Trading Rasho versus Nazr

[travis2]

I guess that is why he couldn't regain his starting position in the playoffs even though he's been year two years and Nazr was acquired very late in the season. I trust that Pop knew what he was doing and knew who the better player was.

And I guess you also trust Pop not to screw around too much with lineups leading into the playoffs, right?

And I guess you also trust Pop to read the opposition and look at possible matchups, right?

Just checking...

[TexasAggie2005]

trading Nazr vs. Rasho?


so trade a center that can play vs. a waste of space?

You're an idiot. And a tool. Please stop posting.

To everyone who keeps talking about Oberto being so great, yeah he played pretty well in the Olympics. I'd just rather see what he looks like in the NBA before planning on him becoming our starting center. I also maintain that if he were this incredible talent, he'd already be in the NBA. His buyout was very reasonable (as far as I know, teams looked at him last year) and he could've even come over before he signed his latest contract, if he were THAT good.

[Merlin]

And I guess you also trust Pop not to screw around too much with lineups leading into the playoffs, right?

And I guess you also trust Pop to read the opposition and look at possible matchups, right?

Just checking...

Better player plays. Newsflash. Matchups - I guess there was a problem with matchups during the whole playoffs. Just checking...

[TexasAggie2005]

Better player plays. Newsflash. Matchups - I guess there was a problem with matchups during the whole playoffs. Just checking...

Better player doesn't necessarily play. You don't want to mess with team chemistry at that point. Pop also doesn't like changing things that are working (i.e. bringing Manu off the bench in the Seattle series, even though it made very little sense to do so). Granted, if it were Timmy coming back, you'd mess with chemistry. But this doesn't show anything other than that Rasho isn't leaps and bounds better than Nazr. No one ever said he was, I think they're fairly comparable players.

As far as matchup problems go, there were issues the entire playoffs. With the possible exception of Seattle, every team we played used an athletic, under-sized center. If we face someone like Yao, Shaq, Dampier, etc. this year you'll want the extra size and better defense that Rasho brings.

[MaNuMaNiAc]

You're an idiot. And a tool. Please stop posting.

To everyone who keeps talking about Oberto being so great, yeah he played pretty well in the Olympics. I'd just rather see what he looks like in the NBA before planning on him becoming our starting center. I also maintain that if he were this incredible talent, he'd already be in the NBA. His buyout was very reasonable (as far as I know, teams looked at him last year) and he could've even come over before he signed his latest contract, if he were THAT good.

ahem... last I checked, Manu wasn't drafted by the NBA until he was like 26, and look how he turned out. Now, I'm not saying he's the next Manu, not by a long shot, but I do believe that just because other teams overlooked Oberto doesn't mean he just won't be able to cut it in the NBA. I think he'll get his chance, and some of you might end up pleasently surprised.

[TexasAggie2005]

ahem... last I checked, Manu wasn't drafted by the NBA until he was like 26, and look how he turned out. Now, I'm not saying he's the next Manu, not by a long shot, but I do believe that just because other teams overlooked Oberto doesn't mean he just won't be able to cut it in the NBA. I think he'll get his chance, and some of you might end up pleasently surprised.

Ok, this isn't that hard. One more time. I'm NOT saying he won't turn out well. I'm saying it's stupid to assume he'll be able to start in a couple years. He MIGHT turn out well, but it's not worth mortgaging the future of the franchise on that chance. Until we know he can cut it, let's stop saying it's not an issue possibly losing both Rasho and Nazr. And again, why didn't anyone bring him over last year?

[spurschick]

ahem... last I checked, Manu wasn't drafted by the NBA until he was like 26, and look how he turned out.

Actually, he was drafted in 1999 and a month away from turning 20.

[travis2]

Better player plays. Newsflash. Matchups - I guess there was a problem with matchups during the whole playoffs. Just checking...

Yep. Sure were. All playoffs. That, and coming off that ankle injury right at the end of the season. But thanks for checking. Glad you learned something.

