I am with you here, Marcus. We are stuck with the team we have unless Beno gets traded for a future first. I think it would be smarter to send Beno to LA rather than Cleveland as that team could go into serious re-build by the end of the summer.
Also, as I scrolled through the months of draft talk, I saw starting about two months ago a real push for a backup-PG (Mr. Body, I'm calling you out). I really don't know what you guys want out of the backup PG position - a superstar backup PG? Really? I think in the Spurs system, you want a backup-PG to manage the game, play great D, and just not turn the ball over. Granted, Vaughn made his share of mistakes but I found his presence to be altogether positive and I think he showed some guts in the playoffs knocking down some big jumpers to seal the Phoenix series and hustling after some loose balls. You think some rookie is going to do that? I sure don't. We have a PG coming off an Finals MVP season and the current formula, call me crazy, seems to have worked.
The wings are what bother me more. Fernandez won't be there. Period. Afflalo won't either. I think we are stuck with Barry, Finley, Bowen at our 2 and 3 due to contracts, age, loyalty. I see this draft playing out as one last attempt at a stash in Europe before we have to start seriously re-tooling.
Also, just for my information - how many roster spots will we have open before the draft? I count 1.
The Spurs should watch out if they're helping spread false information. That gets close to tampering.
That said, as a strategy it might not work anyway - perhaps Fernandez keeps sliding past teams like Phoenix, but it's not a given. All this is moot if the Spurs have a deal in place to leap forward in the draft.
I'm not sure why so many believe the Spurs will take a domestic player at #28. Perhaps wishful thinking (which I am guilty of as well). But the Spurs have a roster that's rather stacked for next season, assuming they don't lose any rotational players in free agency. In addition they have guys like White and Butler who are de facto draft picks. Plus there are rumblings that they will bring Mahinmi in this summer and let him play in Austin next season. Beyond that, the Spurs' window to win championships is now through roughly 2010 or 2011. They are going to field the team that has the best shot at winning now with TD, not tomorrow.
Punting on #28 makes perfect sense for a team that has flirted with the luxury tax (no matter how much management and coaches want to kiss ass, the Spurs have clearly tried to avoid the lux tax over the last 5 years, likely due to Holt's wishes). The Spurs can get a similar talent at #33 at a far lesser price (using a 3 year, nonguaranteed deal with a minimal commitment ala Sato) than at #28. With Ely likely to leave and perhaps Beno and/or Barry leaving there will be a spot for one guy out of the draft and that will probably be whoever they pick up at #33. Of course, #58 will be used on someone who is destined to start (or continue) their career in Europe.
Anyways, no matter how much we wish the Spurs will use their picks on the here and now, the history of Spurs drafts speaks otherwise. They have indeed missed out on talent by not using their picks over the last 5 years, but they have also won 3 les during that time.
All the talk of promises leads to another thought that might be generally accepted:
The Spurs are looking for their back-up point with the #33 pick and are ranking them at the moment, whereby they'll select the first of whomever is left.
Sure, if a Fernandez or Belinelli is available they will take him at #28. They may also take an unknown younger player. But in any event that player is destined to play abroad for some time. Otherwise, I expect them to deal the pick.
I say we shop our 28th and Beno to LA for conditional 1st round pick (LA keeps it if it's in the top 5) in '08 or '09.
We don't necesarily have to get that SF in the draft. There are plaenty of guys available in freeagency (Pietrus and Ime Udoka come to mind). There is much better value at SG at the end of the 1st(Almond, Byars, Fernandez, Belinelli) than at SF. Kevin Pritchard has said in the past that he learned from the Spurs to take the best player available, so I see the Spurs doing that. Of course, CIA Pop could have persuaded Ricky Rubio to change his name and edit his birth certificate to pick him up a few years early.
Great idea. Too bad the Lakers would have absolutely ZERO interest in trading a potential lottery pick next year for two spares.
couldn't agree with you more. relying on geezers like barry and finley is not going to cut it for much longer.
Fin and Barry are only under contract for one more year, so the Spurs won't have to rely on them for much longer. I also think this is why the Spurs are opting to look at bigger PGs who are likely to share some time at SG if a guy like Barry is traded away. I think both Pruitt and Dowdell are legitimate options for the draft to come in right away and see if they can wrestle the backup job from Jacque and/or prove they deserve enough minutes to make Barry expendable.
