The DeJuan Blair Conundrum

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Interesting discussion.

My opinion is you have to continue to start Blair as long as the ship stays righted.

1) I an a big believer in if it ain't broke don't effing fix it.

2) I said this when we acquired Diaw.and lots of people went ape saying how now we can start him over Blair: what the does that do to team Morale if Pop removes a three year spur, who has started every game this season, hasn't been anything but positive at ude, knows the system, and we are winning games hand over fist while he starts? And to replace him with a player with no familiarity with the system, a newcomer, who is on a two month contract most likely?
and he just happens to be Parkers best friend?

I think it would cause stress in a team that (post Jefferson) seems as tight nit a group as you can find in the league.

My second point ties into the first.
If we were routinely getting punished by the Memphis, the NO, the jazz, and dropping games due to getting in early holes with Blair starting, then something is broken and we should try to fix it.

But so far so good, so I don't believe you with that,.especially with only ten or so games to go.


3) the lakers games will have to be done kind of measuring stick for our current formula.

in fact, Pop could have rested Blair yesterday specially with the lakers games in mind. Maybe he wants to see what Blair, fresh, starting against the lakers can do.

4) I agree with obstructed view about early energy, and with timvp's running back change of pace analogy. there has to be some kind of intangible positive to Blair starting that is beyond numbers and had positively contributed to the teams success this season.

[pgardn]

I think this has been implied but not stated directly:

The possibility that Blair may fall and crush an opponent forcing the opposition to use an early 20 second time out.


Actually, I like the junk baskets he can provide early in a game and get us off to a decent start offensively if we are missing. His D is unbelievably bad and he is not holding onto rebounds as well as he has in the past. Having a semi-beast rounds out a first unit that is not overly physical however.

Tough call.

Oh... and I like to hear him called The Dancing Bear, it makes me happy.

[Paranoid Pop]

Interesting discussion.

My opinion is you have to continue to start Blair as long as the ship stays righted.

1) I an a big believer in if it ain't broke don't effing fix it.

2) I said this when we acquired Diaw.and lots of people went ape saying how now we can start him over Blair: what the does that do to team Morale if Pop removes a three year spur, who has started every game this season, hasn't been anything but positive at ude, knows the system, and we are winning games hand over fist while he starts? And to replace him with a player with no familiarity with the system, a newcomer, who is on a two month contract most likely?
and he just happens to be Parkers best friend?

I think it would cause stress in a team that (post Jefferson) seems as tight nit a group as you can find in the league.

My second point ties into the first.
If we were routinely getting punished by the Memphis, the NO, the jazz, and dropping games due to getting in early holes with Blair starting, then something is broken and we should try to fix it.

But so far so good, so I don't believe you with that,.especially with only ten or so games to go.


3) the lakers games will have to be done kind of measuring stick for our current formula.

in fact, Pop could have rested Blair yesterday specially with the lakers games in mind. Maybe he wants to see what Blair, fresh, starting against the lakers can do.

4) I agree with obstructed view about early energy, and with timvp's running back change of pace analogy. there has to be some kind of intangible positive to Blair starting that is beyond numbers and had positively contributed to the teams success this season.

We were winning with Jefferson, why trade him by your logic? Blair's defense ain't broke, it doesn't exists, he makes Ibaka look like the second coming of Nowitzki.

And lol at using the jazz, the zbo-less grizzs and the hornets as proof that Blair must start.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Because it was clearly obvious all season that Jefferson was causing problems with his minutes, and we received a proven player to replace him, as well a already had a young player that was showing mad potential,.and he could grow more without Jefferson.

The very fact that we are having this discussion proves that it is not plain as day that DeJuan is causing problems with his play

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I think its a disservice to Blair's contributions to compare his production to Jefferson's

[angelbelow]

He said best player, not best defender. There were plenty of players who were "better" than Bowen by any measurement who wouldn't have made the Spurs a better team.

Best player is usually the way to go but not always.

Yeah, but the best player on the team, not league wide. For the Spurs, Bowen was the better fit because he never overextended. But he was also the best player on our team at the SF position because of his defensive strengths.

The biggest downside to replacing Diaw with Blair right now is time. With so few games left, its hard to know if Diaw replacing Blair will work the way we envision (improved defense, offense, overall IQ on the floor etc). I think its worth the risk to try it though.. Diaw is clearly the better player and that theoretically makes him a better fit.

In a preseason interview, Blair said that Pop told him to be more mature and professional. Hopefully Blair took that advice to heart. However, I think fans are too hard on him for acting out last season. From Blair's perspective; he must know that he has limited time to earn a big contract and that he might have a short career. Don't get me wrong, being immature and letting your body go is absolutely the wrong way to handle that situation. But not every 20 year old is going to be mature enough to have that foresight. I think hes going to get benched in the playoffs - my hope is that Blair is more mature about it this time (probably the better career move for him anyway.)

[acoelho1]

Who cares if Blair sulks? The west is loaded with talented bigs and Blair is not a starting PF or center for that matter. I wouldn't mind him so much if he was coming off the bench and getting very limited minutes. Splitter and Diaw should get the bulk of minutes with Bonner behind them. I really hope Blair is traded this off season. He has become the new RJ.