[BigDiggyD]

I have gone back and forth with this issue in my own head trying to decide which of the two I would keep if I were a team faced with the same cir stances.



From an emotional gut decision I would go with Rasho because



·He is under contract for 3-4 more years (player option) for what amounts to not a lot for a center these days and Nazr could break the bank (I would love to have a deal already in place to extend Nazr before we ever pulled the trigger on a Rasho trade but that would be wishful thinking)

·His legitimate mid-range game provides more space for Duncan and driving guards to have less contested scoring opportunities in the paint. Nazr is almost useless outside 5-10 feet.

·The proficiency in the little things he does on the court that make the team more productive (screens, picks, proper position on the court on both offense and defense)

·Nazr's contract may be more appealing to a potential buyer due to the lower cap impact this year and financial flexibility it provides next year (it could also be argued that is more appealing to the Spurs as well) Of course that may only be true of teams trying to create flexibility. Someone wanting to keep Nazr long term may be handcuffed by the fact he was a UFA

·Well... I just like the big fella



So on to the tale of the tape.



Looking at Per/48 minute production of both of these players for their career (took the threes out because… well... you get the idea…)





Name G MP FG FGA FG% FT FTA FT%

Nesterovic 468 11680 6.6 13.62 48.5% 1.08 1.97 54.8%

Mohammed 386 7384 7.43 15.67 47.4% 3.44 5.38 63.9%



ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS PER EFF

4.21 7.31 11.52 2.11 0.87 2.69 2.05 5.87 14.28 13.04 21.51

5.61 8.91 14.52 0.86 1.5 1.76 2.87 6.02 18.3 15.4 23.89



When I look at these numbers and try to figure out the story they tell, I see the difference in aggressiveness and athleticism between Rasho and Nazr. Nazr takes more shots, gets to the foul line more often, is good for an extra 3 rebounds per 48 min, and gets almost a steal more . On the flip side he has less assists, probably due to his almost Rose-like refusal to surrender the ball in the paint, and more turnovers. Rasho is good for almost a block more per 48 and I attribute that to his better height and positioning on defense.



EDGE: Nazr



Then I want to look at how the team performs when they are on the floor. I have to look to 82games.com for this information because there really isn’t anyone else measuring what a single players contribution is to the team that isn’t just looking at what shows up on a stat line.



Looking first at the regular season and what the top floor combinations were in terms of how well they outscored their opposition while they were on the floor they are ranked like this.





# Unit +/-' PG

1 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Duncan-Nesterovic 4.56

2 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Rose-Duncan 3.24

3 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Horry-Duncan 2.41

4 Parker-Barry-Ginobili-Horry-Nesterovic 2.07

5 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Massenburg-Duncan 1.71

6 Udrih-Barry-Bowen-Duncan-Nesterovic 1.69

7 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Horry-Nesterovic 1.64

8 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Duncan-Nesterovic 1.29

9 Udrih-Barry-Ginobili-Rose-Duncan 1.27

10 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Rose-Duncan 0.95

11 Parker-Barry-Ginobili-Rose-Nesterovic 0.55

12 Parker-Brown-Bowen-Duncan-Nesterovic 0.11

13 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Horry-Duncan 0.00

14 Parker-Brown-Bowen-Horry-Duncan -0.04

15 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Horry-Nesterovic -0.24

16 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Horry-Massenburg -0.60

17 Parker-Brown-Bowen-Rose-Duncan -0.64

18 Udrih-Brown-Ginobili-Rose-Nesterovic -0.93

19 Udrih-Barry-Ginobili-Rose-Nesterovic -1.36

20 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Horry-Mohammed -1.73





So Rasho can be found on the 1, 4, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 15, 18, and 19 units. The only one that Nazr even cracks the top 20 on is number 20! And that shows that the best combination with him on the floor actually gets outscored! Interesting… Also interesting is that the second most effective floor unit had Rose J



Now let’s look in terms of Wins and Losses where a win is every time the unit outscored the opposing unit on the floor and a loss in vice versa.





