Why would Kawhi stay here if Tim and Manu hang them up at season's end?

[Mel_13]

I was actually thinking also on who those teams could be. OKC is probably the team that I would 'fear' the most, if not for the owner being a cheapskate. I could be wrong on this (I'm sure Mel_13 will correct me), but they could offer Kiwi the max after next season, then resign KD through bird rights also to a max deal, correct?

Durant's cap hold will be more than 22M. RW and Ibaka will combine to make 30M. So 52M for three players. Extremely unlikely that they'll be a major player in the 2016 FA market unless KD goes somewhere else.

[SnakeBoy]

's gonna be good

[ElNono]

Durant's cap hold will be more than 22M. RW and Ibaka will combine to make 30M. So 52M for three players. Extremely unlikely that they'll be a major player in the 2016 FA market unless KD goes somewhere else.

Isn't the cap for that year projected at $81m now?

[DPG21920]

Echo what Mel said. That's not even considering Reggie Jackson too. Even if the cap goes to 70m+ they won't have cap space next year for a max deal (without gutting their roster down to no one but KD/WB/SI - which would be next to impossible to do considering they have guys with guaranteed deals next year outside of the big 3). Even if Kawhi signed a QO and waited until the year after next, OKC would still have the same issue because of Durants cap hold.

Plus, in the OKC scenario, we established that winning is important and they haven't proven they can win a le ; )

[ElNono]

Echo what Mel said. That's not even considering Reggie Jackson too. Even if the cap goes to 70m+ they won't have cap space next year for a max deal (without gutting their roster down to no one but KD/WB/SI - which would be next to impossible to do considering they have guys with guaranteed deals next year outside of the big 3). Even if Kawhi signed a QO and waited until the year after next, OKC would still have the same issue because of Durants cap hold.

Plus, in the OKC scenario, we established that winning is important and they haven't proven they can win a le ; )

Very true, tbh

[DPG21920]

Isn't the cap for that year projected at $81m now?

It could be, but that is more likely to be the luxury tax number IMO. But, right now the cap is estimated to be around 66M next year, with a chance to push into the 70M range.

[Mel_13]

Isn't the cap for that year projected at $81m now?

Only if there's some sort of 'smoothing'. 2016-17 is the first year of the new TV deal, so those revenues won't impact the salary cap until the summer of 2017 unless there is an agreement for smoothing.

[DPG21920]

Very good, thought out post. That's why you're one of the better posters here, tbh. Thanks.

I was actually thinking also on who those teams could be. OKC is probably the team that I would 'fear' the most, if not for the owner being a cheapskate. I could be wrong on this (I'm sure Mel_13 will correct me), but they could offer Kiwi the max after next season, then resign KD through bird rights also to a max deal, correct?

What a strange thing for your iPhone to autocorrect "best" to "one of the better".

[Mel_13]

While we're talking hypotheticals, Kawhi would have to abandon that whole "focal point" thing in order to play on a team with KD and RW.

[ElNono]

Only if there's some sort of 'smoothing'. 2016-17 is the first year of the new TV deal, so those revenues won't impact the salary cap until the summer of 2017 unless there is an agreement for smoothing.

thanks

[ElNono]

What a strange thing for your iPhone to autocorrect "best" to "one of the better".

I was using the Nexus 7 when I typed that... sorry...

[ElNono]

While we're talking hypotheticals, Kawhi would have to abandon that whole "focal point" thing in order to play on a team with KD and RW.

So far, that's the role he had here offensively, more or less... I do think they would be a lock to contend for a while if they get all those 3 guys together. The main thing OKC is lacking, IMO, is that elite perimeter defender, Kawhi would be amazing there.

Good thing there's little chance of happening, tbh

[DPG21920]

Spurs aren't guaranteed nearly anywhere close to the success they have had with Duncan/Pop/TP/Manu because that's pretty much impossible. Even for teams with deep pockets and built in advantages.

They key is who is more likely to have what's considered to be normal success and the Spurs have to be given the benefit of the doubt. It's going to likely be rough, but it's also exciting to see how PATFO do post Tim/Manu.