We can talk all day long about who we should draft here or there but frankly, too many things are up in the air at the moment to truly know what will happen. Here are some of the questions that the Spurs organization is struggling with answering right now. Once we get an idea of what their thought process is we'll get a better idea of what happens:
A) Will Fabricio Oberto pick up his option?
This is very likely the principle question on their minds right now (assuming Fabs hasn't made his intentions known to them already). If he opts out then it could either cut into our available cap room or leave us with a void to fill in our starting lineup. Honestly, I think he stays. But then again, I've only met the guy once and we weren't exactly talking about his long-term goals in life either.
B) Will Michael Finley pick up his option?
Mike was great in the playoffs (I give him a mulligan for the finals) and is a huge part of our repeat effort. But if he decides to test free agency I don't think we pursue. With a draft class so deep in SGs we could fill that hole for much less money and leave the 08 plan roughly intact. Does he leave? I think it's 50/50. It depends on how much longer he wants to play. If he thinks he has 3-4 more years left then now is the time for him to negotiate that last contract.
C) Which free agents of ours do we resign?
Jacque Vaughn will most definitely get an offer this offseason from us again. I think it will be around the vet minimum again for possibly 2 years. Miami has expressed interest in him though, and if they up the ante then he might bolt. Then again, Miami doesn't look to be going anywhere next year and we are the reigning champs. He might just prefer to stick around. Melvin Ely is a goner unless something absolutely horrible happens to our roster. Matt Bonner is a bit of a wild card. A lot of people assumed he would be retained, but then Horry decided he wouldn't retire afterall. Because of his lack of defensive ability I don't see him sticking around, but hes definitely a guy that could go either way.
D) Will we pick up James White's option?
In a word, yes. The guy fills a need at a position we're only getting thinner at, has a year in the system, is athletic as can be and is cheaper than anything else out there that we would sign as a free agent. Plus, if we decide to bail on him after next season his contract is over and he won't interfere with the 08 plan. Unless roster spots get THAT tight, he stays.
E) The million dollar question
Will Luis Scola come over this offseason?
Answer: Yes he absolutely will, unless he decides not to. Frankly, at this point, I don't think anybody knows. But what is more intriguing is "how much value does he garner in a trade?" Mr. Body's idea of trading Barry/Beno/Scola for Nocioni is a wonderful one. It fills needs for both teams and finally gets this pest out of our hair. If a trade like that is on the board then he is definitely out the door. Otherwise, it's anybody's guess whether this guy will come over or sign another 10 year contract abroad. But this is likely the BIG question of the summer.
F) Will we dump Beno?
Yes. Hes gone. I think the intense workouts of multiple PGs for this year's draft is proof enough (if Jacque Vaughn's vaulting over him in the lineup wasn't enough for you).
G) Who will become Bruce's replacement (otherwise known as the long 3/4 combo forward argument)?
I tend to think our best potential option is Mr Andrés Nocioni. But that is of course up to him and Mr. Paxson. We could also draft somebody like Demetris Nichols, Wilson Chandler, Dominic McGuire, Jared Dudley etc... But unless Thaddeus Young slides to us or we trade up I don't know that its a given that we draft one. Other FA possibilities include Mickael Pietrus (possible), Matt Barnes (unlikely), James Posey (very possible), Gerald Wallace (very unlikely), Travis Outlaw (unlikely) or any imaginable trade option with common names like Viktor Krhyapa, Walter Hermann and a patridge in a pear tree. Come up with your own solution here because we have a lot of different ways this can go.
H) Who is on the block and what is their value?
I have to believe that Brent Barry is still on the block most definitely there. Elson would be moved for the right price too. Interestingly, Ian Mahinmi could be moved to the Sonics as Sam Presti is the wunderkind that wanted to draft him. What is their value? I have no idea. But our guys need to determine that.
I) Does Mahinmi come over this year?
If there is a roster spot I believe he does.
These are the basic questions that the team has to ask themselves and determine answers for before they know who they can/should draft. Couple that in with the possibility of draft day trades and not knowing who will slide or fall to your spot and it could get messy. If:
A) Fabs is back
B) Fin-Dawg is back
C) Vaughn returns, Ely and Bonner walk
D) White returns
E) Scola/Beno/Barry are traded for Nocioni
F) Beno gone in aforementioned trade
G) Nocioni
H) See E
I) Mahinmi comes over this year
then this is likely what you get.
