Not much difference in the big picture.This storm isn't going to weaken anymore
They just said the exact opposite on CNN. I guess we can only wait, reports are contradicting.
I'm going to only listen to Manny - not CNN or Fox
I wonder how many times Manny has watched Twister.
I'm watching the New Orleans webcam, the street lights just went down, but the webcam is still working (huh? It may be working on an alternate generator).
Last edited by Manu'sMagicalLeftHand; 08-29-2005 at 04:30 AM.
Not good:
New Orleans Lakefront Airport
Last Update on Aug 29, 3:53 am CDT
Fog and Windy
78°F
(26°C) Humidity: 93 %
Wind Speed: NE 54 G 85 MPH
Barometer: 29.12" (986.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 76°F (24°C)
Heat Index: 81°F (27°C)
Visibility: 0.50 mi
NO has gotten between 6-8 inches of rain so far, and climbing quickly.
I love/hate twister with a passion.
The storm isn't going to get weaker. The radar presentation is improving by the minute.
Manny, what radar do you view?
Is there a local website which has a closer view of the NO city radar?
I'm viewing noaa.gov, but that radar is pretty wide.
Here's the official report from 4am .. the next one will come at 6am.
000
WTNT32 KNHC 290850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE GULF COAST FROM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS
EVENING.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LA UDE 28.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH... AND THIS
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATRINA WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA COAST JUST EAST OF GRAND
ISLE THIS MORNING... AND REACH THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
DETERIORATE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS
A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.
KATRINA REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. RECENTLY...A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 53 MPH WITH GUST TO 91 MPH WAS REPORTED AT GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
...AND A WIND GUST TO 71 MPH WAS REPORTED IN NEW ORLEANS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 915 MB...27.02 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
NOAA BUOY 42040 LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED WAVES HEIGHTS OF AT LEAST 46
FEET.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE TORNADO THREAT AHEAD OF KATRINA CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA... SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...28.8 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 915 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 AM CDT AND 8 AM CDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
I'm about to head off to work...looks like we are going to be seeing the hit come pretty soon...before 8am I would expect. The eye looks to be getting ragged on the radar...is that just because of the radar...or is that how it really is shaping up?
Manny said that it was ragged (increasing the pressure and decreasing the winds) but it has closed now and will likely stay with about this same winds (145-150 mph).The eye looks to be getting ragged on the radar...is that just because of the radar...or is that how it really is shaping up?
The next official report will come out at 6am. I guess we'll know if it's holding steady then.
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