# Unit W L Win%

1 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Duncan-Nesterovic 35 13 72.9

2 Parker-Barry-Ginobili-Horry-Nesterovic 10 4 71.4

3 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Rose-Duncan 12 5 70.5

4 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Horry-Duncan 23 11 67.6

5 Parker-Brown-Bowen-Duncan-Nesterovic 12 6 66.6

6 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Horry-Nesterovic 9 5 64.2

7 Udrih-Barry-Ginobili-Rose-Duncan 7 4 63.6

8 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Rose-Duncan 14 8 63.6

9 Parker-Barry-Ginobili-Rose-Nesterovic 7 4 63.6

10 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Duncan-Nesterovic 14 10 58.3

11 Udrih-Barry-Bowen-Duncan-Nesterovic 7 6 53.8

12 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Horry-Duncan 13 12 52

13 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Massenburg-Duncan 7 7 50

14 Parker-Brown-Bowen-Horry-Duncan 11 13 45.8

15 Parker-Brown-Bowen-Rose-Duncan 6 8 42.8

16 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Horry-Nesterovic 7 10 41.1

17 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Horry-Massenburg 4 6 40

18 Udrih-Barry-Ginobili-Rose-Nesterovic 4 7 36.3

19 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Horry-Mohammed 4 7 36.3

20 Udrih-Brown-Ginobili-Rose-Nesterovic 5 9 35.7



Once again Rasho is 1,2,5,6,9,10,11,16,18,20 and Nazr saddles up at 19. 7 out of 10 floor units Rasho was on had an above 50% win percentage.



Well, then I think to myself… “Its not really fair.. Nazr was not on the team long… Didn’t get much of a chance to play with Duncan due to his injury” So then I decide to take a look at him in New York. Not quite the best measurement since all the other players are now different and Rasho didn’t have an opportunity to play with them. But at least I figure I can see if the best units in NY were the ones where he was on the floor.





# Unit +/-' PG

1 Marbury-Crawford-Williams-K.Thomas-Sweetney 3.40

2 Marbury-Crawford-Hardaway-K.Thomas-Mohammed 3.33

3 Marbury-Hardaway-Ariza-Williams-Sweetney 2.36

4 Marbury-Crawford-T.Thomas-Williams-K.Thomas 2.18

5 Marbury-Crawford-T.Thomas-Rose-Sweetney 2.14

6 Marbury-Houston-T.Thomas-K.Thomas-Mohammed 1.38

7 Crawford-Jackson-Williams-Rose-Taylor 1.38

8 Marbury-Crawford-Ariza-K.Thomas-Sweetney 1.23

9 Marbury-Hardaway-T.Thomas-K.Thomas-Mohammed -0.14

10 Marbury-Crawford-Hardaway-T.Thomas-K.Thomas -0.17

11 Marbury-Crawford-T.Thomas-K.Thomas-Mohammed -0.82

12 Marbury-Crawford-Williams-K.Thomas-Mohammed -1.11

13 Marbury-Crawford-Ariza-K.Thomas-Mohammed -1.20

14 Marbury-Crawford-T.Thomas-Rose-K.Thomas -1.20

15 Marbury-Crawford-Hardaway-K.Thomas-Sweetney -1.30

16 Marbury-Hardaway-Ariza-K.Thomas-Sweetney -1.77

17 Marbury-Crawford-Rose-K.Thomas-Sweetney -2.00

18 Marbury-Crawford-T.Thomas-K.Thomas-Sweetney -2.20

19 Marbury-Ariza-T.Thomas-K.Thomas-Mohammed -2.33

20 Marbury-Houston-Williams-K.Thomas-Mohammed -2.56



There we go.. Nazr is at 2, 6, 9, 11, 12, 13, 19, and 20… but now wait a minute.. Rash was in the #1 overall and 5 of the top 10.. Nazr makes #2 and just 3 of the top 10… The units are already losing by the time you get to #9 but that is to be expected since the team wasn’t very good.