Parker/Vaughn
Ginobili/Finley/White/Bowen/Nocioni
Duncan/Oberto/Horry/Elson/Butler/Mahinmi
That leaves two spots open for draft picks or FAs (and remember, we still haven't used our MLE). I imagine instead of endangering our 08 plan we sign cheaper rookies to fill out the roster (probably a PG and wing) and draft Euros with the 28 and probably the 58 too. I am personally in favor of then drafting a domestic PG with the 33 and signing the best available undrafted FA (or a player taken with the 58) or a young D-League standout to work out for a year and see if he clicks in the system (or so we can drop him to try and pick up next year's version of Glenn Robinson, Chris Webber, or Jalen Rose). I would love to find another Bruce Bowen kind of guy. Lets say for example that we pick up DJ Strawberry (a guy I have taken a liking to) and picked up Dowdell and some foreigner with the other two picks.
Parker/Dowdell/Vaughn (inactive)
Ginobili/Finley/White/Bowen/Nocioni/Strawberry (inactive)
Duncan/Horry/Oberto/Butler/Elson/Mahinmi (inactive)
Obviously, this can all change if anything does not occur like I said it would in this example. If the Nocioni trade doesn't happen then Barry stays on the team and Strawberry is not picked up. Beno is likely traded for a future draft pick (probably to Cleveland). Scola might come over to SA in which case he would replace Mahinmi on the roster or Strawberry depending on what set of events occurs. If Finley opts out then we might draft a domestic SG with the 28 and bring him in now etc etc etc.
There are a plethora of events that could or should happen this offseason. While we probably won't be able to predict the draft it seems likely that the draft will give us a good idea of predicting what the rest of the offseason will look like.
Last edited by Darkwaters; 06-20-2007 at 09:56 PM.
Here's my guess:
28. we take the best available foreign player and stash him. No up front money guarantee and no luxury tax.
33. We take the best available SF
58. Another foreign player because at 58 the pick is a big gamble anyway.
I think all the PG workouts indicate that at one of the first two picks we take a lead guard.
Agree but I think #33 will be a PG.
Considering the glaring need for a SF and the real lack of interest in some of the draft prospects at that position (compared to the PGs that is) I think it might indicate that the Spurs have some clearcut targets for free agency this offseason that they think are obtainable.
Either that or it's just CIA Pop doing his thing.
I agree. Right now the free agent market for SF's looks much more promising than PG's. Plus, I don't think they've given up on White--he might never be their starting SF, but at least he is already familiar with the players and the Spurs system.
Problem is there are no good starters available where our draft picks are - possibly a big man or a guard winds up a starter, but everyone else looks like a role player so far, so the Spurs can't expect to get their Bowen replacement there.
I really look at him as more of a prospect at shooting guard. He has a shaky jumper right now, but Chip can surely shore that up a bit. As far as being a Bruce Bowen replacement though I can see that as a possibility. But Bruce isn't really your ideal SF to begin with.
YES. I hoped he'd come out this year.
When I read his profile, I completely freaked out. Instead of forcing the Bowen mold on some other combo-forward, this kid looks like the real deal. I hope his lack of an offense will keep other teams away, but this could wind up being next year's worst kept secret.
Another Pg whowill have a workout with the team
Ramon Sessions
From the Myrtle Beach News Sun : " Sessions is currently on a five-city tour to work out for more teams - San Antonio, Golden State, Seattle, Houston and Miami - but doesn't have a preference to play for one."
It's not a secret the Spus wanna a PG so they explore all the guys they can
http://www.nbadraft.net/admincp/prof...nsessions.html
http://www.draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=466
IMO,
Spurs are taking a combo guard and an international player....now whether those two are one in the same (Koponen) is yet to be seen.
Here's how I see it fleshing out...
If the Spurs take Koponen at #28, they go for Afflalo/Dudley/Visser at #33.
If the Spurs take Pruitt at #28, they go for Stanko/Fesenko at #33
If the Spurs take Fernandez/Belinelli at #28, they go for Dowdell at #33
What do you think about that logic?
If we can't land a guy like Nocioni this offseason then it might be prudent to bring in somebody like James Posey instead and hope you can get somebody like this guy (if not THIS guy) next season to train up.
IMO the team will take a pg with their second round pick
probably they will try to take the best wing player available with pick no.28
Last edited by A.H 21-50; 06-21-2007 at 09:39 AM.
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