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You have to proudly embrace betas like him in lieu of coming out to your parents.
The power of Christ compels you derp, be gone, be gone! Quick, Reck, the holy water!
You have to proudly embrace betas like him in lieu of coming out to your parents.
the Lincoln Project is trolling the out of her for this. They're calling her MAGAMcSally and telling people to tweet food emojis to her.
Yeah she has been trending since last night and major news sites have picked this up. What a dumb .
The GOP needs to stop spending money on her campaign and Gardner's campaign. If things get really bad for Trump, they should probably drop Collins too and focus on winning Iowa/Montana/Kansas so the Dems only have a 50-51 vote majority. IMO if they have a slim majority the GOP will be able to block most legislation. If the Dems win enough races and pick up 53-54 seats, I think there's a real shot they blow the filibuster up.
Kansas isn't actually winnable for the Democrats is it? No Kobach, no Sam Brownback to poison the ticket on the GOP side.
Polls are within the margin of error. As bad as Kobach was Marshall isn’t a great candidate either and I think the trickle down Brownbackonomics were such a disaster in Kansas it did permanently flip a lot of Kansas City suburb voters blue.
September 1 is a big day.
If Morse can beat Neal in the primary next week, it's a big victory for progressive Dems. Neal personifies the rot within the Democratic Party and the race is within the margin of error for the first time.
The primary race between Kennedy and Markey is also a big deal. If Markey wins Pelosi will look like the stupid she is for endorsing Kennedy.
Keep in mind RandomGuy, any rewrites to the tax code will have Richie Neal's fingerprints all over them if he wins his primary (he chairs the House Ways and Means Committee). Neal gets more PAC money from Wall Street, private equity and Big Pharma than any other Democrat in Congress, and he's equivocated about whether he'd support reversing Trump's corporate tax cut even though that's part of the Dem platform.
This one isn't just about being able to score a win for progressives, getting Neal out of office will have a material positive impact on both being able to replace Trump's 2017 tax plan and adding a public option to Obamacare.
Oh yeah, THAT one. That bothered me. The "corporate" Democrats that have attracted so much money for campaigns have basically subverted the entire process and the party itself.
Pelosi will have hard enough time managing the diverse group without having to needlessly create acrimony by backing someone who is out of touch with the zeitgeist. Ask Delay about that.
All I can say is that she's lucky the George Floyd didn't happen until late May/early June. Since that happened black voters have stopped being the loyal establishment supporters they used to be. If the COVID-19 outbreak and George Floyd ocurred earlier in the year, Sanders would be the candidate and a lot of the other in bent Dems would have lost.
2022 will be interesting, with redistricting there will inevitably be vulnerable establishment in bents that the Justice Dems/Sunrise movement can go after.
Get ready for a barrage of polling.
We have gotten our first huge batch of polls from Morning Consult.
Arizona
- Before convention: Trump 47%, Biden 45%
- Latest survey: Biden 52%, Trump 42%
Colorado
- Before convention: Biden 51%, Trump 41%
- Latest survey: Biden 51%, Trump 41%
Florida
- Before convention: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
- Latest survey: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
Georgia
- Before convention: Trump 47%, Biden 46%
- Latest survey: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
Michigan
- Before convention: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
- Latest survey: Biden 52%, Trump 42%
Minnesota
- Before convention: Biden 50% Trump 42%
- Latest survey: Biden, 50%, Trump 43%
North Carolina
- Before convention: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
- Latest survey: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
Ohio
- Before convention: Trump 49%, Biden 45%
- Latest survey: Trump 50%, Biden 45%
Pennsylvania
- Before convention: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
- Latest survey: Biden 49%, Trump 45%
Texas
- Before convention: Trump 47%, Biden 46%
- Latest survey: Trump 48%, Biden 47%
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ll/3455027001/Wisconsin
- Before convention: Biden 49%, Trump 43%
- Latest survey: Biden 52%, Trump 43%
I would love for them to prove me wrong, but I don't trust Morning Consult since it's online only. Less worried about the Emerson poll from yesterday though since it was intended to duplicate 2016 turnout levels. If Biden duplicates 2016 turnout levels then there's no question he's in trouble.
One nugget that no one is paying attention to - the Alaska Senate race is getting closer, and a poll released yesterday shows it tied up. I don't think the Lincoln Project would be dumping as much money into that race unless Gross had a shot at beating Sullivan.
Time to stop dumping money into the McGrath race and focus on the ones that are winnable.
So fake. You won't be putting a penny on Biden winning Michigan/AZ/Wisconsin by double digits.
This from another poll
https://www.latimes.com/politics/sto...mpression=true
Not sure how accurate these guys are as I haven’t heard from them either but losing over 9% support from 2016 has got to be almost lethal.
Specially when you know where your losing them from. Suburbs
The USC Dornsife/LA Times poll was worshipped by Trumpers 4 years ago, the fact it has Biden up by so much this time around matters if it's using the same methodology as last time. It had Trump winning the popular vote by several points in 2016.
Here are the USC Dornsife polls from 2016 before any Trumper replies to my post and gets angry:
3, with 4.5 moe so it was one of the few late polls which was outside. I read somewhere they're still using a lot of the same people they used last time, too lazy to look it up
I like their methodology of polling the same group over time. You can't rely on that in and of itself but it's useful data.
Here are the USC Dornsife polls from 2016 before any Trumper replies to my post and gets angry:
They went all in.
Then maybe that's why they feel so confident with their 9% stat. If the same people you polled in 2016 are telling you Trump's lost them then that gives it some merit in it's own way.
The article you posted actually breaks it down well. It's effectively a net loss of 5% for Trump, 9% of Trumpers now voting Biden and 4% of Shillary voters now supporting Trump. If that's actually true and 5% of Trump's 2016 supporters are now voting for Biden, it's a landslide victory for Biden.
They went all in.
Then maybe that's why they feel so confident with their 9% stat. If the same people you polled in 2016 are telling you Trump's lost them then that gives it some merit in it's own way.
IMO both campaigns should be spending 80% of their money and resources on turnout and 20% on trying to flip undecided voters. The one thing almost every poll has shown this year is that there aren't very many undecided voters left.
Eyup. Bear in mind what I call the +2 effect.
They went all in.
Then maybe that's why they feel so confident with their 9% stat. If the same people you polled in 2016 are telling you Trump's lost them then that gives it some merit in it's own way.
One person flipping their votes subtracts one from candidate A and adds one to candidate B, for a two vote swing in total differential. (A-B)
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