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Tankathon breaks down exact pick odds.
The Spurs are most likely to pick at #6, at a 26% chance. Best just prepare for that eventuality.
What's crazy is that worst team has a full 47.9% chance of picking at #5.
Yeah the losses don't matter. With teams that suck, the wins column are what count because they are rarer and unusual events. Losses are expected. We have to make up five wins to catch up with CHA. A tough task but not impossible.
Tankathon breaks down exact pick odds.
The Spurs are most likely to pick at #6, at a 26% chance. Best just prepare for that eventuality.
What's crazy is that worst team has a full 47.9% chance of picking at #5.
fck tankathon. Spurs aint picking outta the top 5
It's possible but can't ignore that Charlotte currently has a 25.7% shot at 6th pick so still plenty of reason for optimism to stay no worse than 5th.
The Ringer did a mock draft with tankathon and both the pistons and rockets fell outside the top 5…. Spurs were #1 though lol
Lol, literally more than a quarter of the time the Spurs will pick sixth.
I think the "goal" this year was to get a bottom 3 record and they've pretty much done it. We can't control how many times Detroit or Houston win (which isn't much), however we can try to stay below Charlotte in the standings. Twenty wins or below should do the trick. Don't think Detroit of Houston get to twenty and Charlotte has already passed that mark. If the spurs reach the twenty win mark, at least it won't be viewed as the worst season ever. It will be tied with the season before Duncan joined the team, and just like then it was done to secure a better future.
One more time, it boils down to luck. We have the same odds as Houston and Detroit to get picks 1 - 3. Hopefully Houston or Detroit moves down a spot and we move up. but of course that can happen to any lottery team. Damn ping pong balls.
lol, fck that quarter
With current record, if Spurs can survive not getting pick 7 and 6, then things start to look way up that they land top 4. Would be horrible luck to miss pick 7 and 6, but land 5 lol. Once you clear pick 6 & 7, odds shoot wayyyy up you are in top 4.
But have to clear those two hurdles first obviously. Will be very nervous time come pick 7 and 6 announcements
You can say the same about Charlotte.
I know we want a top 2 pick, that goes without saying but I think the spurs talent assessment team can find the right guy with a pick between 4-6 too.
47.9% of the time, Detroit picks 5th.
You don't know that. Every draft has tiers. It's possible we look back at this one in a few years and the drop from impact player to JAG came at 5 and they ended up at 7 because they eked out a few late season wins.
exactly, in situations like this its that 1 win or less% points that can make all the difference
There are rarely tiers in the actual draft. Look at 2020. Vassell and Hali at 10 and 11, with some real crap up higher. If we are at 6 or 7, we’ll get someone good, because the Thompson Twins will likely go higher, and will be wasted picks. We wouldn’t be interested in Scoot, either.
Correct. I dont “know” that. Could be wrong looking back. But as things stand today, there doesnt seem to be “much” difference in that tier. But things change with the benefits of time. Unless you have some serious ranking gaps and tiers of your own that you think picks 6 & 7 are a major drop off from pick 5? What’s your rankings/tiers there?
Wait, you think SA would not be interested in Scoot? Or Miller? I mean….Im not so sure my man
Scoot seems like a bust waiting to happen. Spur are also rarely interested in heliocentric guards. When they’re not the focus of the play, it’s like going 4 on 5 on offense.
Despite Henderson clearly not being their type, even the Spurs couldn't be ignorant and close-minded enough to pass on him.
It was a hypothetical. The point was, I realize there's not much more they can be doing to lose, but to act like winning doesn't really matter at this point is foolish. It could easily come back to haunt them.
Haliburton, JDubs both picked at 12th. Haliburton is already an AS, and JDubs seems destined to be one. Damn I can see Harden in JDubs minus the craziness, big guard who just knows how to play. My point, outside of top 2, I think the Spurs can find that player in 3-7.
I meant it in that way, so the point stands. There's no team more in need of an offensive centerpiece and marketable player and he's both. There's also a long history of his archetype (Francis, Davis, Rose, Westbrook, Wall, Fox, Morant) more or less panning out too.
You'll never be faulted as a front office for taking the consensus option high in a draft, but you will be if you try to get cute by trading down to select your type and pick up an additional asset which combined are unlikely to have the same value long term.
No to these guys. That archtype also has a huge injury flameout, early wash/career cliff history. Rose was great, injured out, and is now barely competent. Wall is washed at 32, and has been for a couple of years. Morant seems to be trending that way, missing 25 games last year. Francis career was over after 9 seasons. The last two of those totaled 54 games.
Scoot also isn't the athlete that some of these guys are, B+ at best, maybe just a solid B. If you're small, there are really only three paths to s om: ungodly court vision, jump out of the gym hops, or knockdown 3 point shooting. He has none of them.
Spurs also don't care about picking the high mock guys so they won't be faulted. I also think that's not a true statement. GS is getting roasted over Wiseman. Philly with Fultz. Cleveland with Anthony Bennett. The list goes on.
Always got to be intentionally obtuse. They're not "Spurs material" (good luck getting a superstar/star who is), I'm not a fan of most and if I had my druthers, that would be the last archetype I'd pick to build around, but despite how poorly they age, all reached at least All-Star caliber, while some went all the way up to MVP caliber.
I meant with high picks, that absolutely factors in. The majority at least understand or it's easier to sell when you go consensus and it blows up in your face vs reaching for someone considered in a lower tier because of "culture".
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