Amen Thompson - 2023 NBA Draft Prospect

[barakz21]

I already had my mind made up that were very likely getting Miller, but that was before the NCAA tournament. Was there any top 3 pick who was highly touted in college but struggled in the tournament BUT turned out ok, career wise? I ask because as someone who doesn’t follow college ball, I admittedly know nothing about these kids.

[Chinook]

His floor is scary low, like out of the league in 2-3 years if he was just beating up on 15 YOs.

So I don't mean this as an attack or a gotcha, but do you think your views on drafting for ceiling have changed since 2020? You seemed completely willing to accept a low floor back then with a guy like Poke. Do you think Poke had a higher floor or ceiling than Thompson does now? Again, I don't have a dog in the fight, so I'm not saying he does or doesn't. But I feel like of all people who would advocate for taking a chance that you'd be up there.

I feel like a lot of posters are scared of messing this pick up. To me, if they mess it up, they'll get another high pick next year anyway. Some seem to believe that this is a rare event the Spurs have to get right. It probably is the start of a few high picks the team will get, and they don't have to hit on all of them. In my opinion, they just need to do the best they can and adjust to whatever happens.

[Dejounte]

So I don't mean this as an attack or a gotcha, but do you think your views on drafting for ceiling have changed since 2020? You seemed completely willing to accept a low floor back then with a guy like Poke. Do you think Poke had a higher floor or ceiling than Thompson does now? Again, I don't have a dog in the fight, so I'm not saying he does or doesn't. But I feel like of all people who would advocate for taking a chance that you'd be up there.

I feel like a lot of posters are scared of messing this pick up. To me, if they mess it up, they'll get another high pick next year anyway. Some seem to believe that this is a rare event the Spurs have to get right. It probably is the start of a few high picks the team will get, and they don't have to hit on all of them. In my opinion, they just need to do the best they can and adjust to whatever happens.

Seriously, I think the whole “I’d rather play it safe with xyz player than take a chance on abc player who I think has a low chance of succeeding anyway” is a guise for “i don’t like that player and the stats I cherry picked for him so I’m going to make up excuses why he wouldn’t be a good pick”.

[offset formation]

Seriously, I think the whole “I’d rather play it safe with xyz player than take a chance on abc player who I think has a low chance of succeeding anyway” is a guise for “i don’t like that player and the stats I cherry picked for him so I’m going to make up excuses why he wouldn’t be a good pick”.

Which player are you suggesting we take if we get #2?

[BacktoBasics]

I already had my mind made up that were very likely getting Miller, but that was before the NCAA tournament. Was there any top 3 pick who was highly touted in college but struggled in the tournament BUT turned out ok, career wise? I ask because as someone who doesn’t follow college ball, I admittedly know nothing about these kids.

I think we need to take that tourney with a grain of salt. He was under death threats, coming off an awful off the court situation compounded by being completely tone deaf over his warm up routine. He was injured and fighting through it. His teammates played awful... to be expected with all the distractions. I'm not making excuses about his off the court issues but better that happen now than in his prime like Morant.

The last game of the tourney he came out after halftime and played really good for those first 5 minutes. You could see he was trying to respond. He got his teammates involved and looked like a really great player in the making.

I think a fresh start in another city is exactly what he needs. I wasn't all that enamored with him early on but I see a really good player here. If anyone takes him after 4 they'll regret not taking him at 3... maybe even at 2.

[exstatic]

Yeah, that’s a fair take. If they don’t want anything to do with Miller (very possible) then it sort of puts Cam higher up as a possibility for us, going by your board. Cam has less risk of falling out of the league but concerning that he couldn’t get his team into the tournament, and seems to play with a style that doesn’t include much passing or team oriented play. I think of him as our pick with the third pick potentially and then go back to pondering a home run swing with Amen. To me it’s a challenging draft.

The last PF high lottery pick with a fractional asst/TO ratio was Patrick Williams, and he’s been a huge disappointment as a former #4 overall. It’s why Cam isn’t high up on my board.

[couchman]

Wemby and Scoot are the obvious 1,2.
After that I am in favor of swinging forupside, however I DON’T want Whitmore.
Today’s NBA requires that everyone can pass the ball adequately if you’re going to run a good offense.

[baseline bum]

I feel like a lot of posters are scared of messing this pick up. To me, if they mess it up, they'll get another high pick next year anyway. Some seem to believe that this is a rare event the Spurs have to get right. It probably is the start of a few high picks the team will get, and they don't have to hit on all of them. In my opinion, they just need to do the best they can and adjust to whatever happens.

I don't know why posters here seem to think this is just one off year as if this team tried they would have won 38 games and that they intentionally dropped to 22 wins only for that 14% chance at Wembanyama.

