Seriously confused by this response, I responded to a specific hypothetical, why change the hypothetical?
I don't like Trae, I didn't want any part of Trae in the off-season, I'd take Fox over Trae for the same value, and I feel confident we got Fox for much cheaper than we could have gotten Trae.
Trae + Fox means CP3 is gone, and likely crushes Castle PG development. But none of that is relevant to the hypothetical I answered.
My response was specifally to a poster who said he wouldn't trade Trae for the '25 1st.
You just made my point, Trae is worth more than that '25. Yet you somehow completely missed the clearly articulated point that you trade for value.
If you can get Trae for '25 1st, you do that and flip him.
Last edited by Arguendo; 02-06-2025 at 08:56 PM.
Yeah Hunter has been balling this year so to trade him probably will impact teams flow and has to impact team morale especially after 9 losses. I can see Trae getting his offensive numbers but he is going to probably almost totally give up on defense
I think the the realities of the new CBA and salary cap are being awakened to around the league and boosting the value of first round picks for salary cap management. Last season people were throwing them around like garbage, though those were usually non lotto or fake FRPs like our CHA.
Edit: and the grim realities of paying max salaries that are incoming.
If they could have turned Trae into another All Star or a pick haul, they would have done it already. They’re been shopping him for 18-20 months. Now,returns on trades are lower than in recent years. ATL has shown that they are not willing to pay the basic luxury tax, let alone hit either of the aprons. They’ve had that stance for the last few seasons, offloading players right and left. Trae has to know if he wants to win, he has to leave. He’s on the back half of his 20s. They won’t spend to put players around him, and we have two of their next 3 picks, and a swap option on the middle one. He will be 29 before they have a clean pick of their own. One of two things will happen this summer. He will either sign the Max extension, dooming himself to a losing career, or he will refuse, and put them in a position to have to trade him. I’m thinking it will be the latter.
He’s not super max eligible. You need to make an all NBA team the season you are extension eligible or both of the last 2 years,be DPOY, or win the MVP. Those all seem extremely unlikely for a player who couldn’t get selected as an All Star reserve. You’re bad at this.
https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/12...max-extensions
Last edited by exstatic; 02-06-2025 at 06:02 PM.
Okay. My answer is also yes then.
I'd also take any other Top 30 player offered to us for a single FRP.
Off topic, but who would you guys rate as the top 5 two way players in the league?
I answered the hypothetical. I added additional context because I don't think the hypothetical is very realistic (though who knows these days) and offered an additional hypothetical. Jus having a conversation. That' show conversations work, right?
My apologies - I did quote reply to you but I wasn't really replying to you - just to the conversation. I don't think the hypothetical is valid, because it lacks context. I was providing more context to why the hypothetical isn't really valid.I don't like Trae, I didn't want any part of Trae in the off-season, I'd take Fox over Trae for the same value, and I feel confident we got Fox for much cheaper than we could have gotten Trae.
Trae + Fox means CP3 is gone, and likely crushes Castle PG development. But none of that is relevant to the hypothetical I answered.
My response was specifally to Mugen who said he wouldn't trade Trae for the '25 1st.
You just made my point, Trae is worth more than that '25. Yet you somehow completely missed the clearly articulated point that you trade for value.
If you can get Trae for '25 1st, you do that and flip him.
But if we just want yes or no answers to questions (which would make this website a lot more boring), then yes I would trade our FRP for Trae Young.
Mostly agree with your first paragraph, but your making a lot of assumptions as to what they turned down and how they valued him to their franchise, a franchise that is simply happy to make the playoffs.
They've built a very solid team around him that covers for his D, they are one piece away from being a perirenal Eastern Playoff team assuming health, they were Top6 when Johnson got hurt.
Contender, no, but a yearly PO team, yes. That has significant impact on the value of the swap and '27.
