Shoogar Bear

[DisgruntledLionFan#54,927]

That's the point I was trying to make. Both you and Jim said that odds have to do with the chance of a team winning.

So the ultimate conclusion is the "odds" have nothing to do with "chance of a team winning", it's just an artificial construct by Vegas. So saying a team with 3-to-1 odds against has a "25% chance of winning" is just not true. And so there's no "conservation of odds" when Vegas goes about setting the line for the various teams, i.e., the odds of one team has nothing to do with the ulative odds of the other teams.

Yeah I guess I am used to poker and let that influence my earlier post.

Vegas odds are calculated to evenly spread the money bet on teams...

[Old School Chic]

And how can I forget my Jimcs50 :p

[ShoogarBear]

I never saidthat the odds were their chance of winning, it is not like a roll of the die or the toss of the coin, it is just the odds that you get when you bet on that particular team to win.

Ahem. From
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...&postcount=144

They are a 7-2 favorite....that means that they are a 3.5-1 favorite, in other words, they have a 3.5-1 chance of winning it all compared to the field.

Dtroit and SA are the favorites, but that does not mean that they actully hae a 75% chance of winnng.

Now if you look at a historical act of hw many times the #1 seeded teams made the Finals, then you can surmise that the fav made the Finals, X amt of times in history. But that does not really determine anything at all, because it is not a mathematical fact.

I agree with everything you say.

I know that you actually know what you're talking about. What I'm doing is picking on imprecisions in what you are saying, not to be an asshole (that is just a fringe benefit) but point out how your original statement that Detroit was a 7-2 favorite was ambiguous.

[Jimcs50]

Shoogar, good thing that Detroit beat Dallas now. Otherwise, Friday's game could have decided the West. I like having that cushion, personally.

[Jimcs50]

Western Conference
W L PCT GB HM RD CONF DIV PF PA DIFF STRK L10
x-San Antonio 59 18 .766 - 32-6 27-12 38-10 12-3 95.4 88.7 +6.7 Won 1 6-4
x-Dallas 59 19 .756 ½ 33-6 26-13 36-12 13-3 99.3 92.6 +6.7 Won 5 6-4
x-Phoenix 50 26 .658 8 ½ 29-10 21-16 28-18 9-4 108.3 102.9 +5.4 Lost 1 5-5
x-Memphis 44 33 .571 15 28-11 16-22 27-21 5-10 91.9 88.6 +3.3 Lost 1 6-4
x-LA Clippers 44 33 .571 15 26-13 18-20 24-23 7-9 97.3 95.6 +1.7 Lost 3 5-5
Denver 44 34 .564 15 ½ 26-13 18-21 25-23 10-4 101.0 100.1 +0.9 Won 3 6-4
Sacramento 41 37 .526 18 ½ 25-13 16-24 27-21 10-5 98.6 97.3 +1.3 Won 3 7-3
LA Lakers 41 37 .526 18 ½ 23-14 18-23 23-25 7-7 98.8 97.0 +1.8 Won 1 7-3


Shoogar, had Dallas beaten Detroit, SA would have no cushion at all. Dallas is playing great ball now that they are healthy again(Beat Clippers in LA last night). I would hate for SA to have to sweep their remaining opponents in order to keep the #1 seed, since Dallas looks pretty good right now to win out, as far as their schedule. Phoenix can not beat Dallas IMO.

Are you going to admit that I was right yet?

[ShoogarBear]

No, because once again my point is that the Spurs don't need HCA to beat the Mavs. I don't care about HCA against Dallas. The only HCA that matters is agains Detroit, and the only chance they had of getting that was for the Pistons to start losing.

[Old School Chic]

You guys (Oso & Jim) are so silly

I can't believe this thread is still going

[Jimcs50]

No, because once again my point is that the Spurs don't need HCA to beat the Mavs. I don't care about HCA against Dallas. The only HCA that matters is agains Detroit, and the only chance they had of getting that was for the Pistons to start losing.

Had Detroit lost to Dallas, they still would have been too far in front of SA anyway...so your point is moot.

It is better to have HCA in West locked up, because the Spurs are not going to beat Dallas and Detroit w/o HCA.