The DeJuan Blair Conundrum

[timvp]

The Spurs have had a great amount of success with DeJuan Blair as their starting center. However, despite that success, many Spurs fans believe that the team would be much better with Blair coming off the bench. The statistics agree: Judging by plus/minus numbers, Blair is far and away the worst player on the team.

Let's look at both sides of this debate:

Five Reasons Why DeJuan Blair Shouldn't Start

1. DeJuan Blair is a Defensive Liability
Typically, Blair is asked to defend the opposing power forward. Against perimeter-oriented players, he is uncomfortable. Blair isn't good at contesting jumpers or keeping players in front of him. Versus post players, Blair's lack of height is oftentimes exposed. In terms of help defense and transition, he's well below average. Statistically, the Spurs allow 98.2 points per 48 minutes Blair is on the court. With Blair on the bench, the Spurs only allow 93.8 points per 48 minutes.

2. DeJuan Blair Doesn't Spread the Court
On offense, virtually all the best performers on the team require an open lane in order to play at their optimal level. When Blair is on the court, there's simply not much space to operate in the paint. Even though he's a good passer and capable in pick-and-rolls, the lack of spacing on the court when Blair plays is painfully obvious. The Spurs score 97.6 points per 48 minute when Blair is on the court. When he's off the court, the scoring improves dramatically to 104.6 points per 48 minutes.

3. DeJuan Blair Doesn't Rebound Well Anymore
In college and in his rookie season, Blair was a fantastic rebounder on both ends of the court. His rebounding numbers dropped a bit in his second season. This year, Blair has regressed to the point that he's no longer an asset on the glass. From his rookie season, his offensive rebounding has fallen 13.8% and his defensive rebounding has fallen 28.6%.

4. DeJuan Blair is a Poor Match for Potential Playoff Opponents
In the Western Conference, the Thunder, Lakers, Grizzlies, Clippers and Mavericks will likely be San Antonio's biggest compe ion. The power forward on those teams (Serge Ibaka, Pau Gasol, Zach Randolph, Blake Griffin and Dirk Nowitzki) are all extremely talented and all poor matchups for Blair.

5. DeJuan Blair is Better Suited for a Bench Role
In theory, Blair would be a much easier player to manage when he's coming off the bench. The coaches could use him in situations where his weaknesses can be camouflaged and his strengths can be magnified. Malik Rose, for example, had a very successful run with the Spurs even though he too was undersized.



Five Reasons Why DeJuan Blair Should Start

1. DeJuan Blair Wins
At every level, Blair has proven to be a winner as a starter. In high school, his team went 103-16 in his four years. At Pitt, Blair's teams went 58-15. He has started 141 games for the Spurs in his three seasons in San Antonio. In those games, the Spurs are 105-36 -- a .745 winning percentage that translates to a 61-win regular season. In the other 93 games during that time frame, the Spurs are 52-41 -- a .559 winning percentage that translates to a 46-win season.

2. DeJuan Blair Makes Life Easier for Tim Duncan
After the 2008-09 season, Duncan told the front office that he wanted the team to acquire an "ass-kicking" bigman to help lessen the physical toll on his body. The Spurs responded by bringing in Blair. And the numbers point to Blair helping out Duncan. This season, Duncan averages 22.1 points and 3.9 assists per 40 minutes that he's on the court with Blair, while shooting 48% from the floor. Per 40 minutes he plays without Blair, Duncan's numbers drop to 19.7 points and 2.8 assists on 46% shooting. Last season there were similar splits: 19.3 points and 4.4 assists with Blair, 18.7 points and 3.3 assists without Blair.

3. DeJuan Blair Makes Teams Adjust
If you remove Blair from this team, the Spurs would be extremely perimeter-oriented as a team. Duncan these days is much more likely to be found operating in pick-and-rolls or on the high post than he is to be found posting up. Splitter is almost exclusively a pick-and-roll bigman. Blair, on the other hand, does his work right around the rim. If teams ignore him, Blair can make the opponents pay. Hypothetically, the adjustment from defending Blair to defending the perimeter-oriented bench unit could cause the opposition some problems. And while that is a difficult thing to prove statistically, consider this: over the last two seasons, Matt Bonner shoots 47.3% (159-for-336) on three-pointers in games in which Blair starts. When Blair comes off the bench, Bonner's three-point percentage drops to 35.2% (44-for-125). Fluke? Perhaps ... but maybe not.

