-Welp, here we are. One win away.
1. It's not the world's greatest situation because winning another road game in Miami might be the most difficult thing the Spurs have ever tried to do -- but I can't complain at all. Before the series, if you tell me the Spurs would take a 3-2 lead into Miami, I'd be elated. (Obviously, since Heat in 5, etc, etc.)
I agree. Called spurs in 7, BUT...... I would welcome a spurs win and 5th championship tonight.
-This underdog role is so different emotionally than the previous four championships (
). At no point in the past did I ever feel like the Spurs were anything but the favorites in the 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007 Finals. This series, however, I've never thought the percentages made the Spurs the favorites -- and I still don't heading into Game 6.
-The basic math is simple: If the Heat have a 70% chance of winning tonight (Vegas thinks their chances are better than that) and an 80% chance of winning Game 7 (that's probably an understatement), that gives Miami a 56% chance to win the championship. Even with this slightly homer view (IMO, at least), the Spurs are still sitting at 44%. That's a whole lot better than the 30% I gave them when the series started ....... but it's still a loooooooooooong way away from gassing up the riverboats.
-I really think tonight is the game the Spurs have to win if they're going to come out on top. A road team hasn't won a Game 7 in the Finals in 35 years (the same holds true for baseball, FWIW). I don't think that's a fluke. Winning a road Game 7 is extremely difficult. The emotion and the energy is just too much for the road team to overcome. One example is Game 6 against the Thunder last year -- which was basically OKC's Game 7. That game was damn near impossible for the Spurs to win, especially when you factor in the refs getting swept away in the emotion. Another example is when the Spurs won Game 7 back in 2005 against the Pistons. Detroit played better for a majority of that game ... but even that historically hardnosed, mentally tough team cracked as the AT&T Center erupted down the stretch.
-So yeah, Pop has to pull out all the stops tonight. Minute limits be damned. Pop can't factor in that there is another game in two days.
-All I want tonight is for the Spurs to keep it close and give themselves a chance. If they are within striking distance down the stretch, that's all I can ask for at this point. Keep it close and fight for it.
-I expect some pretty obvious adjustments from the Heat. First of all, Miller will be replaced in the starting lineup. I could see Miami going with Ray Allen, Shane Battier or even Norris Cole (if they think Cole is a Ginobili stopper). Most likely Allen ... with Battier being the other possibility. They won't switch screens as much -- if at all. They will also be driving to the hoop as much as humanly possible.
-Could Miami go back to a big lineup? I guess it's possible. Starting Haslem next to Bosh would be somewhat surprising. Does Pop respond by taking Ginobili out of the starting lineup? I hope not. That worked too well last game. Leonard can guard Haslem to start the halves and then Pop can just mix in bigger lineups off the bench.
-I'm excited/scared/nervous right now. I can only imagine what the players are feeling.
-The big difference in Miami will be the Heat's role players playing much better. Outside of Allen, they all pretty much sucked in San Antonio. The Spurs have to hope that not all of them go off in these upcoming games (or game).
-As far as the Spurs are concerned, it's down to execution. Limit turnovers, crash the glass and execute the game plan. That's what this series has boiled down to.
-prayingdog.jpg, vomit.gif, dannyferrydivingontheground.jpg, one.png
-It's going to take the best performance of the season to get this done. I believe they have it in 'em.
1.
Believe. 
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