Let’s check out the Win/Loss





# Unit W L Win%

1 Marbury-Crawford-Hardaway-K.Thomas-Mohammed 8 1 88.8

2 Marbury-Crawford-T.Thomas-Williams-K.Thomas 9 2 81.8

3 Marbury-Hardaway-Ariza-Williams-Sweetney 8 3 72.7

4 Marbury-Crawford-Williams-K.Thomas-Sweetney 7 3 70

5 Crawford-Jackson-Williams-Rose-Taylor 4 4 50

6 Marbury-Crawford-T.Thomas-K.Thomas-Mohammed 16 17 48.4

7 Marbury-Houston-T.Thomas-K.Thomas-Mohammed 6 7 46.1

8 Marbury-Crawford-Ariza-K.Thomas-Sweetney 6 7 46.1

9 Marbury-Ariza-T.Thomas-K.Thomas-Mohammed 4 5 44.4

10 Marbury-Crawford-T.Thomas-Rose-Sweetney 3 4 42.8

11 Marbury-Hardaway-T.Thomas-K.Thomas-Mohammed 3 4 42.8

12 Marbury-Crawford-Ariza-K.Thomas-Mohammed 8 12 40

13 Marbury-Crawford-T.Thomas-Rose-K.Thomas 4 6 40

14 Marbury-Crawford-Hardaway-K.Thomas-Sweetney 4 6 40

15 Marbury-Crawford-T.Thomas-K.Thomas-Sweetney 16 24 40

16 Marbury-Crawford-Hardaway-T.Thomas-K.Thomas 2 4 33.3

17 Marbury-Houston-Williams-K.Thomas-Mohammed 3 6 33.3

18 Marbury-Hardaway-Ariza-K.Thomas-Sweetney 4 9 30.7

19 Marbury-Crawford-Rose-K.Thomas-Sweetney 2 6 25

20 Marbury-Crawford-Williams-K.Thomas-Mohammed 2 7 22.2



Ahh there we go.. Nazr is #1 then… ummm.. ohh!! 6, 7, 9, 11, 12, 17, and 20. He is only on one winning unit but again.. crappy team.. but wait.. Rasho is on 3 of the top 5 and 6 of 10. Nazr is 1 of 5 and 4 of 10. Why wasn’t Nazr a more important part of the Knicks team winning? Hmmnnn…



Finally let’s look at playoff units… Rasho hardly hit the floor in the playoffs so I wouldn’t expect to see him here but let’s see what kind of role Nazr played in winning those playoff games!!



Now bear in mind that you only make the list if your unit was one of the top 5 in minutes played during the playoffs. No trash time units and brief lineup tinkering will show.



# Unit +/-' PG

1 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Horry-Duncan 2.63

2 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Horry-Mohammed 1.11

3 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Duncan-Mohammed -1.20

4 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Horry-Duncan -1.65

5 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Duncan-Mohammed -2.56



OK so Nazr is on the 2,3 and 5. Hmnnn.. the starting 5 unit was actually outscored during the playoffs.. Units where Duncan and Mohammed are on the floor at the same time don’t do so well. Interesting.. is there a lack of chemistry and cohesiveness between TD and NH on the floor? Only more time together will tell.



Let’s take a look at W/L





# Unit W L Win%

1 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Horry-Duncan 15 4 78

2 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Horry-Mohammed 12 6 66

4 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Horry-Duncan 6 11 35

3 Parker-Ginobili-Bowen-Duncan-Mohammed 5 10 33

5 Parker-Barry-Bowen-Duncan-Mohammed 4 12 25



Little changes here.. still the best unit does not have NH on the floor and he is also on two of the worst.



OK so we have glanced at the unit breakdowns; let’s look at on and off the court performance regardless of who is on the floor with them.



