Why not just hold a national coin toss every 4 years instead of a national election?

[Ef-man]

This is the goalpost move. You're such a dunce.

That was the whole point of Yam s winning the popular vote being wish casting, idiot.

Keep up, muh National polls

[Will Hunting]

Will Hunting the most objective, active, insider Democrat on this message board who actually knows the politicians and is in a way a (D) internal but fair, has said the same exact thing

just look at 2022 compared to 2020, the margin was under 20% and a lot of the localized races went (R)... there's a large chunk of the population, largely suburbanites and working class Latinos, that are pissed with the Newsom administration and various cost of living increases through the roof, lifestyle decreases, overall societal decay in CA that's happened in the past decade-plus... the fact that they can't write off their 11-13.3% state income tax anymore since 2018 isn't going to be what they vote on tbh. It's much more of an issue in, say, the suburban Minnesota twin cities, though (D) state government including the VP nominee himself could also lower the tax burden there too tbh.

I don't think it's a zero percent chance Trump wins election and loses popular vote. 2022 was a decent example of how it could happen. Not saying midterms are everything, but that's essentially what 2022 equated to on the federal level.

The chances of Trump winning the PV and losing the EC are definitely very close to 0% . With Biden as the nominee there was a tiny chance at it happening just because of how much Biden was falling off a cliff in deep blue states while the whole “Scranton Joe!” act makes it so he could have overperformed in the upper Midwest / rust belt.

As whether CA moves right or left and what BB said - even though Trump did raise their taxes voters are stupid and they generally view high taxes / tax increases as policies Democrats should be blamed for whether or not it’s fair. Tens of millions of people claim that their taxes have gone up under Biden even though Biden has literally made no changes to individual income tax rates .

Gavin Newsom meanwhile is a terrible governor who doesn’t actually do anything other than grandstand about how Glocktavius and Watermelonisha wouldn’t kill each other if not for the gun lobby. The local governance is California is terrible and in 2022 CA voters largely took that out on federal Dem candidates which I see happening again.

[Millennial_Messiah]

The chances of Trump winning the PV and losing the EC are definitely very close to 0% . With Biden as the nominee there was a tiny chance at it happening just because of how much Biden was falling off a cliff in deep blue states while the whole “Scranton Joe!” act makes it so he could have overperformed in the upper Midwest / rust belt.

As whether CA moves right or left and what BB said - even though Trump did raise their taxes voters are stupid and they generally view high taxes / tax increases as policies Democrats should be blamed for whether or not it’s fair. Tens of millions of people claim that their taxes have gone up under Biden even though Biden has literally made no changes to individual income tax rates .

Gavin Newsom meanwhile is a terrible governor who doesn’t actually do anything other than grandstand about how Glocktavius and Watermelonisha wouldn’t kill each other if not for the gun lobby. The local governance is California is terrible and in 2022 CA voters largely took that out on federal Dem candidates which I see happening again.

I agree regarding the California stuff and with the notion that Biden would have been the better candidate for the rust belt especially PA, and the scenario of 270D - 268R in the EC was much more likely with Biden than with Harris because Biden's rust belt appeal was much stronger than Harris's (and his sun belt appeal quite possibly somewhat weaker than Harris's). I don't think Kamala is necessarily more popular than Biden in the deep blue states, honestly, outside of maybe the Bay Area specifically, so therefore I disagree that it's close to 0%. It's not the most likely scenario, and quite possibly the 4th most likely (i.e. least likely out of the four possibilities) but I don't think it's zero percent or even single digit %.

Regarding the taxes I think some of the left leaning populists might be pissed off with Biden/Harris for not outright repealing the 2017/18 TCJA outright or at least the part that makes it illegal to deduct state income tax over 10k (minus their property tax, because the stupid SALT deduction in the TCJA is $10k and counts both property tax and SALT income tax as one en y -- screwing over the middle class in SALT states/jurisdictions more). Biden/Harris would inevitably allow the tax cuts to expire in 2025. I don't believe it brings back the individual mandate for the ACA (the one good thing about the TCJA IMO) and it doesn't bring back fully itemized deductions pre-TCJA either, correct me if I'm wrong, but all it would do is restore the pre-2018 tax rates.

[ElNono]

i'll be sure to bookmark this post in case Trump wins the national popular vote

He didn't win it when he was a "better" candidate (ie: unknown), he's not winning it now.

[Millennial_Messiah]

He didn't win it when he was a "better" candidate (ie: unknown), he's not winning it now.

He got 8M more in-person votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. (While it's true, Biden roughly doubled that amount in getting almost 16M more mail-in votes than Hillary got, you can attribute a lot of that to covid.) We're not getting covid-level turnout in 2024, sorry. Early absentee and mail-in ballot requests from the states that are allowing already are strongly favoring Trump and the GOP at this moment. Maybe more Dems will vote early in person in 2024 that voted by mail in 2020, who knows, but the raw data doesn't look good for the Democrats so far in a demographic of method of voting where the Dems need to win by roughly double the margin and amount what they are currently pulling to equal their 2020 level of success and they simply aren't.