Spurs' future draft picks

[mardigan]

Well, I guess its a risky shot to take, but there is something about this kid I really like

[Mr. Body]

He has a slow shot and is a 5th year senior, which is why he's ranked as a 2nd rounder, DX says. I'd certainly take a look at him and he may impress in the pre-draft camps. And, again, Vanderbilt's first couple rounds don't look terribly tough, so could get some exposure. It does say he's a pretty good defender.

This goes to show more than anything that a good prospect should be available with the Milwaukee pick. The Spurs, if they chose, could easily have two pretty good rookies on their roster next year (depends, of course, on whether Butler/White are still around). It also means coupling the 1st+Milwaukee isn't an absolute no-gainer this year in a deep draft.

[AFBlue]

I don't know if he's ready to contribute. I don't know if any of these guys are ready to contribute. I think the Spurs should look for a guy that might be ready to give "something" this upcoming year, but really look to take the spot in 2008, because I'm not sure "that guy" is there when the Spurs draft and they do in fact have Bowen/Finley (most likely) for next season.

Keep in mind, I'm not saying the Spurs should draft no help, but a guy like McGuire or Rush or Byars or whoever might be the best option at the bottom of the first, top of the second.

[AFBlue]

The enormous gap between where Byars is rated by certain draft boards is another reason to think there might be some quality players left when the Spurs draft. If you think GMs all have the same thoughts about what players have certain value, you're wrong. Sure there are consensus top 5s and top 10s, maybe even lottery guys, but even those surefire lottery picks stumble on draft day (Danny Granger, Gerald Green).

I guess I'm saying that the Spurs have a legit shot at all of these guys (except for maybe Green, Thornton). But that also means that you're value assesment might be CLEARLY different from how the Spurs FO values each player. It'll be interesting to see how the Spurs FO drafts this off-season with increased exposure to the College scene.

[Mr. Body]

Guys like Brewer and Green will probably be lottery picks. I'm sure Green will be -- I project them to go deep. Florida probably will, too, but maybe he'll expose himself in some way -- teams bizarrely go for mystery more than known quan ies sometimes.

Regardless, the Spurs should be in position to claim a good young bench player to come off the bench next year. Who, incidentally, I think will be better already than James White (where in the world would James White be in this draft?). Plus, I think a good senior point guard could be had in the second round. Zabian Dowdell is projected later in the 2nd, after all.

Who knows. We have a roster crunch -- too many mediocre and aging players. Some magic could happen. Trading up still has to be a priority.

[AFBlue]

(where in the world would James White be in this draft?).

This is a great question. If talk about Alando Tucker has him falling all the way to the Spurs and he has a similar skill set with much further advanced scoring ability...

I don't know. I'd see a guy like White falling until the middle of the second round. As good as he can be, he never put it together during college and has only one offensive weapon...the dunk. Tucker has the inside game to go with his athleticism.

[Mr. Body]

White had 'potential' going for him, or in Hubie-speak 'upside potential' (the potential to have upside). He is tremendously weak but can soar from the air when nobody is around. Never dunks in traffic. He has decent skills, and to be fair, he's a decent shooter, but this look like a draft with a mass of decent-but-not-excellent SF prospects.

Last year we had Rodney Carney, Ronnie Brewer, Thabo Sefolosha (if he's a SF, not a SG), and then a drop to Shawne Williams, then another drop to James White. I cannot express how ty a draft last year was.

[AFBlue]

White had 'potential' going for him, or in Hubie-speak 'upside potential' (the potential to have upside). He is tremendously weak but can soar from the air when nobody is around. Never dunks in traffic. He has decent skills, and to be fair, he's a decent shooter, but this look like a draft with a mass of decent-but-not-excellent SF prospects.

Last year we had Rodney Carney, Ronnie Brewer, Thabo Sefolosha (if he's a SF, not a SG), and then a drop to Shawne Williams, then another drop to James White. I cannot express how ty a draft last year was.

Still I think the Spurs should look for more of a "Long 3/Small Ball 4" than a "Bruce Bowen" type with White still on this team. But if the Spurs do draft a guy who looks like the "Bowen Replacement", they'll probably let White go...

