Spurs' future draft picks

[AFBlue]

Suppose a guy comes to you with a proposition bet: He wants you to bet several million dollars on a bet that the odds say will lose 4-1.

Are you a player on this bet? Even if you win occasionally, the odds are with the house and eventually you'll lose. Las Vegas is built on these type of odds bet by suckers.

Or do you make a bet on a proposition bet that you cannot lose (pick-a-Euro) because you don't have to put up ANY money at all. If you guess right, you win, and if you guess wrong, you don't lose so you win either way.

See your point, but this is not past years where the Spurs have the luxury of drafting "projects" and leaving them overseas. The Spurs have legitimate needs for next year and certainly the following year. It is a calculated risk to take players that you have to pay and put on the roster right away, but it's one that the Spurs will likely have to make with at least one, if not more, of their draft picks.

[Mr. Body]

Not quite the right scenario, as PHAT suggests. It's not a idler's bet. It's a bet made on capital needed to keep your company running the very best level it can. It is humorous to keep insisting the Spurs will draft foreign and stash, because they always have before and their insistence has begun verging on the farcical. But the past does not always predict future behavior and the situation has changed so fundamentally that the Spurs cannot afford to not place at least one rookie on the team this year.

[MoSpur]

Well, according to draft express Al Thornton will probably go somewhere around #15. I wonder if the Spurs would try to move up and try to snag someone like him. I like him as the perfect understudy for Bruce Bowen.

[Mr. Body]

If they move up, I think they'd be after Corey Brewer, Jeff Green, or Thaddeus Young first (if he goes in) before Al Thornton. Two first two have more polish and Young just has too much upside.

[MoSpur]

I like Thorntons size better. The guy to me seems like he'd do a better job guarding the bigger guys like Dirk. He also has the quickness to guard the more athletic type like Howard and Marion. Brewer is good, but I don't like the fact he's only around 190 lbs.

[Bruno]

Moving up in the draft isn't that easy and you had to give a lot of things to move up from 28 to 15.
In 05, Portland has traded the 27th pick and the 35th pick to get the 22nd pick.

[Mr. Body]

I expect the Spurs will have to do something similar:

#28+#35 for #22
or
#28+Scola for #22

The further from the lottery you get the more exponentially devalued the picks become. If Thaddeus Young comes out, it helps push another SF further down.

I'd much rather have Jeff Green/Corey Brewer/crosses fingers (#22) than Nick Fazekas (#28) + Bobby Brown (#35).

[mardigan]

Or they could just stay put and get Jared Dudley fro BC, he does everything well except run fast

[Mr. Body]

Jared Dudley has all of Fabricio Oberto's athleticism.

[AFBlue]

Or they could just stay put and get Jared Dudley fro BC, he does everything well except run fast

Dudley doesn't have the athleticism you would like to see, but this kid is all guts and heart. I think there's a realistic chance he could slip because his workouts will probably be poor, but he's a guy that could step in sooner than most other prospective long 3/small ball 4 types.

[mardigan]

Dudley doesn't have the athleticism you would like to see, but this kid is all guts and heart. I think there's a realistic chance he could slip because his workouts will probably be poor, but he's a guy that could step in sooner than most other prospective long 3/small ball 4 types.

What do you think of Brendan Rush? The mocks I have seen have him and Fazekas right around where we are probably going to be drafting. I really like Rush, he could be very good for us. As far as Dudley, I love the kids heart, and he is a team player. He shoots well, boards well and passes well. Maybe he doesnt have the athletic ability of a Thornton, but for some reason he just seems like a Spurs type player. Senior, great teamate, great at ude, great work ethic

[Mr. Body]

fairly unathletic and smart DOES sound like a Spurs-type player

i'm not sure what they'd do with an Al Thornton type. make him play with big ankle weights or so.