4. DeJuan Blair Might Otherwise Sulk
Blair is loved by his teammates and the coaches like the effort he gives on the court. However, last season Blair sulked after being removed from the starting lineup. Not only did his energy level dip, he began gaining weight. By the end of the season, he had become a non-factor. If he's benched again this year, the coaches would have to be worried about Blair sulking again. Since this team still doesn't have great bigman depth, losing Blair entirely would be a negative. Plus, as long as he's starting, Blair is happy. He has never complained about a lack of minutes as a starter, even though he routinely plays the fewest minutes of all the players in the starting lineup.

5. DeJuan Blair's Poor Play is Mitigated
Even when DeJuan Blair plays poorly, there's only so much damage he can do when the minutes he gets are at the start of each half. He rarely closes quarters, much less games. When it comes money time, Blair as a starter helps make sure he's far away from the court. In the past, the Spurs won a championship with Nazr Mohammed, who similarly posted poor plus/minus numbers.





Conclusion

So, should DeJuan Blair continue to start? My first reaction is to think that the Spurs would be much better with Boris Diaw or Tiago Splitter starting. But that gargantuan difference in winning percentage and the rather large drop in shooting accuracy from Bonner makes me think twice. Honestly, I'd probably still bench Blair but I can't say I'm 100% sure that it would make the Spurs better.

[Sa_Spursfan20]

Nice read Timvp. You bring up a lot of valid points.

4. DeJuan Blair Might Otherwise Sulk
Blair is loved by his teammates and the coaches like the effort he gives on the court. However, last season Blair sulked after being removed from the starting lineup. Not only did his energy level dip, he began gaining weight. By the end of the season, he had become a non-factor. If he's benched again this year, the coaches would have to be worried about Blair sulking again. Since this team still doesn't have great bigman depth, losing Blair entirely would be a negative. Plus, as long as he's starting, Blair is happy. He has never complained about a lack of minutes as a starter, even though he routinely plays the fewest minutes of all the players in the starting lineup.

Honestly, that is my biggest concern if Pop decides to bench Blair. An unhappy Blair is essentially a dead roster spot for the Spurs. Right now I have the mindset of "If it ain't broke don't fix it". Blair brings some nice numbers and play most of the time, and he usually doesn't get a terribly high amount of minutes. If he isn't playing well in a game, just send him to the bench and let Diaw or Tiago (God I wish) work. I'd rather have a 5 man lineup with Blair starting than a 4 man lineup with Blair having a pity party on the bench...

[Obstructed_View]

If memory serves, Blair has had quite a bit of success against the Lakers and the Thunder.

[2centsworth]

He chose the triple cheeseburger over his
team.

[dylankerouac]

Timvp, you have convinced me that Blair should keep his place in the starting lineup. At least until this season is over. If the Spurs win a championship with him as a starter I would probably be against offloading him in the off-season too.

A B2B would be nice, but one thing at a time.

[Splits]

Blair sulking should not be a factor in deciding whether or not he starts. For christ's sake he's paid very well to play a game on the most professional organization in the world. Fill your role, bust your ass, work hard, and STFU like the rest of the roster.

[TheSkeptic]

If memory serves, Blair has had quite a bit of success against the Lakers and the Thunder.

The Thunder yes, and possibly offensively against the Lakers. I don't think his defense was very good against LAL if memory serves...

Even then I just don't see what he has to offer that Diaw couldn't do better.

[loveforthegame]

The Spurs looked so much better with Diaw starting.

Should Pop bench Blair and he sulks then screw him. The team comes first.

[TwelveGs210]

Only reason I want him to continue to get his minutes is to keep awareness of him from other GM's, and not to mention sulking his way into becoming less tradeable. Is he under contract next year?