[pad300]

Still I think the Spurs should look for more of a "Long 3/Small Ball 4" than a "Bruce Bowen" type with White still on this team. But if the Spurs do draft a guy who looks like the "Bowen Replacement", they'll probably let White go...

Don't get overly tied into the idea of a "Bowen" replacement. We have a lot of old wings (Finley, Barry, Bowen), and one who is just getting to the edge of being old (Manu). I think the FO would be happy to add another young wing prospect to the roster while keeping Mr. White.

I also think that the emphasis will be on best player available, as we have a lot of mediocre spots.
1) Big man beside Duncan (PF or C, whichever works better)
2) Youth at the Wing Spots (at SF backing up or taking over from Bowen or SG, backing up Manu, taking over from Finley & Barry)
That's 4 positions, and at least 6 possible impact points on a 15 man roster. The only position that we are not really interested in is PG; Tony starts for the next 4 or 5 years, and I think the organization is not interested in a non-vet backup PG, after the Beno Udrih saga...

[mardigan]

I agree withthe fact, that we might not ever find a "Bowen replacment", just because there isnt another defender in the league like him defensively. If we could fing someone with decent d, and a much better offensive game, I think it would even itself out with the guy on our new guy having to work on the defensive end, which Bowens defenders dont really have to worry about

[AFBlue]

Don't get overly tied into the idea of a "Bowen" replacement. We have a lot of old wings (Finley, Barry, Bowen), and one who is just getting to the edge of being old (Manu). I think the FO would be happy to add another young wing prospect to the roster while keeping Mr. White.

I also think that the emphasis will be on best player available, as we have a lot of mediocre spots.
1) Big man beside Duncan (PF or C, whichever works better)
2) Youth at the Wing Spots (at SF backing up or taking over from Bowen or SG, backing up Manu, taking over from Finley & Barry)
That's 4 positions, and at least 6 possible impact points on a 15 man roster. The only position that we are not really interested in is PG; Tony starts for the next 4 or 5 years, and I think the organization is not interested in a non-vet backup PG, after the Beno Udrih saga...

Agreed that there is more than one hole in this team, which is why I said the Spurs should grab the best player regardless of position with their first two picks if a "ready" 3 is not available.

[mountainballer]

Trading up still has to be a priority.

I was thinking a lot about this point and I changed my oppinion on this a bit. the most realistic (maybe only realistic?) scenario to trade up is, that Spurs pack the Buck's pick and their first rounder to trade up for (at best) 5 spots. if they add some more, they might be able to jump for another spot or two, but that's it.
now I see it a bit different. the most attracting players (like the mentioned Brewer and Green) will still be out of reach, but as often mentioned, there will be a variety of decent (wing) role players, in other words, exactly what the Spurs need.
I was thinking about the other teams needs and expect even more, that those players drop to the area where Spurs have two picks, because (other than Spurs) most teams are well equiped at the wing. thoses teams would pick a potential star SF even if they have a decent player at SF, but not thoses role player typ SFs.
so the board likely will still be full of nice options (Nichols, Byars, McGuire, Tucker, Rush and some more) and in this case I would prefer to be able to pick two players out of this group, or to pick an interesting PG (Shakur, T.Green?) or big (Fazekas?)

so overall I prefer two picks in the area the Spurs currently are over a 23 or 24 pick. if Spurs go "conservative" and would pick for example Tucker and Nichols, this will also be a good solution, since Spurs have to repleace 3 wing players within the next 1 1/2 years and White is not a sure thing to be one of those repleacements.

[TDMVPDPOY]

unless the spurs pull out another bs pick like ian mahinmi, tp, beno bs, needle in a haystack pick where nobody knows.

im done with the days with this team and FO as the nbas benchmark and reputation, we are barely getting by, and i think its time for change, rejuvenate the n roster damnit with some young talent for teh future. If we are not going to draft a long 3, fill in the other needs.

Trevor ariza looks promisin, is he a FA?

[AFBlue]

Ariza isn't a FA, think he signed a 3yr deal this last off-season.