[AFBlue]

What do you think of Brendan Rush? The mocks I have seen have him and Fazekas right around where we are probably going to be drafting. I really like Rush, he could be very good for us. As far as Dudley, I love the kids heart, and he is a team player. He shoots well, boards well and passes well. Maybe he doesnt have the athletic ability of a Thornton, but for some reason he just seems like a Spurs type player. Senior, great teamate, great at ude, great work ethic

I don't think Rudy Fernandez, Nick Fazekas, or Brandon Rush necessarily fit a "need" for the Spurs, but if Green/Thornton/etc. are off the board at the point the Spurs draft, I have to think they should take the best players available. Fernandez is a great athlete and lights-out shooter, Fazekas has the all-around offensive game to be a productive NBA player for a long time, and Rush has the right blend of ability & unselfishness to meld right in to a championship-calibur team. I like all three of them and wouldn't be dissapointed if we got one or even two of them.

On Dudley, I totally agree about him fitting the Spurs image. I think if he fell to the latter part of the second round, it would be good to take a flyer on him.

[AFBlue]

fairly unathletic and smart DOES sound like a Spurs-type player

i'm not sure what they'd do with an Al Thornton type. make him play with big ankle weights or so.

I'm sure they'll bench James White every time he puts the ball on the floor. They'll say "Don't you know you're the next Bruce Bowen! Bowen don't drive to the basket! Bowen plays D and shoots from the corner...practice that!"

[mardigan]

What do you guys think of Tucker? He is VERY undersized for the position, do you think he will be ok in the pros? Would he fit a Bowen type need?

[Mr. Body]

Not a Bowen-need, I don't think, but he knows how to play and could be an excellent pro. I'll agree with PHAT - if we can't trade up and grab our SF (Green, Brewer, etc.), then take BPA = Best Player Available. Could be Tucker.

[mardigan]

Do you know anything about the Italian sg Marco Belinelli? I have heard and read a lot of good things about him, and he is still young, what do you think about him Body?

[Mr. Body]

I don't know much. Honestly, as little as I know, I imagine him to be a better Gordan Giricek. A gunner. I don't know if he can do much else, maybe he can.

[AFBlue]

What do you guys think of Tucker? He is VERY undersized for the position, do you think he will be ok in the pros? Would he fit a Bowen type need?

Tucker's athleticism and reliance on slashing/inside game reminds me of Desmond Mason very much. Of course, you can teach a jumpshot and it's not like he's horrible from long-range. It wouldn't shock me if Tucker turned out to be a Desmond Mason type, but it also wouldn't shock me if he turned out to be a Josh Howard type.

[AFBlue]

Do you know anything about the Italian sg Marco Belinelli? I have heard and read a lot of good things about him, and he is still young, what do you think about him Body?

I know you didn't ask me, but I'm mystified by this kid. Most mock drafts have him going ahead of Rudy Fernandez despite Rudy vastly outplaying Marco in the Euroleague this year. Marco is a bit younger and bigger than Rudy, but they have very similar games. Still, everything I've seen has him going ahead of Rudy....must be something there I don't see.

[mardigan]

I don't know much. Honestly, as little as I know, I imagine him to be a better Gordan Giricek. A gunner. I don't know if he can do much else, maybe he can.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyPYO0L6_6U
I found this video of him, http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/prof...belinelli.html
and this is from nbadraft.net. He projects around our pick, looks pretty good

[mardigan]

I know you didn't ask me, but I'm mystified by this kid. Most mock drafts have him going ahead of Rudy Fernandez despite Rudy vastly outplaying Marco in the Euroleague this year. Marco is a bit younger and bigger than Rudy, but they have very similar games. Still, everything I've seen has him going ahead of Rudy....must be something there I don't see.

Your imput is always appreciated Tony. Here he is vs Slovenia, kid looks sick and he is only 20
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2r2WueJDD7c

[AFBlue]

Your imput is always appreciated Tony. Here he is vs Slovenia, kid looks sick
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2r2WueJDD7c

Thanks...Have to check it when I get home. Computer Nazis don't like the YouTube.