I stand corrected on the super max, I thought it was 2 All-NBAs and thought he had 2 already, I was wrong on both. I'd say he still has a near 50/50 chance to make it next year, but whatever. I was wrong. I can admit to being wrong and appreciate corrections.
You didn't respond to a single one of my points in the quoted post. Luka was not traded for a single first, the HOFer he was traded for somehow only came with 1 first and somehow Nico still has a job. Butler is a terrible comp, Fox is a good comp.
I'm not emotionally invested in this, not trading Hawks '25 for Trae is refusing a godfather other. The only reason to refuse it is emotional investment or otherwise being irrational.
I enjoy rational discussions, trying to figure out who is capable and who is not worth the time.
No. With the Fox trade the door on Trae is permanently shut. He already proved he can't play with another ball dominant scoring guard (Dejounte).
Oh for sure and agree that hypothetical was wildly unrealistic, apology not necessary.
I've lurked, little experience engaging on message boards, and didn't pay attention to names over the yrs. I like rational conversations with knowledgeable fans. When I saw the poster saying he wouldn't do that trade I wanted to understand his reasoning, see if he was/could be rational.
Hawks '25 for Trae is a no brainer simply for value, only reason to refuse is being irrational. Its an unrealistically lopsided trade.
Anyways, I didn't mean to derail a more interesting convo/celebration.
Back to the convo "Then the question becomes, should the Spurs give up what Trae's real value is for Trae? And the answer is no." Absolutely no, unless your getting insane value, why would you want Trae on this team. Bad fit, duplicative, kills his value, likely hurts Castle's future, etc
And back to thread topic, this is playing out almost best case for Spurs. Hawks got worse today, are incentivized to play for at least bottom 12, bottom 6-7 pick/lottery odd are in play, and its easy to imagine Trae feeling demoralized and asking out ASAP after today. '25, '26, and '27 all probably got (a lot) more valuable.
Go Blazers and Get well soon Brandon Ingram.
Last edited by Arguendo; 02-06-2025 at 08:57 PM.
For what it’s worth, Hawks fans are despondent about the Hunter trade; one said something to the effect of ‘leave it to the Hawks to tank when they don’t own their own pick.’
https://www.hawksquawk.net/topic/439...eandre-hunter/
hunter had largely been a disappointment but was their third best player this year after Trae and Jalen Johnson
He was their 2nd leading scorer this year (slightly ahead of johnson) and one of their top defenders
I can think of scenarios where it would still be a no brainer, but a no-brainer no.
1) Pre-lottery, ATL's seeding has dipped to deliver strong Top-4 odds. I wouldn't trade the pick straight up for Trae at that point, I'd rather just see where the ping pong balls land.
2) Post-lottery, ATL's pick ends up in the Top-4. I am not trading Flagg for Trae in any cir stance, and if it is somewhere in the 2-4 range, I'm not sure I do that trade either (at a minimum, I'm seeing if I can get someone who fits better, like my guy TMIII).
If it's only a 13.9% chance at the Top 4 and a 3% chance at #1 (like it is today), then I probably do that trade straight up with the intent on flipping Trae. I'm not sure where my cut off is for just seeing where the ping pong balls bounce instead, but honestly it's not that much higher than where it is right now. Atlanta is only 2 losses ahead of the #7 lottery seed (32% of top 4, 7% of #1)... I might be willing to roll the dice, and I'll give my rationale.
Basically, if you are getting Trae (and we are assuming that ATL did a Nico Harrison and ONLY called us) and looking to flip him - who is going to be interested? Probably a winning team. Unless it's HOU offering PHX picks, I'm going to get picks that I would value far less valuable than the #7 lottery seed in this draft based on their expected value. Yes, they could end up better... but in all likelihood they probably won't - even if we assume natural variance of that pick. I'd rather have the #7 lotto seed than multiple non-lotto picks. I actually don't rate non-lotto picks very highly at all for the Spurs, at least until we prove we can scout better.
