Good to hear about DeJuan. I still doubt he'd last as the backup 4 next to Splitter but this gives hope that Pop will use Blair before Bonner.
I have no problem with Dejuan starting. The Spurs clearly are not a super defensive team anymore, Blair can help on the offensive glass, throw his big ass body around causing havoc. Manu can get any big man with decent hands offense some buckets on offense, too. There's really nothing to lose for trying any new rotations at this point. I'd encourage it so they spread minutes out initially (put in a more consistent rotation closer to playoffs, 2nd half of season), find what works best.
The argument for Blair to not start is that per 100 possession, the Spurs score 7.8 points less on offense when he's on the court, and they give up 2.5 points more on defense. Ouch.
Numbers-wise, the best way to win games is to minimize his playing time. But when we do play him, we want to minimize his negative impact, and that can happen by looking at what 5-man rotations produce the highest net points (as timvp did). It's hard to judge the impact of the Blair-Duncan pairing because they pretty much always play together, so we don't know what it's like apart --- but, I'm 100% on board with timvp's reasoning, and I completely agree that it makes total sense to have them together. So while I agree Blair is best utilized with Duncan, where I disagree is that he should be utilized much at all. Diaw is a more efficient player, and the Spurs score more offense and give up less on defense when he's out there. The Diaw-Duncan pairing has been successful, and although I didn't split out the tables in the link below, it looks like his production with Duncan is better than his production with other players.
http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS19.HTM <-- Blair stats
http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS18.HTM <-- Diaw stats
If we're willing to go beyond the conventional, we should have Bonner start. He fails the eye test, but he not only passes the points/winning test, he crushes it. In 1300 minutes, the Spurs scored 8.3 more points on offense with Bonner out there, and were better on defense by 0.8 points. Like we seem to see every year, in 2011-2012 Bonner was once again the team leader in Spurs performance with him on the court vs. off. When you adjust for who he plays with, like we seem to see every year, in 2012 he was once again 4th on the team behind Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili.
Basically, if you want your team to score points and win games, you want Bonner. If you want your team to be athletic and have the look of a prototype team, you don't want Bonner.
http://www.82games.com/1112/11SAS14.HTM <-- Bonner stats
http://www.82games.com/1112/1112SAS.HTM <-- Team stats
In the playoffs, you want to play your best 6 players heavy minutes, and beyond the 8th man, minutes should be very scarce. The 2012 Spurs had a lot of success in the regular season and first two playoff rounds playing 10-11 guys, but it has never been a winning recipe and that was proven again in the WCF.
The problem is that, of the Spurs' 8 best players, 4 are wings. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Splitter, Jackson, Diaw, and Green are the 8 best, but only one is a PG. If Pop is willing to try giving Duncan and Ginobili big minutes in the playoffs (what do you have to lose?), I could see a 7-8 man playoff rotation that doesn't include Blair or Bonner at all, with at least one of Parker and Ginobili on the floor at all times to handle the ball; none of the potential backup PGs are in the top 8. If it didn't screw up the starting rotation so much, I could see Green dropped too if he starts to crap the bed again.
This team has enough to make the playoffs without Ginger or Blair... Who cares if you win 50 instead of 60 regular season games? The alleged advantage gets neutered when Blair gets the shaft in the playoffs and Bonner s the bed...
It's been time to move on in that department for a while now...
I'd rather roll with Curry/Powell then Bonner/Blair.
If we could bring back a big that we think could help more with a package revolving around those two guys and a guy like Gary Neal I'd do it as well. Patty/De Colo will be enough to pick up what Neal leaves behind. We are so stacked.
blair is expendable now..
can have duncan paired with either splitter or diaw
diaw is the variance better then bonner/blair, who can spread the floor and play alongside any of the bigs on the team whether his starting or playin with the bigs of the bench
the emergence of curry or brown makes blair look like a scrub, both have their advantages and disadvantages, but not many holes in their game that can costs us against teams
Duncan won't see many minutes this season.
Tim and Manu can't play lots of minutes and still be effective. Especially if they take it easy during the season.
In the second preseason game, Pop played Diaw and Splitter off the bench together in the second half. Might have been a fluke but that combo worked pretty darn well. With Spitter's ability to roll to the basket, having a passer/facilitator like Diaw at power forward is extra beneficial. Add in Diaw's ability to shoot and Splitter would get a ton of space in that alignment.
You make some really good points but I'm still 50/50 about it. We'll just have to see what Pop goes with.