[mardigan]

Marco Belinelli - Current Team: Climamio Bologna, International
Physicals:
H: 6' 5"
W: 192 lbs
Bday: 3/25/1986
(20 Years Old)
Positions:
Current: SG
NBA: SG
Possible: PG/SG
Rankings:
Round: 1 Pick: 26 in 2007 Mock Draft
Rank 1 in International '86

Comparisons:
Best Case: Young Brent Barry
Worst Case: Jiri Welsch
Misc:
High School:
Hometown: San Giovanni, Persiceto, Italy
Earliest Draft Class: 2005
Profile Written By: Carlo Sandrinelli
Last Updated: 2/8/2006



Main Profile | Player Blog | Related Articles | Watch This Player
Strengths
Belinelli's physical tools are very good, especially at the European level. At 6-5 he has decent size for an NBA shooting guard, especially considering his athleticism and long arms which allow him to play bigger than his height. His overall bulk has improved over the past few years, as now both his upper and lower body strength are more solid than they were a couple of years ago. He looks like he’ll be able to add some more pounds too. Belinelli's athleticism is excellent for Europe and would be considered good even in the NBA, as he runs the floor well, has good overall speed and quickness and is an explosive leaper.

Offensively, Belinelli already has many of the skills required to play shooting guard in the NBA. He's a solid ball-handler who can dribble with either hand, usually playing under control, and is able to go right or left equally well. His passing ability is decent, as he shows no selfishness and seems to have good court vision. A couple of years ago he was projected as a PG, and although he's developed quite a bit more towards the shooting guard position, he can handle spot minutes at the point when needed.

Belinelli's biggest asset on the offensive end, especially as far as the NBA is concerned is definitely his outside shot. Every facet of it has improved dramatically over the past two years. He specifically worked on this part of his game and has become more and more consistent. He's especially good as a set shooter thanks to his quick release, compensating for the fact that his feet barely leave the ground (a la Brent Barry). He has amazing accuracy and range, out to well beyond the NBA 3-point line. When trying a jumper off the dribble he uses his athleticism to elevate and shoot over the defender, often going for a fade-away jumpshot. He moves well without the ball, and his shot selection is decent; not being afraid to shoot when opportunity strikes or his team needs him to, but also not forcing up too many shots.

Defensively, Belinelli is much more solid than many of the other young European prospects. In fact, in the past two seasons he was primarily used as a defensive specialist by his coach, as he can effectively guard multiple positions in Europe. He has good footwork and lateral quickness, which along with his length and quick hands in the passing lanes make him a great asset in pressure defense situations. He usually guards the opponents' best backcourt player. Climamio plays both man to man and zone, and his effectiveness is quite the same.

Generally, for a guy who's not even 20 years old, he shows good maturity when he's on the court, being known as a coachable player with a good work ethic. Climamio's coach Jasmin Repesa is known for his ability to develop young players, and was not afraid to give him meaningful minutes ever since Belinelli was 17 years old.

He already showed that he's a clutch player, as he's not afraid of taking big shots in the crucial moments, being a factor in his team's triumph in the past Italian League playoff Finals. The experience he has garnered playing at the highest level of compe ion to be found outside of the NBA is something that must be considered a huge plus; as Belinelli more than holds his own in the very tough Euroleague and Italian league.


Weaknesses
Even if Belinelli's body has vastly improved over the past few years, he will still need to add some bulk to play in the NBA. Particularly, he needs some more upper body strength.

Offensively, right now the main concern about him is his slashing ability. Although he theoretically has all the tools to be a great slasher (at the European level at least), being quick with a nice first step, possessing good ball-handling skills and improved body strength, he prefers to rely almost strictly on his perimeter shot instead of mixing up his game by taking his opponent off the dribble and going strong to the hoop. He seems to rely too much on his jumper, and does not get to the free throw nearly as much as he could considering his athletic gifts. He could use some improvements in his shot too, as he sometimes tends to unnecessarily go off balance when shooting off the dribble or off screens.

