A Slight Glitch in the 2008 Master Plan

[Bruno]

Using your conservative "pessimistic" figure of 1%. Why do you keep bending around this? It is far more likely to be 3% and just as likely to be 5%. Using your realistic figure, the cap number comes very close to $60M.

The computation I've made is with the 3% figure.
3% of $53M isn't $3M it's $1.6M.

[Kori Ellis]

The computation I've made is with the 3% figure.
3% of $53M isn't $3M it's $1.6M.

I don't know why no one is understanding that you are using the 3% figure.

[Kori Ellis]

AFAIK, Bruce can't opt out this summer it's up to Spurs to keep him or waive him.

Another think is that Horry last year isn't fully guaranteed (like Danny Ferry) : I really think that Spurs won't keep him to save money and will sign Bonner as replacement.

Well they wouldn't waive him. They can choose not to pick up his option and then negotiate a new contract, right? That is what I'm saying I think will happen. I shouldn't have said he would opt out. Moreso, they would opt out.

[Mr. Body]

Ah, my math. The last few years the cap has jumped higher than that, though, right? I forget where I found it, but it's jumped far more than $1.some a year.

[Kori Ellis]

Ah, my math. The last few years the cap has jumped higher than that, though, right? I forget where I found it, but it's jumped far more than $1.some a year.

2004-05 $43.87 million
2005-06 $49.5 million
2006-07 $53.135 million

[Mr. Body]

So, to reverse the discussion a little. Why the absurdly conservative estimates by Bruno? The cap has leapt forward in recent years.

[AFBlue]

Another think is that Horry last year isn't fully guaranteed (like Danny Ferry) : I really think that Spurs won't keep him to save money and will sign Bonner as replacement.

Agreed on this. Either Horry retires or he goes to play for another contender as their not-so-secret playoff weapon.

[ShoogarBear]

2004-05 $43.87 million
2005-06 $49.5 million = +12.8%
2006-07 $53.135 million = +7.3%

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

difference will be, people want to play beside Tim, even a 31 or 32 year old Tim.

Sincerely,

Jermaine O'Neal
Jason Kidd
Chris Webber
Stephen Jackson
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Some people never learn...

[Bruno]

Well they wouldn't waive him. They can choose not to pick up his option and then negotiate a new contract, right? That is what I'm saying I think will happen. I shouldn't have said he would opt out. Moreso, they would opt out.

Either Spurs keep him and paid $4,125,000 or they waive him and give him $2M.

Bowne last year isn't a team option or palyer option year : it's a year that isn't fully guaranteed. They can't opt out, they had to waived him.
Can they waive him and re-sign him later ?
Higly unlikely because they will have to gamble that he clears waivers and wait 20 days before re-signing him.

however, Spurs can extend his contract this summer.

[Supergirl]

At the time, Detroit needed a big man that could play defense and score. Darko was that man. Darko was considered a top 3 pick that year, along with Lebron and Melo. Detroit already had Prince, so they felt Melo wasn't a necessity. Here is a little fact of knowledge about Melo...he canceled the Pistons draft workout. Why draft a guy who didn't want to work out for you? Joe D. didn't know that he would be getting Rasheed later in the year for table scraps.

Anyways, we got another first round pick out of it all, so we will see how it goes. With the Magic tanking like they are, it likely we could very well have a top 15 pick in a stockpiled draft. We also have our first rounder, so we can always try and trade up.

How could Dumars have possibly known he would get Sheed? No one could have seen that one coming - it was borne out of a slow deterioration of the situation in Portland and a need to try and bring back some Portland fans. It was a steal, maybe one of the biggest ones ever, but Dumars could not possibly have known about it in advance.

I didn't know Carmelo cancelled a workout with the Pistons. Interesting.

[Marklar MM]

How could Dumars have possibly known he would get Sheed? No one could have seen that one coming - it was borne out of a slow deterioration of the situation in Portland and a need to try and bring back some Portland fans. It was a steal, maybe one of the biggest ones ever, but Dumars could not possibly have known about it in advance.

I didn't know Carmelo cancelled a workout with the Pistons. Interesting.

He heard that Detroit liked Darko's workout, so he just cancelled his. And I said that about Sheed...Joe D. didn't know he would be getting the big man that could defend and score, so he picked Darko.

[Bruno]

2004-05 $43.87 million
2005-06 $49.5 million = +12.8%
2006-07 $53.135 million = +7.3%

It's a little more complicate than that.
Rules have changed between these years because of the new CBA.
next summer raise will be lower.