Regular Season (per 48 minutes)





Rasho

Stat ONCourt OFFCourt Net

Minutes 1780 2173 45%

Offense:Ptsper100Poss. 109.9 108.1 1.8

Defense:Ptsper100Poss. 96.8 102.5 -5.7

NetPointsper100Possessions 13.1 5.7 7.4



Nazr

Stat ONCourt OFFCourt Net

Minutes 416 3538 10%

Offense:Ptsper100Poss. 103.2 109.6 -6.4

Defense:Ptsper100Poss. 109.4 98.8 10.7

NetPointsper100Possessions -6.3 10.8 -17



Sorry for the less than glamorous formatting. I had a hard time trying to figure out how to make a table.



OK so we see that Rasho was on the court 45% of the time. When he was on, the team scored 1.8 points more per 48 than when he was off. Also the defense gave up 5.7 points less when he was on the court. So the net effect was a positive 7.4 point difference per 48 minutes. Incidentally that is third best on the team behind Duncan and Ginobili of players who are on the floor at least 30% of the time.



Looking at Nazr he wasn’t on the team long enough to get any more than 10% of the total team minutes. In that time the offense was 6.4 points WORSE than when he was off the court and the defense was a whopping 10.7 points WORSE when he was on the court. Netting a lovely negative 17 point impact while he was on the floor.. ouch.. well.. he was on the team for such a short time and Duncan was not there so the stats could be skewed. Let’s take a look at his contribution to the Knicks to gain more perspective.





Nazr

Stat ONCourt OFFCourt Net

Minutes 1520 2448 38%

Offense:Ptsper100Poss. 104.1 108.7 -4.6

Defense:Ptsper100Poss. 108.9 111.1 -2.2

NetPointsper100Possessions -4.8 -2.4 -2.3



Ahh.. here we go, he was on the floor 38% of the time with the Knicks. That should give better data. Ok so the offense was.. well the offense was better when he was OFF the court by 4.6 points.. That’s not good... OK, how about defense AHH yes.. Defense was better by 2.2 points when he was ON the court.. That is good... netting him a... Well… NEGATIVE 2.3 point contribution to the team… hmmm. Also he was only 7th best in ON/OFF contribution on the Knicks of players with more than 30% of the minutes.



Ok finally we will look at playoffs. Rasho was only on the floor 10% of the time during the playoffs so the numbers don’t have much weight but we will look anyway. Now the argument over why Rasho was missing during the playoffs can be argued in so many different ways and its hard to know the truth without asking Pop himself. My personal take stems from watching Pop coach and his tendencies. One of his big ones is he doesn’t tinker with what is working. Looking back.. lineup shakeups only came after a loss or when losing, which is vintage Pop. If you aren’t a superstar like TD you have to either win your spot back or have the guy in front of you lose it. Also, I remember during a radio interview during either the Sonics or Suns series Pop said that Rasho was still hurt but I can’t find transcripts so I can’t back that one up.



Back to the business at hand…







Rasho

Stat ONCourt OFFCourt Net

Minutes 114 996 10%

Offense:Ptsper100Poss. 101.9 112.4 -10

Defense:Ptsper100Poss. 97 108.1 -11

NetPointsper100Possessions 4.9 4.3 0.6



Nazr

Stat ONCourt OFFCourt Net

Minutes 530 580 47%

Offense:Ptsper100Poss. 106.9 115.2 -8.3

Defense:Ptsper100Poss. 106.6 107.2 -0.6

NetPointsper100Possessions 0.3 8 -7.7



Ok so in the limited minutes that Rasho was on the floor the offense was significantly worse to the tune of NEGATIVE 10 points but, the defense was significantly better by 11 points so the net contribution was a POSTIVE .6. Hard to get excited about such limited playing time providing any sort of convincing picture.



On to Nazr… on the court 47% of the time. Offense was WORSE by 8.3 and the defense was BETTER by .6 for a net NEGATIVE of 7.7. Well now.. That’s interesting. The offense performed much better when Nazr was not on the floor, and the defense was only marginally better. Hmmm…



So after all of that….