Even though his ball handling and passing skills look decent, right now they don't seem to be enough for him to consistently play the point as he was projected earlier in his career, especially in the NBA. He doesn't protect the ball well enough and still has difficulties against full court pressure. Plus, it seems that this project has been momentarily dropped, as his team is developing him primarily as a shooting guard.

Defensively, he's good but probably won’t be able to guard NBA point guards, because he already suffers when a quicker opponent takes him off the dribble. His defense on pick & rolls could use some improvement as well.

Although he generally puts in a good effort, sometimes he seems to lose a bit of focus, either committing foolish fouls, trying a spectacular pass over a simple one, or being a little late rotating on defense. However, these things are not uncommon for a 20 year old player competing with grown men in one of the most compe ive leagues in the world outside the NBA.

Compe ion
Belinelli is one of the most highly regarded Italian prospects in quite some time, ever since he was a kid playing in Virtus Bologna’s junior teams. He made his first team debut with them in 2002 before signing a 5 year contract with city rivals For udo after the bankruptcy of Virtus in the summer of 2003.

In the 2003-04 campaign, his role on the team that reached the Euroleague finals (losing against Maccabi) was marginal, but he still managed to play more than 10 mpg and had some nice games every now and then.

In 2004-05, he became one of the main rotation players off the bench on the team, being used by coach Repesa mostly a defensive specialist. Climamio did not qualify for the top 16 in the Euroleague, but eventually won the Italian League. Belinelli, after a mid-season slump, played great in the playoffs, taking advantage of Milos Vujanic's serious injury that gave him some extra minutes, and ended up being one of the crucial players in the Finals against Milano.

With that said, his breakout season has undoubtedly been the current one. This year, along with Kiwane Garris, Belinelli averages more minutes than anyone in Climamio, and has been consistent enough to become one of the team's best scorers and one of the best shooters in Europe. In the Italian League, he's averaging 11.3 ppg, shooting 44% from beyond the arc on almost 6 attempted 3-pointers in 26 minutes per game.

In the Euroleague, his stats are slightly better: in 27 mpg, he's averaging 13.9 points, shooting 46% for three, and has recorded some excellent outings even against top compe ion. He again suffered from a bit of mid-season slump, but he seems to be coming out of it lately.

Belinelli has played in many international youth championships with Italy, always being the leader on the team and one of the best scorers in the tournaments. It's very likely that Carlo Recalcati will call him up to make his debut in the senior national team in the 2006 World Championships in Japan.

Outlook
It’s not clear whether Belinelli is going to declare for the 2006 draft. His buyout situation is not the most transparent; in fact, his current contract probably doesn't even have a buyout clause.

Right now, all that is sure is that he's under contract until 2008 with For udo, and he's more than once stated that he wants to come to the NBA as an established player who is ready to contribute. So even if he does declare in 2006 or 2007, it's possible that the team that drafts him might have to wait to bring him over until his contract with Climamio expires, unless an agreement between his team and Italian agent (who is also his brother) can be reached. If he does declare this year and decides to pull out, he will either have to wait until he's automatically eligible in 2008 or enter in 2007 and not have the option to withdraw because of the new rules in the NBA collective bargaining agreement. This makes his decision this May a little bit tougher.

Whenever he enters the draft, he has obvious first round or even top-20 potential, even though NBA teams aren't very high on European guards lately and the ambiguity around his buyout (or lack thereof) could hurt his chances.

Facts
He earned MVP honors at the Italian Super Cup, the first official trophy of the 2005-06 season.

His favorite players are Manu Ginobili (who was a teammate of his in the 2001-02 season), and Kobe Bryant.







© 2007 DraftExpress LLC. All rights reserved.



The more I see and read about this kid he is almost reminds me of Manu, but 10 years younger

[Mr. Body]

Anybody know how he is on defense? Comments under the video say he's not very good there. Crazy fadeaways, though.