[Ariel]

Seriously, I think the whole “I’d rather play it safe with xyz player than take a chance on abc player who I think has a low chance of succeeding anyway” is a guise for “i don’t like that player and the stats I cherry picked for him so I’m going to make up excuses why he wouldn’t be a good pick”.

What would be an example of that? There may be a case here and there, but I don't think that's the gripe with any of the most talked about prospects here, the concerns are actually pretty objective and well do ented with the Thompsons, Scoot, Miller, Cam Whitmore, Anthony Black.

[Degoat]

Can Amen Thompson be an ultra athletic Lonzo Ball/Giddey?

[The Truth #6]

The last PF high lottery pick with a fractional asst/TO ratio was Patrick Williams, and he’s been a huge disappointment as a former #4 overall. It’s why Cam isn’t high up on my board.

Fair. What is your board?

[exstatic]

Fair. What is your board?

To be released after the combine. I’ll want to see the measurements and anthro.

[J_Paco]

I totally get hesitation towards Amen in the top 3. Though I’m leaning into it, I recognize it could be a disaster. So I’m curious for those who want to stay away from Amen and Scoot if we are at 2 or 3, then who is your choice? Meaning, I get he has red flags, and it’s easy to critique, but who is your pick then?

It's Victor, Scoot and either Ausar or Cam is third. Cam would be the perfect pick (reminds me of Jimmy Butler) 3rd overall, but he has defensive issues that give me pause.

I see him as more a 3 in the NBA and not a 4. He could be similar to young Kawhi in needing to work on his ballhandling & playmaking (defense is nowhere close, apparently) to become an all-star or elite - level player.

[The Truth #6]

It's Victor, Scoot and either Asur or Cam is third. Cam would be the perfect pick (reminds me of Jimmy Butler) 3rd overall, but he has defensive issues that give me pause.

I see him as more a 3 in the NBA and not a 4. He could be similar to young Kawhi in needing to work on his ballhandling & playmaking (defense is nowhere close, apparently) to become an all-star or elite - level player.

And you like Ausur over Amen because he is a better shooter strictly, or something else?

[Mr. Body]

The last PF high lottery pick with a fractional asst/TO ratio was Patrick Williams, and he’s been a huge disappointment as a former #4 overall. It’s why Cam isn’t high up on my board.

Chicago really took a big swing there. Man, looking at the 2020 draft, it was dog .

Yeah, that AST/TO ratio is nasty. He didn't even have great defensive stats, which Whitmore does, at least some.

[J_Paco]

And you like Ausur over Amen because he is a better shooter strictly, or something else?

I like him because he's the more "defensive-minded" of the twins and has tremendous upside on that end. The Spurs need a lot of help on that end, IMO, and a guy like him (if his defensive skills can translate) would be huge.

Now, the danger is that his rigid jumper (which isn't as God awful looking like Amen) doesn't improve and he becomes nothing more than another Justise Winslow, MKG or Greg Brown - type of player.

[heyheymymy]

I'm with J Paco, good call.

Not very interested in the twins but if you took one I'd almost prefer Ausar over Amen as I said here a few months ago.

Better shooting plus almost equal playmaking, plus stronger perimeter D, rebounding and steals imo.

Ausar would be a glue guy but sub star level which is so unattractive for such a top pick especially for SA who historically doesn't spend much time in range to pick so high. So it's a lot of work, tanking the whole season for lukewarm returns

[heyheymymy]

Also Ausar would slot better as a 2/3 which has more even roster distribution than piling Amen on top of Jones/Graham/Wesley even if you can maybe push Graham to the SG although if Jones departs and Blake fails then suppose Amen would stopgap pretty nicely in the guard corps

[heyheymymy]

And if you dump KJ and Doug, more likely imo than losing Jones/Wesley getting pushed out anytime soon, then Ausar likewise stop gaps the wings corps quite nicely as well

[J_Paco]

I'm with J Paco, good call.

Not very interested in the twins but if you took one I'd almost prefer Ausar over Amen as I said here a few months ago.

Better shooting plus almost equal playmaking, plus stronger perimeter D, rebounding and steals imo.

Ausar would be a glue guy but sub star level which is so unattractive for such a top pick especially for SA who historically doesn't spend much time in range to pick so high. So it's a lot of work, tanking the whole season for lukewarm returns

Right, Amen's ceiling is higher (maybe prime Tracy McGrady if he can somehow develop a jumper & vastly improves on defense) but Ausar seems like the less risky pick. Of course, that also means his ceiling is lower as a prospect (Andre Iguodala - type career).

I would stay away from both in the top 3 or 4, but outside of that range they might be worth the risk on roster devoid of uber-athletic wing players.

And if you draft either you do so knowing you'll need to be patient and will be picking in the top 3 - 7 range once again next year. Crazy that top 5 picks are "projects" but that is the scenario we are in.