EDGE: Rasho



So what have we learned today kids. Well one thing is that I am a big ‘ol nerd. Second, is that this may be the first time for all of you that a forum post put you to sleep. Finally, we have this…



Looking purely at individual statistical contribution, Nazr appears to be the better player. While he does not hold the edge in all categories, he holds it in enough, and by enough margins, that there is a noticeable difference. However, when looking at them in the context of team, there is cause for concern. Anyone who has watched this sport for any period of time has probably caught on to the fact that you can put up gaudy numbers but have a negative impact on the team. The work done by the folks at 82games is the best I have come across at trying to encapsulate what a players contribution is to a team outside of the statistics that are currently kept. Trying to capture all of the little things a player can do on the court to make his team better. I don’t think you can adequately argue that Rasho is not an intelligent player that knows what he is supposed to be doing to execute Pop’s offense and defense. He simply lacks aggressiveness and isn’t much of an athlete. Personally I don’t think aggressiveness is something you can teach. You either have that fire or you don’t. So the question is, can Nazr learn the intricacies that he needs in order to have a positive impact on the team, in addition to the positive impact to his stat line.



OK bottom line. What has this little trek into unbiased (hopefully) analysis of these two players told me?



If I had to get rid of one of them right now, I would trade Nazr. Rasho is locked up in a contract, that I don’t think is as bad as it seems, for another 4 years (that was supposed to be another aspect of this post but I ran out of time and will have to look at that later). Rasho understands the system and his role in it. Rasho appears to have a significantly positive impact to the effectiveness of the team when he is on the floor. As some people would say “His ceiling is low but his floor is high” basically meaning you pretty much know what you have with Rasho. It’s just the safer move at this point, both in terms of contract, and in terms of team production. If we were a struggling team that didn’t already have three legitimate offensive threats in the starting 5, I would say there is room to roll the dice in terms of risk/reward of Nazr, but we simply don’t need it.



If we waited until the trade deadline then I say the jury is still out. It’s quite possible that Nazr has not had the type of coaching he needs in order to blossom as a team player. More time with Pop and Co. could make him into a stud. Then the possibility opens to consider moving Rasho. Perhaps a team has a big go down and is a little more desperate to make a move during the season. We still have the issue of the sign-ability of Nazr though, and that bothers me. Are we comfortable taking the risk of trading Rasho and then losing Nazr to free agency? Perhaps the performance of Oberto will help there since he could buy us a few years to find a replacement if we lose both.



Incidentally, if it were up to me, we would wait and see how the beginning of this season plays out before making a move. Of course if the right offer came along now then you certainly have to consider it.

[travis2]

Oh my!

Very nice post, Dig

[JUUOT]

what i get out of this (no i did not fall asleep)

- rasho and nazr have a pretty similar impact (nazr better individual rasho team)
- Rasho has a better contract situation
- Nazr has a better potential (he is the same age however)
- rasho brings defense without being in the way in offense
- nazr brings athletism in both D and O but lack midrange game to stay out of the way in offense, and lack training camp to stay in position on D

In my point of view i give it to Rasho. It is the safer bet, we already have a learning (and not expensive) big with Oberto.

Do not trade rasho. give nazr a chance in the begining of the season and than trade him if he did not catch defense and sign a rasho type extension

PS: thanks bigDiggyD, in this time of the summer there is pretty much nothing new so it is good time to post this in depth analysis.

[Useruser666]

Very in-depth analysis.

Some other points to consider:

Were the +/- minus numbers scewed by certain games' numbers ?

How comparable are the numbers for Nazr during his time with the Knicks to his time here or with Rasho's time?

How well did Rasho fit the defensive system when he first arrived here as a Spur?

Could we re-sign Nazr now and worry about who will be traded later. This may risk being stuck with one and facing luxury taxes.

