Hurricane Irma

[baseline bum]

What's an 8.0 and CDG?

[UNT Eagles 2016]

As usual, follow the Euro and all will be revealed. It's by far the best model we have on the planet right now.

The Euro = the ECMWF.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

What's an 8.0 and CDG?

8.0 on the Dvorak scale = a moderate Cat 5 hurricane, roughly 165-175 mph winds. Dvorak scale, also known as McTavish or "T" numbers, is NOAA's technique for tracking hurricane intensity.

Don't know what CDG is.

[Cry Havoc]

8.0 on the Dvorak scale = a moderate Cat 5 hurricane, roughly 165-175 mph winds. Dvorak scale, also known as McTavish or "T" numbers, is NOAA's technique for tracking hurricane intensity.

Don't know what CDG is.

8.0 is actually top of the Dvorak. Only two storms have ever gone over an 8. Haiyan and Patricia.

CDG is the temperature of the cloud tops around the eye. In Dvorak classification it stands for "cold dark grey", which is the coldest that our charts allow for, usually below negative 85 degrees Fahrenheit. Haiyans tops may have been around -130. When you see a ring of CDG clouds around the eye of a hurricane it means it's as strong as we can possibly measure with present instrumentation. Extremely rare for a WPAC storm to get there, let alone an Atlantic hurricane. I don't believe even Wilma had that presentation.

[Cry Havoc]

The Euro = the ECMWF.

Yuuup. Kicks our butts and sadly we won't be getting more funds for our models anytime soon.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

8.0 is actually top of the Dvorak. Only two storms have ever gone over an 8. Haiyan and Patricia.

CDG is the temperature of the cloud tops around the eye. In Dvorak classification it stands for "cold dark grey", which is the coldest that our charts allow for, usually below negative 85 degrees Fahrenheit. Haiyans tops may have been around -130. When you see a ring of CDG clouds around the eye of a hurricane it means it's as strong as we can possibly measure with present instrumentation. Extremely rare for a WPAC storm to get there, let alone an Atlantic hurricane. I don't believe even Wilma had that presentation.

I've seen quite a few in the WPAC get greys (-85C, not Fahrenheit I'm pretty sure) even weaker/less organized storms with heaps of disorganized convection, such as Man-Yi in 2007, simply because the heat ocean content over there is ridiculous compared to the Atlantic or EPAC.

[Cry Havoc]

I've seen quite a few in the WPAC get greys (-85C, not Fahrenheit I'm pretty sure) even weaker/less organized storms with heaps of disorganized convection, such as Man-Yi in 2007, simply because the heat ocean content over there is ridiculous compared to the Atlantic or EPAC.

A ring of CDG is exceptionally rare for any storm. They can have patches, but a spinning core of CDG had never been observed prior to Haiyan. You might have seen CMG "cold medium gray".

And yeah, don't know why I wrote Farenheit. As if any met obs are recorded in F.

[Cry Havoc]

177mph winds pressure down to 914mb according to last hurricane hunter pass.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

ECMWF (Euro) now misses Florida to the east as well. Still could be a fish storm, models trending that way

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Explaining the models.....

- "OFCL" = the official NHC forecast track, not a model

Tier 1:

- European global model (ECMWF) and associated hurricane model (HWRF)
- American global model (GFS) and associated hurricane model (HMON, formerly known as the GFDL)

Tier 2:

- British global model (UKMET) which does not have an associated hurricane model

Tier 3:

- Canadian global model (CMC) and associated hurricane model (GEM)
- U.S. Navy global model (NOGAPS) and associated hurricane model (NAVGEM)
- Advection models (BAM and TAB suite; S = shallow, M = medium, D = deep... "deep" would definitely apply to a major hurricane like Irma)
- LBAR and other "minor" models

Reference models (do not use to determine a track of each individual storm)

- CLIP & CLP5 models..... strictly based on climatology; the average track the storm would historically take given its position, intensity, speed, and month of year

- XTRP model..... ("extrapolation model") ...strictly where the storm were to go if it continued its current exact direction and forward speed

- SHIPS model..... strictly predicts intensity of a storm, with land interaction not a factor

- DSHIP (Decay Ship) model..... strictly predicts intensity of a storm, with land interaction a factor

[baseline bum]

8.0 on the Dvorak scale = a moderate Cat 5 hurricane, roughly 165-175 mph winds. Dvorak scale, also known as McTavish or "T" numbers, is NOAA's technique for tracking hurricane intensity.

Don't know what CDG is.

8.0 is actually top of the Dvorak. Only two storms have ever gone over an 8. Haiyan and Patricia.

CDG is the temperature of the cloud tops around the eye. In Dvorak classification it stands for "cold dark grey", which is the coldest that our charts allow for, usually below negative 85 degrees Fahrenheit. Haiyans tops may have been around -130. When you see a ring of CDG clouds around the eye of a hurricane it means it's as strong as we can possibly measure with present instrumentation. Extremely rare for a WPAC storm to get there, let alone an Atlantic hurricane. I don't believe even Wilma had that presentation.

Thanks for clearing that up.

[pgardn]

She's an evil looking

Time for pirate talk and meteorology.

Thermodynamics.

She be a harsh winsome mistress.

R

[benefactor]

Irma is about to eat St. Thomas.

[Brazil]

I'm quite impressed, did not know ST had so many dudes understanding storm tbh..

this site is crazy.. what I read here give more info than the weather sites... hats off ST

[SnakeBoy]

Damn, looks more like a tornado coming in

[SpursforSix]

Recon found 199mph winds just 80ft off the surface. Unreal. Still a 180mph storm but with a central pressure of 917.

so it weakened? I wonder if it'll only be a weak cat 5 or strong cat 4 at landfall

I appreciate that you guys are interested in the weather but unless you can show me some credentials, I'll ask that you refrain from posting as you don't truly understand the complexities of hurricane forecasting.
Lives are at stake.

Thank you.

[Darth_Pelican]

Damn, looks more like a tornado coming in

I like how people decide to take a ride in their cars when a cat 5 hurricane is in progress.

[RD2191]

Damn, looks more like a tornado coming in

Ho lee .

[Mark Celibate]

Damn, looks more like a tornado coming in

This video is fake, the original has been up over a year tbh

[SnakeBoy]

This video is fake, the original has been up over a year tbh

Well . Anyhoo here it is hitting Florida already

[Mark Celibate]

Well . Anyhoo here it is hitting Florida already

rofl yeah I'm not sure what the video originally was (maybe a tornado) but I saw the same one last year for Hurricane Matthew

[Mark Celibate]

wew lad

[RD2191]

Well . Anyhoo here it is hitting Florida already

I've been fooled

[SpursforSix]

I've been fooled

This is EXACTLY why I've asked that people refrain from posting unless they have the credentials to comment intelligently on Hurricane Irma.

[Darth_Pelican]