[Solid D]

There have been 53 games that Blair has started this season. The Spurs had the lead in 32 (60%) when the initial subs ute came in for Blair. The other 40% of the times, the Spurs trailed in 19 (36%) and were tied in 2 (4%).

I post these statistics because some may believe that Blair starting the game gives them a good first burst before subbing him out. In those first stints, the Spurs are +57 which is an average of +1.075. Not much of an advantage.

[Solid D]

For those of you who want to know where these stats came from, they were tabulated from the Play-By-Play of each game record. Here is the detail based on Game #, the Opponent, Score when 1st subbed-out, Ultimate outcome of the game, +/- when 1st subbed-out and running sub-totals every 10 games based on who had the lead at the time of Blair subs ution:

Gm Opp. Score W-L +/- Running Sub-Total
1. Mem 23-24 W (-1)
2. LAC 27-17 W (+10)
3. Hou 10-21 L (-11)
4. Uta 15-8 W (+7)
5. Min 17-19 L (-2)
6. GS 13-12 W (+1)
7. Dal 23-8 W (+15)
8. Den 22-16 W (+6)
9. OKC 11-13 L (-2)
10. Mil 25-18 L (+7) (Sub-Total 6-4, +30)
11. Hou 8-11 W (-3)
12. Por 19-26 W (-7)
13. Phx 30-26 W (+4)
14. Mia 35-26 L (+9)
15. Orl 9-11 W (-2)
16. Sac 7-19 L (-12)
17. Hou 11-18 L (-7)
18. NOH 15-22 W (-7)
19. ATL 24-18 W (+6)
20. Min 16-13 L (+3) (Sub-Total 10-10, +14)
21. Dal 12-10 L (+2)
22. Mem 14-11 W (+3)
23. Hou 9-24 W (-15)
24. NOH 12-10 W (+2)
25. OKC 17-13 W (+4)
26. Mem 18-10 W (+8)
27. Phila 14-15 W (-1)
28. NJ 13-9 W (+4)
29. Det 12-12 W (0)
30. Tor 21-12 W (+9) (Sub-Total 17-12-1, +30)
31. LAC 8-15 W (-7)
32. Utah 10-14 W (-4)
33. Por 20-27 L (-7)
34. Den 13-6 W (+7)
35. Chi 16-13 L (+3)
36. Cha 21-16 W (+5)
37. Den 0-2 L (-2)
38. NYK 20-15 W (+5)
39. LAC 15-15 L (0)
40. Was 16-18 W (-2) (Sub-Total 21-17-2, +30)
41. Orl 4-6 W (-2)
42. OKC 16-12 W (+4)
43. Dal 12-20 L (-8)
44. Min 16-11 W (+5)
45. Dal 12-8 W (+4)
46. NOH 18-17 W (+1)
47. Phila 16-12 W (+4)
48. PHX 25-23 W (+2)
49. SAC 16-11 W (+5)
50. Ind 7-6 W (+1) (Sub-Total 29-19-2, +46)
51. Cle 14-13 W (+1)
52. Bos 21-18 W (+3)
53. NOH 23-16 W (+7) (Total 32-19-2, +57)

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

Blair doesn't rebound as well anymore.
Blair doesn't play good defense.
What exactly does Blair do that makes him special?

What does the team need? I would say defense. And if Diaw helps the defense, AND is a far superior passer and team player, then I don't see what the problem is. In fact, I think this is one of the easiest decisions to make.

If Blair was scoring in the post and still rebounding well, then that would be a more intriguing dilemma...but unfortunately he's not and so it's time to try other options.

In fact, one thing that the starting unit lacks that the second unit excels at is passing. By putting Diaw in the starting lineup, in theory, the first team should improve. I'm not so sure that Blair is actually beating up and wearing down the other team's front line.

Blair occasionally has a brilliant, near hallucinogenic game once or twice a year, but I'm not sure it's worth starting him in the hopes that he breaks out.

Anyway, it would be great for him to do well, and I think most fans appreciate him, but it's a convoluted, overthought argument to keep him starting.

[SenorSpur]

Mr. Randdddddddy Watsonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

That boy can sing!

[Spursfanfromafar]

For those of you who want to know where these stats came from, they were tabulated from the Play-By-Play of each game record. Here is the detail based on Game #, the Opponent, Score when 1st subbed-out, Ultimate outcome of the game, +/- when 1st subbed-out and running sub-totals every 10 games based on who had the lead at the time of Blair subs ution:

Awesome work. Thanks!

[therealtruth]

Most teams start their best two-way players. It's really that simple. The only time you might make an exception is if you have unbalanced roster. Blair's not even in the top 8 or 9 players. There's no reason for him to be starting.

[ElNono]

Any added thoughts after this Utah game? I think Blair can still be more effective than Diaw on certain matchups. When he's allowed to be aggressive, he can be much more assertive.

[Manu-of-steel]

Any added thoughts after this Utah game? I think Blair can still be more effective than Diaw on certain matchups. When he's allowed to be aggressive, he can be much more assertive.