[AFBlue]

I was thinking a lot about this point and I changed my oppinion on this a bit. the most realistic (maybe only realistic?) scenario to trade up is, that Spurs pack the Buck's pick and their first rounder to trade up for (at best) 5 spots. if they add some more, they might be able to jump for another spot or two, but that's it.
now I see it a bit different. the most attracting players (like the mentioned Brewer and Green) will still be out of reach, but as often mentioned, there will be a variety of decent (wing) role players, in other words, exactly what the Spurs need.
I was thinking about the other teams needs and expect even more, that those players drop to the area where Spurs have two picks, because (other than Spurs) most teams are well equiped at the wing. thoses teams would pick a potential star SF even if they have a decent player at SF, but not thoses role player typ SFs.
so the board likely will still be full of nice options (Nichols, Byars, McGuire, Tucker, Rush and some more) and in this case I would prefer to be able to pick two players out of this group, or to pick an interesting PG (Shakur, T.Green?) or big (Fazekas?)

so overall I prefer two picks in the area the Spurs currently are over a 23 or 24 pick. if Spurs go "conservative" and would pick for example Tucker and Nichols, this will also be a good solution, since Spurs have to repleace 3 wing players within the next 1 1/2 years and White is not a sure thing to be one of those repleacements.

Agreed, but I have to think the Spurs should be ready in case one of these guys falls, which can happen every now and then. If given the choice to trade up and get a guy like Green/Thornton/Brewer, I think the Spurs would have to look hard at doing it. As much as I like Fazekas and Rudy Fernandez and some of the point guards, there isn't an immediate need for those players...then again, maybe the Spurs FO and I have differing opinions....after all, does anyone REALLY know how the Spurs FO thinks?

[mountainballer]

Trevor ariza looks promisin, is he a FA?

McGuire might be close to Ariza, when looking for a long and athletic SF, who can defend.

[mountainballer]

As much as I like Fazekas and Rudy Fernandez and some of the point guards, there isn't an immediate need for those players

I guess I was ambiguous when mentioning Fazekas. I see him as an option for the 2nd rounder, if he is still there. Fazekas wouldn't help immediatly, especially if Bonner resigns.

Fernandez would IMO, even if he isn't the SF we need. a Fernandez scenario IMO only makes sense, if Barry is traded and Rudy takes the back-up PG spot. Finly will also be there next season, so there is a veteran to back up Manu and a young energizer. I would love this option. I'm to much a fan of Fernandez, that I could resist, if he was on the board when the Spurs pick. as you said, there isn't an immediate need for him, but I really would love to see the 8 years younger duplication of Manu on our roster.

[AFBlue]

I guess I was ambiguous when mentioning Fazekas. I see him as an option for the 2nd rounder, if he is still there. Fazekas wouldn't help immediatly, especially if Bonner resigns.

Fernandez would IMO, even if he isn't the SF we need. a Fernandez scenario IMO only makes sense, if Barry is traded and Rudy takes the back-up PG spot. Finly will also be there next season, so there is a veteran to back up Manu and a young energizer. I would love this option. I'm to much a fan of Fernandez, that I could resist, if he was on the board when the Spurs pick. as you said, there isn't an immediate need for him, but I really would love to see the 8 years younger duplication of Manu on our roster.

Again, I agree with you that stockpiling the most talented players is the best option if the Spurs are unable to trade up enough to get "that guy" at SF. I could see a scenario where the Spurs snagged a guy like Rudy Fernandez and then looked to actively trade Barry for immediate help at the 3 spot.

[mountainballer]

Again, I agree with you that stockpiling the most talented players is the best option if the Spurs are unable to trade up enough to get "that guy" at SF. I could see a scenario where the Spurs snagged a guy like Rudy Fernandez and then looked to actively trade Barry for immediate help at the 3 spot.

there might be a scenario like this and if an interesting player (interesting for another team) falls to the Buck's pick, this could be a nice teaser when packed with Barry.
some teams don't have a single pick in this draft (Cavs, Nuggets, Pacers) or own only late 2nd rounder (Raptors), or don't have a 2nd rounder (Knicks, Kings,Hawks, Bobcats, Grizzlies, Heat). for all these teams the Buck's pick should be somehow interesting, considering the deep draft.

