Not sure I've fleshed out your response to 3 yet. Per the calculations made by timpv above, before re-signing Duncan this summer the Spurs sit at 49M in a years where the cap (as I understand) is supposed to near 59M.
Even if the Spurs re-sign Green, give Mills that PO, and retain Blair, couldn't they sign another player up to the cap amount, and then use the Bird Exception to sign Duncan?
Sure the Spurs could exceed the cap amount (the whole point of the Bird Rule), but if I'm Holt I'm happy my FO was shrewd enough to saved me having to pay RJ for nothing, and, up to a certain point, I'm happy to use the difference to pay luxury tax on Duncan's salary.
So by my count:
(1) 49M in committed salary
(2) 1M player option for Mills
(3) 3M -- max that I see Spurs matching on a QO from Green
(4) 3M -- Diaw (I just don't think his negotiating posture is that strong)
(5) MINUS 1M by letting Blair walk
That puts the Spurs at 55M
The Spurs could then use the Bird Exception and MLE on Duncan and Lorbek respectively even if it means exceeding the $59M cap.

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