[batman2883]

Whatever happens, i just pray to god, that Rasho is sent packing, cause his poor play is not enough to cut it for the Spurs, we need someone more athletic and someone who has more of an all around game.

[travis2]

Geez...I get the feeling that if Rasho were somehow revealed as the second coming of Christ that some people here would be shouting for his death. Facts don't matter, they just confuse the issue, which is that he's not "athletic" enough...

[TexasAggie2005]

One caveat here, the +/- numbers are going to be skewed because Nazr was playing against better teams in the playoffs than Rasho was during the regular season. Otherwise, good work, I'm impressed.

[batman2883]

Im telling you guys, trade Rasho for a ham sandwhich, at least well get back something worth more than his skills.

[ChumpDumper]

How well did Rasho fit the defensive system when he first arrived here as a Spur?

Fairly quickly IIRC. Hedo seemed to get it the quickest but Rasho didn't lag far behind.

Could we re-sign Nazr now and worry about who will be traded later. This may risk being stuck with one and facing luxury taxes.

It's doubtful Nazr would sign an extension now -- he stands to make much more as a free agent if the rasise restrictions for extensions haven't changed.

[BigDiggyD]

Good questions and observations gang.. Here are some of my thoughts on the things that were brought up.

1) Were +/- numbers skewed by certain games? Certainly possible, the fewer minutes logged for the +/- numbers the more likely a few bad or good games could have a dramatic effect. However, when looking at the summary vs. the 5 man group data there are many more minutes of data and it's less likely to be an anomaly and more likely a trend.

2) How comparable were Nazr's numbers here vs time with the Knicks? Hard to say really, he didn't have enough time playing regular season games with the Spurs to get a good feel for the comparison. From the data that is available the Knicks were slightly more effective with him off the floor and the Spurs were much better with him off, but that is an unfair comparison because of the lack of minutes, and the fact we were dealing with injuries at the time. I am speaking specifically of regular season minutes.

3) How good was Rasho when he first arrived to the Spurs? Very good question. The answer is that in the 2003-2004 season the offense was worse (-3.9) and the defense was about the same (0.5) for a net NEGATIVE 4.4 points of production in his first year. Something of note is that Rasho had a positive effect on the TWolves the year prior to coming to the Spurs 2002-2003 of 0.7. However, for all the years this data has been kept (2002-2005) Nazr has NEVER had a positive effect on a team while he was on the floor, not the HAWKS (-7.5) in 02-03 and not the KNICKS in 03-04 (-2.8) and not the KNICKS this last year (-2.4). Interesting...I guess the question you have to ask yourself is. Do you give up someone who has shown to have a positive impact on two different ball clubs in three years for someone who has yet to prove that ANY team he has been on has been better off with him on the floor but has good potential.

4) How about resigning Nazr now and worry about who to trade later? Dangerous proposition. Teams know you have to get rid of one and would therefore hold a lot of leverage in negotiations.

5) +/- skewed because Nazr played in playoffs against much tougher opponents. That doesn't change the fact that the offense played considerably better with him OFF the floor and only marginally worse defense, during the playoffs. As for the regular season, Nazr was supposed to be one of the better players on a bad Knicks team, yet the +/- shows they were better off with him on the bench or gone. Rasho is SUPPOSEDLY a bad player on a great team yet the +/- shows the team is better with him on the floor than when he is not.

Let's not forget that originally the Knicks wanted to do a deal that was Nazr for Rasho straight up and the Spurs balked at losing Rasho. Then later when the Knicks wanted to do a Mohammed/Thomas for Nesterovic/Rose the Spurs also balked. My guess would be that the Spurs wanted to make sure they knew what they had in Nazr before letting go of Rasho. The fact that they are exploring trades with Rasho now makes me think they are more comfortable with Nazr now. I don't think there is much room to dispute that if Nazr "gets it" then he'll likely become a more productive contributor to the team than Raho, but there isn't any proof that he has ever "gotten it" in the past so that is a question mark. I have confidence in the Spurs to make an accurate assessment of Nazr's potential and make the right decision. If they believe he has never gotten the coaching he needs from the other teams then great.