[AFBlue]

there might be a scenario like this and if an interesting player (interesting for another team) falls to the Buck's pick, this could be a nice teaser when packed with Barry.
some teams don't have a single pick in this draft (Cavs, Nuggets, Pacers) or own only late 2nd rounder (Raptors), or don't have a 2nd rounder (Knicks, Kings,Hawks, Bobcats, Grizzlies, Heat). for all these teams the Buck's pick should be somehow interesting, considering the deep draft.

S&T for Gerald Wallace involving Barry and one of the first two picks? A man can dream can't he...

[mountainballer]

S&T for Gerald Wallace involving Barry and one of the first two picks? A man can dream can't he...

I didn't post this proposal, because I was afraid to be called clueless again. but yes, that's the kind of dream I would spend some sleep on.
(and I would add some more to the package if needed, in fact everything outside TNT)

a S&T scenario that would work IMO is, Barry+2nd rounder for MoPete (who signs for example a 3 years MLE type contract). well, maybe this would work also without adding the pick, but if the pick was included, Colangelo wouldn't say no.

and, just to mentione the third that comes to mind: S&T for Posey. Miami have a 1st rounder, but considering their aging roster and all the expiring contracts they have, they will like getting another pick. (Posey won't resign with them anyhow)

[Mr. Body]

Interesting scenarios. Brewer/Green may indeed be out of our boundaries and it will suck to see someone pick them up who already has one or two good SFs on the team. Maybe the likely route is to pull an established veteran - I would like to see Barry go this summer, finally traded. I'm not sure who is available at #28, but with guys like Glen Davis already declaring, this could be a very interesting draft. I'm guessing Brandon Rush plays his way out of our grasp, but there will be other guys that drop down. And that Milwaukee pick is aces. What a nice thing to have. The only way to this up for the FO is to sit back and do the stuff they've been doing the last few years. This is the absolutely wrong year to try and punt the draft picks.

[mountainballer]

I'm not sure who is available at #28, but with guys like Glen Davis already declaring, this could be a very interesting draft.

would you pick Davis with our 1st rounder?
he is a bit of a miracle, bcause noone can really tell how he will do in the NBA. he is a great guy, but I wouldn't risk the 1st rounder on him, we already have Butler as a player, who might have had a better career as a defensive lineman.

maybe he would also be an option for the 2nd rounder, if he is still on the board at 35.

[Mr. Body]

No, I wouldn't take Davis, but I meant that somebody would. The more underclassmen come out, the better our chances someone floats to us. I probably would consider him at 35.

[mountainballer]

No, I wouldn't take Davis, but I meant that somebody would. The more underclassmen come out, the better our chances someone floats to us. I probably would consider him at 35.

yes, I see.
combined with what I ment (that many teams picking ahead of us are filled with athletic wing players) every decent big who declares helps us. (goes also for PGs, there are only a few decent in this draft, those who are will likely be picked a bit higher).
looking at the current board, all non lottery picks before the Spurs pick are owned by teams that don't have SF as no. 1 need, most needed a PG and a big more than a wing. you mentioned Brandon Rush. he might be one of thoses players who will slip to our draft area. (if he declares)
in other years he would go 15-20 (I don't think teams see him as a lottery pick) but this year he will be there at 28 IMO.

[Mr. Body]

There is only a slight chance Oden or Durant stays for another year. That's two.

If you look at the very best teams, how many players come from them might depend on how far they go. A team winning it all and sticking together, like Florida last year, is rare, and even a deep run can convince guys to come out.

Florida: Horford, Brewer, Noah
UNC: Hansbrough, Wright, Lawson?
UCLA: Collison?
Kansas: Wright, Rush, Arthur
Georgetown: Hibbert, Green

Then add Al Thornton, Yi Jianlin, Acie Law, and you basically have a lottery right there, minus one or two players (Rush projected later, etc.). And that's not accounting for Tiago Splitter, Marcus Williams, and guys like Aaron Gray, who some team will take too high. And it doesn't account for Thaddeus Young, Javaris Crittendon, and other underclassmen who will probably stay in.

That's pretty amazing. Unfortunately, the Spurs are about 8 picks out of making any real hay, but will make for an unusually intriguing draft.