[Mel_13]

Only if there's some sort of 'smoothing'. 2016-17 is the first year of the new TV deal, so those revenues won't impact the salary cap until the summer of 2017 unless there is an agreement for smoothing.

Nope. That's wrong. The new deal will impact the 2016-17 cap. An 80M cap for that summer is a possible. Will depend on any smoothing as well as how the TV contract is structured (i.e., equal amounts over the length of the deal or increasing amounts from year to year).

[ElNono]

Personally, not looking forward to the post TD/Manu era, tbh... I know it's inevitable, but I think it's going to be incredibly rough, IMO.

[Mel_13]

So far, that's the role he had here offensively, more or less... I do think they would be a lock to contend for a while if they get all those 3 guys together. The main thing OKC is lacking, IMO, is that elite perimeter defender, Kawhi would be amazing there.

Good thing there's little chance of happening, tbh

Right, but the OP suggested he would want to be convinced that he would be the focal point of some tbd future team.

[ElNono]

Nope. That's wrong. The new deal will impact the 2016-17 cap. An 80M cap for that summer is a possible. Will depend on any smoothing as well as how the TV contract is structured (i.e., equal amounts over the length of the deal or increasing amounts from year to year).

IIRC, I read current projections at $65m for next season and $81m for the one afterwards. Thought nothing is set in stone until the actual figures come out.

[ElNono]

Right, but the OP suggested he would want to be convinced that he would be the focal point of some tbd future team.

I think the scenario changes if he's going to a sure-fire 'stacked' team (more or less what the Spurs have been the last couple seasons). If he's going to be basically the main centerpiece of a team (which IMO he would be by resigning with us), I would think getting more involved is something he would appreciate.

[Mel_13]

IIRC, I read current projections at $65m for next season and $81m for the one afterwards. Thought nothing is set in stone until the actual figures come out.

Yeah, I just went back and read a couple of the reliable articles from when the deal was announced.

Even so, OKC is an unlikely player. KD's cap hold would be much larger, the first year salary for a max player like Kawhi would be higher and they still have 9 other roster spots to fill. With an 80M cap, KD, RW, Ibaka, and a max player would account for well over 70M in salaries, likely close to 75M. Then Russ will get a huge raise in 2017.

[SnakeBoy]

Personally, not looking forward to the post TD/Manu era, tbh... I know it's inevitable, but I think it's going to be incredibly rough, IMO.

If Kawhi can, as Carlesimo recently said "solve the riddle of dribble penetration", and develop a softer shooting touch then we're looking at Jordan 2.0 and good times ahead. If not, we might have to learn to be happy with just making the playoffs for years or even decades.

[Mel_13]

I think the scenario changes if he's going to a sure-fire 'stacked' team (more or less what the Spurs have been the last couple seasons). If he's going to be basically the main centerpiece of a team (which IMO he would be by resigning with us), I would think getting more involved is something he would appreciate.

I get it. Subtle indeed.

[Mel_13]

Man, still 5 hours until gametime. Cold, rainy Friday in San Antonio...

[ElNono]

Yeah, I just went back and read a couple of the reliable articles from when the deal was announced.

Even so, OKC is an unlikely player. KD's cap hold would be much larger, the first year salary for a max player like Kawhi would be higher and they still have 9 other roster spots to fill. With an 80M cap, KD, RW, Ibaka, and a max player would account for well over 70M in salaries, likely close to 75M. Then Russ will get a huge raise in 2017.

Yeah, plus I still doubt ownership there is as committed... I wouldn't be surprised at all if KD walks either.

[ElNono]

Man, still 5 hours until gametime. Cold, rainy Friday in San Antonio...

Freezing here in NJ... hate the NE winter, tbh...

[ElNono]

If Kawhi can, as Carlesimo recently said "solve the riddle of dribble penetration", and develop a softer shooting touch then we're looking at Jordan 2.0 and good times ahead. If not, we might have to learn to be happy with just making the playoffs for years or even decades.

We can always look forward to some jersey retirement ceremonies too, tbh