[JPB]

So I don't mean this as an attack or a gotcha, but do you think your views on drafting for ceiling have changed since 2020? You seemed completely willing to accept a low floor back then with a guy like Poke. Do you think Poke had a higher floor or ceiling than Thompson does now? Again, I don't have a dog in the fight, so I'm not saying he does or doesn't. But I feel like of all people who would advocate for taking a chance that you'd be up there.

I feel like a lot of posters are scared of messing this pick up. To me, if they mess it up, they'll get another high pick next year anyway. Some seem to believe that this is a rare event the Spurs have to get right. It probably is the start of a few high picks the team will get, and they don't have to hit on all of them. In my opinion, they just need to do the best they can and adjust to whatever happens.

First, we don't know what pick exactly they'll get next year, since I really don't see Pop nor the players going for a similar year, but there's fair chances that'll be a lower pick. And missing on this one means wasting one brutal tanking year, while putting more pressure not to up the next one... All this mess for a guy that could be out of the league after 3 years?

I personnaly prefer watching every pick independently than relying on the total, not to lower the importance of every single one. You know that statiscally you'll get some misses so better trying to get something and hit every year.

[JPB]

Right, Amen's ceiling is higher (maybe prime Tracy McGrady if he can somehow develop a jumper & vastly improves on defense) but Ausar seems like the less risky pick. Of course, that also means his ceiling is lower as a prospect (Andre Iguodala - type career).

I would stay away from both in the top 3 or 4, but outside of that range they might be worth the risk on roster devoid of uber-athletic wing players.

And if you draft either you do so knowing you'll need to be patient and will be picking in the top 3 - 7 range once again next year. Crazy that top 5 picks are "projects" but that is the scenario we are in.

If Amen's ceiling was Tracy Mc Grady, that would somehow already show and no one would talk about potential bust. That's really fantasizing and wishful thinking at this point with Amen. And big IFs about things that are not there at all for the moment. Like he can't shoot and defend against teens, but if he could he would be great.

[ducks]

Pass
compe ion level weakeness
Spurs can not fix that big -

No need for for that weakness

[TD 21]

Can Amen Thompson be an ultra athletic Lonzo Ball/Giddey?

Although I doubt his 3 gets to the level of Ball's, they're good examples of "connector" type, complementary starters as opposed to centerpieces.

Wembanyama and Henderson are the only two obvious centerpieces I see. Of course, someone(s) is likely to unexpectedly emerge as such, as per usual.

It's Victor, Scoot and either Ausar or Cam is third. Cam would be the perfect pick (reminds me of Jimmy Butler) 3rd overall, but he has defensive issues that give me pause.

I see him as more a 3 in the NBA and not a 4. He could be similar to young Kawhi in needing to work on his ballhandling & playmaking (defense is nowhere close, apparently) to become an all-star or elite - level player.

I see Miles Bridges as the Whitmore comp. Combo forward, potentially a high end, versatile finisher and neutral or greater defender, but doesn't offer much in the way of shot creation.

Of course, the same could have been said about S bag and Butler a dozen years ago, but they're outliers for a reason.

[Chinook]

First, we don't know what pick exactly they'll get next year, since I really don't see Pop nor the players going for a similar year, but there's fair chances that'll be a lower pick. And missing on this one means wasting one brutal tanking year, while putting more pressure not to up the next one... All this mess for a guy that could be out of the league after 3 years?

I personnaly prefer watching every pick independently than relying on the total, not to lower the importance of every single one. You know that statiscally you'll get some misses so better trying to get something and hit every year.

I don't think this is really a rebuttal to what I was saying. We should want every pick to be good. No one was arguing otherwise but in terms of what is "riding" on this pick, it's not much. The Spurs aren't a good team -- not nearly as much of their bad season was their choice as some might say. Yes, if they change posture, they can threaten the play-in. But this is more than just having their guys healthy. With Houston signaling they're going top tanking, there's good reason to assume the Spurs will be the worst team in the West next year barring a major improvement.

My point is not that the Spurs should plan on picks busting because they'll get more. It's that the Spurs aren't good and that they didn't get this way through a one-time choice. They don't need to hit on this pick to save their franchise like they might've in a scenario where the Spurs were a decent vet team that managed to get a high pick through freak injuries. The team should draft the guy they like and not be too worried about whether the downside is the guy being a meh player or busting out entirely. The downside doesn't really matter right now. Only their realistic upside matters. Who care is Amen might not be in the league in four years while Miller will at least be a role-player? Both cases mean the Spurs are still going to tank. The Spurs are in the business of collecting talent right now -- not mitigating risk. That doesn't mean they need to try to draft guys like Sam and Poke who are years away from being playable but have like a 1/1000000 chance of being a unicorn or whatever. But it does mean trusting your ability to develop players and not just see them as investment portfolios.