Diaw is a poorer rebounder compared to Blair.

[Seventyniner]

Any added thoughts after this Utah game? I think Blair can still be more effective than Diaw on certain matchups. When he's allowed to be aggressive, he can be much more assertive.

I'd still start Diaw, because he's a better defender and his passing makes up for his relative lack of offense.

However, it's been pretty well established in this thread that starting Diaw in place of Blair would likely relegate Blair to #5 big status, and that's a double-edged sword.

[Solid D]

53. NOH 23-16 W (+7) (Total 32-19-2, +57)

Updated
54. UTA 19-21 L (-2) (Total 32-20-2, +55)

There have been 54 games that Blair has started this season. The Spurs had the lead in 32 (59.2%) when the initial subs ute came in for Blair. The other 39% of the times, the Spurs trailed in 20 (37%) and were tied in 2 (3.8%).

I post these statistics because some may believe that Blair starting the game gives them a good first burst before subbing him out. In those first stints, the Spurs are +55 which is an average of +1.018. Not much of an advantage.

Corrected

[DMC]

What a lot of people are forgetting about last season is that almost every >.500 team we faced early on had their stars out due to injuries. Of course Bonner could go off on struggling teams. Once these starters got back into the swing of it, the Spurs began to struggle. Duncan injured his ankle and we had a tough stretch.

It's counter-intuitive to think Blair should start at center. The only reason I could defend it would be to allow him to absorb fouls early on ty FT shooting bigs, but that's about it.

He makes too many boneheaded moves. Sure he's a good cleanup guy, but to successfully incorporate him into the post season offense, he has to be more than that. He cannot shoot, he's got decent moves under the rim but not as good as Tiago. He cannot step out and shoot the three like Bonner, and his defense is sub-standard. I wouldn't look too hard at Bonner's shooting percentage as an indicator that Blair should be on the floor with him. Those two on the floor together seems to be the bane of the Spurs' existence. So what Bonner shoots a higher percentage. Bonner's 3pt shooting is really only meaningful in the 1st and 2nd quarters. We'll take what we can get, but he folds at the slightest hint of pressure.

No, we won't be playing like a bunch of wussies, we will be turning the ball over and watching Blair slam the ball off the backboard from 10' out.

Blair should play with Manu, and if Manu comes off the bench, so should Blair. Manu can get Blair open looks. That's a good pairing.

[Spurs da champs]

The Spurs looked so much better with Diaw starting.

Should Pop bench Blair and he sulks then screw him. The team comes first.

Agreed.
I'd say us winning so much with Blair as starter is just coincidence, Pop made the right move if he does stick with Diaw.

[TJastal]

There have been 53 games that Blair has started this season. The Spurs had the lead in 32 (60%) when the initial subs ute came in for Blair. The other 40% of the times, the Spurs trailed in 19 (36%) and were tied in 2 (4%).

I post these statistics because some may believe that Blair starting the game gives them a good first burst before subbing him out. In those first stints, the Spurs are +57 which is an average of +1.075. Not much of an advantage.

But he gives the team.. um..err.. something!

[TheSkeptic]

Most teams start their best two-way players. It's really that simple. The only time you might make an exception is if you have unbalanced roster. Blair's not even in the top 8 or 9 players. There's no reason for him to be starting.

Exactly. Blair would be a luxury to have as an energy big off the bench but if he goes back to drowning his sorrows in food there are better players who should be taking his minutes anyway. The Spurs don't lose out by playing someone better ahead of him.

[therealtruth]

Why can't Pop try starting Tiago at PF. He's even tried Diaw now. Diaw comes off the bench as center with Bonner.

[Capt Bringdown]

Why put too fine a point on it? Blair simply sucks. His presence on the court makes it easier for our opponents to beat us. Blair is a horrible miscalculation on Pop's part, similar to his bush-league plan to replace Horry with Bonner.

[pad300]

Updated
54. UTA 19-21 L (-2) (Total 32-20-2, +55)

Corrected

If you're trying to do serious stats analysis, I would strongly recommended simply dropping the Utah and Portland games from the analysis (that Pop rested the big 3 for)... It's debatable that they can be considered a part of the same population.

Which I think would make your summary
32-18-2, +64

[timvp]

Any added thoughts after this Utah game? I think Blair can still be more effective than Diaw on certain matchups. When he's allowed to be aggressive, he can be much more assertive.

I don't think Blair did anything to change things but it's noteworthy that Diaw didn't exactly take advantage of his opportunity to start two games.

Back in 2005, Nazr Mohammed was acquired late in the season and didn't start his first game until April 10th. However, when Mohammed was given a chance, he played so well that it was impossible for Pop to ignore. Diaw got his first start on April 8th but the similarities end there.

Nazr Mohammed's first two games as a starter
29 points
29 rebounds
6 blocks
1 assist
0 turnovers
8 fouls

Boris Diaw's first two games as a starter
14 points
4 rebounds
1 block
2 assists
3 turnovers
10 fouls



It would have been great if Diaw took this opportunity and proved to be a big upgrade from Blair ... but he didn't even come close to doing that.