[Obstructed_View]

Yeah, but the quote said that the SPURS have had great success with Blair as the starting center. Last time I checked, the Spurs haven't won a championship with Blair as the starting center. Perhaps the author of the thread considers that great success equals winning tons of regular games, which isn't the case either, because the majority of those games weren't won due to Blair's performance

Blair got pulled from the starting lineup and wasn't in the rotation for the playoffs last year. You might extend your logic to explain how losing to the Grizzlies was on him.

[Whisky Dog]

I think you can keep Blair as the starter if TD and the team feel in a rhythm with Blair starting. If he starts really screwing things up in the playoffs you can cut him from the rotation, but I doubt that he'd be that bad when he's basically playing 10 or so min a night in the postseason.

[SenorSpur]

If memory serves, Blair has had quite a bit of success against the Lakers and the Thunder.

^This.

Ever since his rookie year, when he put up an astonishing 28 pts & 22 rebs, Blair has had surprising success against OKC, on a fairly consistent basis.

As for whether or not he should continue to start, I've thought a lot about this too. Blair seems to know his role, as a starter. He tries to bring good energy early and get the team off with some early, easy baskets. Unless he's gets into early foul trouble, this is what he does.

His weaknesses have been mitigated by the addition of Diaw and the increased playing time of Splitter. If Blair gets a bad matchup in the playoffs, I would expect his minutes to decrease even more.

Personally, I believe it would be risky for Pop to "upset the apple cart" now, by removing him as a starter. And as others have stated, I would be concerned about losing him altogether, if that would occur.

[Obstructed_View]

^This.

Ever since his rookie year, when he put up an astonishing 28 pts & 22 rebs, Blair has had surprising success against OKC, on a fairly consistent basis.

As for whether or not he should continue to start, I've thought a lot about this too. Blair seems to know his role, as a starter. He tries to bring good energy early and get the team off with some early, easy baskets. Unless he's gets into early foul trouble, this is what he does.

His weaknesses have been mitigated by the addition of Diaw and the increased playing time of Splitter. Personally, I believe it would be risky for Pop to upset the apple cart now.

Early energy is very underrated by those that throw advanced stats out there to justify their dislike for him.

[Paranoid Pop]

^This.

Ever since his rookie year, when he put up an astonishing 28 pts & 22 rebs, Blair has had surprising success against OKC, on a fairly consistent basis.

On offense yes but he didn't contest a single Ibaka jumper in the last game .

As for whether or not he should continue to start, I've thought a lot about this too. Blair seems to know his role, as a starter. He tries to bring good energy early and get the team off with some early, easy baskets. Unless he's gets into early foul trouble, this is what he does.

His weaknesses have been mitigated by the addition of Diaw and the increased playing time of Splitter. Personally, I believe it would be risky for Pop to upset the apple cart now.

It comes down to a simple question : is the upgrade provided by Diaw worth the risk of having the second coming of the Mavs version of Lamar Odom in the locker room?

I say yes.

[Darkwaters]

Is he under contract next year?

Yep, but the contract is still dirt cheap and only partially guaranteed.

[TJastal]

"Don't rock the apple cart".. no we're just giving it fancy rims and a new paint job. Oh, and a turbo booster.

[2centsworth]

During the win streak Blair is avg 3.6 board

Leonard is avg 6

Ginobilli avg 4.3

[Spurminator]

We've altered rotations during the Playoffs with some success in the past. Give it two games in and make the change then if needed.

We tried this change last year and the team never looked the same afterward. I can't pin that completely on Blair being out of the starting lineup, nor can I say for sure that it wouldn't be different this year with the different personnel we have, but it's a risk I'm not really ready to see the Spurs take.

[TheSkeptic]

We've altered rotations during the Playoffs with some success in the past. Give it two games in and make the change then if needed.

We tried this change last year and the team never looked the same afterward. I can't pin that completely on Blair being out of the starting lineup, nor can I say for sure that it wouldn't be different this year with the different personnel we have, but it's a risk I'm not really ready to see the Spurs take.

Replacing Blair with Dice was the problem. Not necessarily the move of benching Blair.

Diaw at this point is a better version of Blair who's also taller. Pulling him is the right thing to do so that we don't end up needing the bench to save us in the playoffs.