I don't know how many of you who watched the playoffs and wondered where in the was the weak side help and defensive rotations as player after player cruised through the lane for slam dunks and lay-ups and realized that he was sitting on the bench nursing a bad ankle. Can Nazr be that guy? Of course he can. The question is will he, and if so, for how long?

Finally, don't think that these statistics are gospel. They are merely a tool used to try and form an unbiased opinion. They are not without their flaws. For example, as far as I know, the +/- is more accurately a measure of how good a player is compared to his primary backup. If they guy who comes in for you is considerably worse than you are then you will appear to have a more positive impact. Of course, what does that say about Nazr if that is true, because historically teams have been more productive with him on the bench.

[Useruser666]

4) How about resigning Nazr now and worry about who to trade later? Dangerous proposition. Teams know you have to get rid of one and would therefore hold a lot of leverage in negotiations.

I didn't mean that proposition wasn't risk free. If we manage to keep Rasho and lose Nazr for nothing, then isn't that worse than being stuck with both and looking for a trade?

[BigDiggyD]

I didn't mean that proposition wasn't risk free. If we manage to keep Rasho and lose Nazr for nothing, then isn't that worse than being stuck with both and looking for a trade?

Depends on if you're the one who has to write the checks to pay for both on top of the luxury tax penalty. I for one would not look forward to the hike in my season ticket prices

[TexasAggie2005]

Depends on if you're the one who has to write the checks to pay for both on top of the luxury tax penalty. I for one would not look forward to the hike in my season ticket prices

I think it's a moot point anyhow. Nazr probably isn't going to sign an extension. He might, I don't know enough about him to judge, but I doubt he will. Nazr stands to make a lot more money in free agency than we can sign him for with an extension, especially if he has a good season here next year. If we tried to sign him in free agency next summer, we'll end up with a worse contract with Rasho's and in a couple of years all you Rasho haters will be hating on the new "overpaid" center.

And what other people are saying is right, it's too much money sitting on the bench. I could see making a trade once the season starts, but no way we hold both past the trade deadline.

[wildbill2u]

I wonder if the FO and Pop do such a detailed analysis themselves or simply use figures like this from someone's website. I'm blown away by the analysis.

It reinforces my gut reaction that the NASR contract situation--and whether he 'gets it' prior to the trade deadline--is the key to which one stays or goes. Oberto is clearly the insurance pickup as a backup.

[Kori Ellis]

I wonder if the FO and Pop do such a detailed analysis themselves or simply use figures like this from someone's website. I'm blown away by the analysis

The Spurs brass (led by Sam Presti) actually have an incredible detailed statistical analysis system that they use to evaluate potential players, so I'm sure that they don't just rely on someone else when evaluating their own current players.

The Spurs system is so highly touted that other teams trying duplicating it, and Pritchard (former Spurs scout, now Blazers director of player personnel) is trying to ins ute it in Portland.

[BigDiggyD]

The Spurs brass (led by Sam Presti) actually have an incredible detailed statistical analysis system that they use to evaluate potential players, so I'm sure that they don't just rely on someone else when evaluating their own current players.

The Spurs system is so highly touted that other teams trying duplicating it, and Pritchard (former Spurs scout, now Blazers director of player personnel) is trying to ins ute it in Portland.

I am sure that the Spurs system is far superior to my own. Mine is just scratching the surface. I just am trying to add a different look at the topic to my fellow forum buddies. Professional organizations have access to information and resources that I am not privvy too, so I am limited in how many different ways I can look at a situation. Plus I have real work to do http://spurstalk.com/forums/images/s.../smipctoss.gif
Its a slow process but we are reaching a new evolution in basketball where organizations are waking up to the fact that paying max contracts to 5 20ppg scorers does not mean you will have a successful team.