DES MOINES, Iowa — As Thursday’s caucuses approach, political insiders say the outcome is more in doubt than perhaps ever before. That’s partly because neither party has a front-runner — and also because Iowa polling has provided as many questions as answers.
Those uncertainties have persisted into the campaign’s final hours in the wake of Monday’s release of the Des Moines Register poll.
The poll remains the most respected of Iowa surveys, in part because it accurately predicted the 2004 result.
But its conclusion that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (D) hold clear leads not only contrasted with the narrow margins of other polls but also was based on two stunning findings: record high turnout by independents and a strong reliance on first-time caucus-goers.
Obama’s internal polling also shows him ahead, according to a senior adviser in the campaign, but Clinton’s chief strategist, Mark Penn, challenged the Register’s results outright.
Most alarming, in the view of Hillary Rodham Clinton's camp, is the Register’s finding that four in 10 Democratic caucus-goers will be independents.
The New York senator still leads among Democrats and would win, Penn pointed out, if the 2008 independent turnout comes in at a level closer to that of previous caucuses.
In 2004, only 19 percent of Democratic caucus-goers were independents. In 2000, the figure was 17 percent, according to a CNN entrance poll. If the Register is right, 2008 would mark an historic doubling of independents participating in the Democratic contest.
The Register’s independent expectation is also roughly 10 percent larger than that of other polls, like those run by John Zogby for Reuters. Zogby’s poll, released Wednesday, finds a statistical tie between Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, as well as among the three leading Democrats.
But the Register poll remains the gold standard in terms of its accuracy.
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