I'm not trying to brag but the season opener pretty much went how I expected if Blair wasn't going to start. If Diaw starts, it's either going to be Bonner or small ball next to Splitter. Pop is never going to go long stretches of time with Blair and Splitter together.
Honestly, I'm warming up to the idea of Jack and Kawhi splitting the backup power forward duties. Anything but Bonner at this point.
i would say anything but Blair at this point.
I'd much rather Blair than Bonner. That is not even in question for me.
If it means more Kawhi, even in backup PF minutes, that's a good thing. We don't really lose anything in rebounding with him there rather than Bonner, and the spacing is still fine.
I'd prefer Jack and Kawhi at small ball 4 over both if that is the question.
Agree 100%
Not necessarily the case. Look at the minute distribution on the '07 team.
Oh, you are trying to brag but you shouldn't.
Going from Blair not playing to "it's because Pop doesn't want to pair Blair with Splitter" is an as wild assumption as it can be.
Blair not playing is likely the result of Pop simply considering him as Spurs 5th best big.
Something to notice from this game is Pop going int he 4th quarter with the Splitter/Duncan combo for a couple of minutes. It's even more noticeable that Hornets weren't playing big with Anderson at the PF slot. Removing both Blair and Bonner from the rotation by a combination of small ball and some Duncan/Splitter pairing is the way to go for Spurs.
BTW, so much for Pop souring on Tiago...
Bump.
DeJuan Blair starting tonight in place of Boris Diaw.
Sean Elliott on the lineup change: "This is not a demotion for Boris Diaw. The Spurs are trying to balance out the lineup. If you remember years ago when Manu Ginobili left the starting lineup and went to the bench, this is almost the same thing. The Spurs like the combination of Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair to start off the ballgame. And then you have an experienced Boris Diaw playing alongside Tiago Splitter in that second unit. They're just trying to find a way to balance out the lineup and figure out a way all the bigs can get on the floor."
I really think this is going to be great for Splitter. Diaw is going to spoonfeed Splitter and that added spacing from Diaw's perimeter game will make Splitter even more deadly in pick-and-rolls. Blair will produce next to Duncan, while Duncan can get out of the paint and get back to the perimeter to conserve his body. Oh, and Bonner becomes the fifth big.
Personally, I'm hoping this sticks until either the Spurs acquire another big or the playoffs begin.
Interesting quote by Sean. I like the zero mention of Bonner being in the rotation. I hope that is the case.
Hopefully Blair just plays smart, but that's asking for a lot.
This is not gonna work on Tuesday night. Bynum got 30 boards on us last year. I like Diaw or Splitter to guard Pau.
The reason to like it is gets Bonner out of the rotation. At the same time I don't like the fact that it weakens the defense. Pop can't say he's serious about defense by making a move like this. I believe all the stats show our defense is a lot better than a year ago. Because our 10th best player can't play with Splitter Pop is going to screw up the lineups and weaken the defense. Makes perfect sense.Bump.
DeJuan Blair starting tonight in place of Boris Diaw.
Sean Elliott on the lineup change: "This is not a demotion for Boris Diaw. The Spurs are trying to balance out the lineup. If you remember years ago when Manu Ginobili left the starting lineup and went to the bench, this is almost the same thing. The Spurs like the combination of Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair to start off the ballgame. And then you have an experienced Boris Diaw playing alongside Tiago Splitter in that second unit. They're just trying to find a way to balance out the lineup and figure out a way all the bigs can get on the floor."
I really think this is going to be great for Splitter. Diaw is going to spoonfeed Splitter and that added spacing from Diaw's perimeter game will make Splitter even more deadly in pick-and-rolls. Blair will produce next to Duncan, while Duncan can get out of the paint and get back to the perimeter to conserve his body. Oh, and Bonner becomes the fifth big.
Personally, I'm hoping this sticks until either the Spurs acquire another big or the playoffs begin.
When I first read this post, I didn't warm to the idea at all and I preferred to simply keep the bigman rotation in the playoffs last year, with Blair being relegated to the fifth bigman role. But after reading it again today, I'm beginning to warm to the idea. The resurgence of our defense in the early part of the season thus far has been dependent on Duncan playing at an elite level, and conserving that for the playoffs will be integral. And I've been a long-time Bonner apologist, but it's become harder and harder to deny that he's worthless in the playoffs.
Hopefully we can keep this rotation to raise Blair's value and trade him in midseason along with Stephen Jackson for Josh Smith.
Blair might make a good junior high coach or motivational speaker, but he doesn't belong in the NBA.
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