[TJastal]

Apple cart w/ Dejuan Blair starting:



Apple cart w/ Boris Diaw starting:

[Ginobleed20]

I'm all for Blair basically starting each half and only getting more than his six minutes if he earns them - I see that as the best way to keep him motivated.

Also, Plus-Minus stats are especially unfriendly to blair who almost exclusively plays against the other team's best five.

Would I mind starting Diaw and losing Blair completely? Well, yes. He provides an dimension (space-clogging) that our roster simply cant replicate. Unless we replace him in the starting lineup with splitter (UNLIKELY), lets just keep him in there and realize that games aren't won or lost in the first six minutes

[angelbelow]

The bottom line for me:

-If the Spurs were a lottery level/ bottom feeding playoff team; then I would start Blair and continue to give him minutes. While its true he doesn't have ACLs and probably wont have a long and iron man-esque career, the man still has potential and plenty of room to grow. Therefore, if the Spurs were a bad team, I'd give him the opportunity to room.

-If our current state as contenders, I would bench Blair and use him as the 5th option. Under no cir stance should Blair play more than 12 minutes on a championship contending team. However, I still like what he does at the beginning of games so starting him for 6 minutes. From there, you can decide whether Blair would continue to be effect and play him for another 6 minutes at the beginning of the 3rd or just keep him on the bench for the rest of the game.

[Bruno]

And while that is a difficult thing to prove statistically, consider this: over the last two seasons, Matt Bonner shoots 47.3% (159-for-336) on three-pointers in games in which Blair starts. When Blair comes off the bench, Bonner's three-point percentage drops to 35.2% (44-for-125). Fluke? Perhaps ... but maybe not.

There is a way more logical explanation of these numbers.
When Blair doesn't start, he plays way more minutes alongside Bonner. These stats could be explained by the fact that Bonner struggles to play alongside Blair. It seems to be a more convincing explanation that teams struggling to adjust at Bonner monster offensive game.

Not only did his energy level dip, he began gaining weight.

I think you got it the wrong way. Blair got benched because he was fat.

In this article, they said that Blair got fat was called out by Pop and lost 20lbs. I highly doubt all of that happened in the month and half between his benching and the end of the season.

[timvp]

The Spurs are as good as they are due to their bench. San Antonio's formula for success has been to have the starters hold it close and then for the bench to come in and blow it open.

With that in mind, it comes down to this:

Does DeJuan Blair starting have anything to do with the bench's success?

It sounds impossible at first ... but maybe there's something to it. When Blair is in, the Spurs pound it inside more than any other time in the game. They also run fewer pick-and-rolls when Blair is in the game. Once Blair is removed, the Spurs become a totally different team.

Does that change in iden y have anything to do with the bench doing so well? It makes some sense because the type of defense needed to stop the Spurs when Blair is in the game is a totally different type of defense needed to stop the Spurs when Blair checks out.

To compare it to football: Blair would be the power running back who wears down the defense, while the bench is the scatback that appears extra fast in comparison and is better able to take advantage of a worn down defense. Even if the scatback's stats are much better than those of the power RB, a team wouldn't necessarily become better if they just went with the scatback full-time. In fact, they'd probably be worse.

Before I wrote out my thoughts and read these replies, I was pretty convinced that benching Blair was the right move ... but now I'm not sure. Maybe, just maybe, there's a reason why the Spurs play like a 1st seed with Blair starting and a lottery team when Blair doesn't start. Maybe it's just something as simple as early energy, like OV said.

Unless the coaching staff is 100% sure Blair starting has nothing to do with the bench's success, it'd be a risky move to take him out of the starting lineup. And since Blair can only do so much damage in his ~12 minutes as a starter, it might be safer to to keep him in the opening five.





I'm still not sure, though.

[Bruno]

And Boris should start instead of Blair just because he is a better player. I don't really think it is more complicate than that.

Blair should go in the doghouse. He is Spurs fifth best bigman. The only way he should get minutes in the playoffs is if Bonner failed again to deliver under the pressure. Blair should then be traded for whatever Spurs can get this summer.