Yeah, Hunter is honestly the kind of player who would be really nice for our starting SF role. He must be completely off PATFO's radar in terms of guys they like (probable) or the Hawks flat out refuse to deal with us (also probable), as I think we could have beat that CLE package if we wanted.
we could have if we wanted, im not sure we would have wanted to. it would basically have been keldon + a pick package, as keldon/hunter have similar contracts. levert has more value than keldon, and they got 2 swaps and 3 second rounders. hawks probably woulda insisted on undoing their swap at least.
youd also be buying high on a guy who has been historically mid. but yes, this year's version of hunter would be nice to have
Also... lots of talk about a resetting of the trade market... despite my feelings about Vassell I would have previously thought he was at least worth a FRP... I'm not so sure anymore. Hunter is a better (but older) player on a pretty similar contract (but fewer years). The Hunter return might be about what we could expect if we traded Dev.
I looked up Vassell and Hunter's DARKO progressions, and they are practically the same player
Hopefully Vassell can also have Hunter's uptick
Fair enough, I'd contemplated any of these not-gonna-happen scenarios as a flip of Trae and as there's functionally 0 chance NOLA/Uta/Wash/Wiz possibly win enough games to pass ATL, all 4 are hard tanking, none can get the 15+ wins itll take to pass ATL if ATL finishes 3-28 which also won't happen.
So Top-4 odds not possible and I'd still trade the #3 or worse straight up of Trae, maybe not the Flagg or Bailey. I included that in my prior post, but deleted cuz it doesn't matter.
Worst case scenario here, Trae is torching everyone else's bench with our current team. Even if he's a terrible fit, Fox/Trae/Wemby + current team may contend next yr and in '27, is better the next two yrs than anything besides Bailey or Flagg.
ATL would be very bad getting only a top 3 pick for Trae, we'd have another great lottery shot in '26 and prolly '27. Then you could almost certainly trade Fox or Trae for some assets, maybe a lot. Getting Trae for the '25 1st also significantly raises the floor of the '26 and '27 picks, it guts the engine of their team. Trae and Fox also provided great injury insurance (but obvi at a $ price tag that's not worth it).
Regardless, this was the type of insight into peoples valuation I was hoping to get, a reasoned response instead of a no.
Last edited by Arguendo; 02-06-2025 at 08:58 PM.
Yeah the resetting of trade values and realization of new CBA ramifications will be very interesting. Think that'll be much clearer post draft.
Fox still got a pretty good package, at least as far as the headline goes and many of these mega-pick trades include a lot of expected low value firsts.
But the Bulls return to unload Lavine's K is pretty telling. Those 2nd Apron teams (like Phx and Min) may shock people with how they sell off assets when the time comes.
Top 4 isn’t determined by final finish position. It’s determined by the draft lottery. Every year since 2019 when the current odds were set, at least one that finished in that group of 4 got booted by teams jumping in, and on a couple of occasions, two or three teams of the four got booted. It’s not all all impossible to get a top 4 pick from ATL. If they just drop to #8, very possible with the hard charging Portland squad and the surprising Toronto push, that gives us a 1/4 chance for top 4. One more spot if Embiid is truly back ups that to 1/3.
Top 4 is determined by lottery, Top 4 odds are determined by standings.
I'm super hopeful Ingram gets back ASAP. He's gonna need to play and play well to get his max (feel bad for whatever teams inks that deal). Toronto could really make a play to pass ATL with a motivated BI and Trae focused on not getting hurt.
Bucks @ Hawks today, Giannis is questionable
Raptors @ OKC...
Need Giannis to play tonight but I feel like they'll prob rest him given the opposition.
I can se the Sixers and Blazzers pass the Hawks. The Raptors got Ingram but are far behind. The Bulls will tank. The Nets are probably too far behind too. So that gives number 8 from the bottom with 26% for a top4 pick and 6% for the top1. Hopefully we get lucky
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