[Marklar MM]

A clip from a espn article.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nbadraft/d03/story?id=1566626

-- The Detroit Pistons are set to take 7-foot-1 Darko Milicic with the second pick in the NBA draft.

Carmelo Anthony, the other player most considered in the running to follow Cleveland's selection of LeBron James in the draft order, canceled his scheduled workout with the Pistons.

Joe Dumars, Detroit's president of basketball operations, was asked if Anthony's cancellation on Tuesday provided a clear indication that the Pistons would take Milicic.

"Yes,'' Dumars told The Associated Press on Wednesday night.

[Kori Ellis]

Either Spurs keep him and paid $4,125,000 or they waive him and give him $2M.

Bowne last year isn't a team option or palyer option year : it's a year that isn't fully guaranteed. They can't opt out, they had to waived him.
Can they waive him and re-sign him later ?
Higly unlikely because they will have to gamble that he clears waivers and wait 20 days before re-signing him.

however, Spurs can extend his contract this summer.

Hmm... I asked around and I understood it as a team option year.

And if they chose not to pick up the team option, then they would have to pay him $2M.

I understand that Horry's situation next year is how you are outlining Bowen's. But maybe you are right.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I'm not so sure that Bruce won't opt out THIS summer and then re-structure (again) for a 2 year deal for lower money per year ... so yes, that will eat a little of the 2008 money.

Another few questions ... do you guys think that Horry will retire this summer? Do you think it's possible that Finley or Oberto don't pick up their options? Do you think they'll be able to move Beno this summer?

Not sure on the Bowen thing.

I feel pretty confident that Horry will retire this summer. Unfortunately, I see both Finley and Oberto picking up their options

Finley because he feels at home and feels he still has something left to prove, and Oberto because he knows this will be the last contract he gets in the NBA.

I don't expect Beno to be on our roster at the start of the season next year.

In a perfect world, Acie Law falls to the Spurs and RC and Pop actually nut up and draft an American

[Kori Ellis]

It's a little more complicate than that.
Rules have changed between these years because of the new CBA.
next summer raise will be lower.

I think you are right. Most people aren't expecting the salary cap to be over $55M for next year. But who knows.

[Bruno]

Hmm... I asked around and I understood it as a team option year.

And if they chose not to pick up the team option, then they would have to pay him $2M.

I understand that Horry's situation next year is how you are outlining Bowen's. But maybe you are right.

Or I can be wrong too : it can a team option as you said. Both cases are possible.

Anyway, I don't see what can be the edge of signing a new contract this summer over a simple contract extension for Bowen or Spurs.

espn list Bowen as a player with a limited salary protection for next year, not very precise : http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2654216

[Spurs Brazil]

We need to sign Nocioni in the offseason

[MajorMike]

About Tony Allen, I love how he plays the game with intensity and aggressiveness. He's great when slashing to the basket and drawing contact. But, I would have concerns about bringing him on...

1. He's undersized for a SG and, unlike D Wade, isn't versatile enough to handle the point and distribute to others...he's a scorer.

2. He'll have to recover well from the knee surgeries and even then it would be tough to say that he can have all of his athleticism back. That hurts his stock because he relies on the first step and athleticism to create on offense.

I like the kid, but I don't know how much value he has coming off the knee surgery...

Which is exactly why I think the Celts will dump him.

[phxspurfan]

They could've had Melo, now they get? I still like the moves they've made, but the Milicic thing was a HUGE misstep.

You can't blame them for this mistake for the following reasons:

1. They didn't need any help/additions to their already strong rotation when they had that pick, so they chose a long term prospect.

2. Darko was predicted to be quite good. Almost good enough to usurp lebron for the first spot in some columns I read.

3. Larry Brown. I'm sure he voiced his opinion on the draft pick and went with a guy he could use in practice and sit at the end of his bench behind the vets for at least a year.

4. Besides Melo, not a lot of people knew how good Wade would be either. Who knew? The guy is easily the most successful of the three right now. Not to mention CP3. MJ didn't go in the top 2 when he was drafted, either...

[phxspurfan]

People have made good points that these numbers don't take into account some young players that teams will want to resign. I probably should have done more annotation about which of those players will not be under contract.

Still, looking at Orlando, even if they decide to resign Darko and Jameer, and extend Howard, they'll probably have about $20 million to play with, assuming they don't decide to pick up somebody before then.

Orlando is definitely re-signing both Darko and Jameer. Book it.

[Peter]

Orlando has a better '08 plan.

[Big P]

Orlando has a better '08 plan.

And we have 3 championships.

[Peter]

Yeah, those were fun. Now on to 2008.