People who become convinced they are getting screwed.
The red team usually wins on this.
Its time blue team stood up and people running for Congress like Beto tell it like it is.
“We need liberals on the SC. Our current fair liberal judges who really understand America are old and could be close to retiring or dying. They MUST be replaced eventually by the sane type of forward thinking,liberal judges. We don’t need anymore zealot, I hate your party and I don’t care about America or fairness types. Same with the district courts.”
”You need to vote for me because the Republican lies and mad crybaby gold spoon candidates need to be gone.”
He needs to say it.
I double dare him.
That sounds like lunacy to run like that in Texas. He's trying to argue for bipartisanship to appeal to voters who hate the gridlock of Washington. I don't think it's enough in a state this deeply red but he has gotten a lot farther than I would have ever expected if you asked me a year ago.
Red team will vote. They will turn out for Cruz. No matter what. It may illicit a few more red team votes.
The blue team... they have the possibility of a larger number of voters based on ethnicity and socioeconomic status. Will they vote? They have not before. Maybe if you tell them to instead of this wishynwashy stuff. Define a liberal for them as people who now understand that Trumpian lying must come to an end. Start it now. Vote for me. I will work with sane republicans. I will bring out the Republicans scared to show their displeasure in their leaders deceit. It’s time.
Go for it. Getting close is not good enough, and that’s all Beto is, close. Say it.
If red team votes there is nothing Beto can do to win. He doesn't want to motivate Cruz voters. Blue voters are already pissed off and will show.
Not imo.
The new blue you can bring forth is much larger than the new or the very few disinterested red.
The red team vote can’t get as large as the nascent blue vote.
Thats how I see it right now.
After the first (only) debate against Cruz - I felt the same way -
but the more I thought about it - I came to the realization that Beto is sticking to his strategy and - although it is a long shot - I hope he pulls it off.
Look at it this way;
The people on Betos side are voting for him
The hard core repukes - will never vote for him.
The independents - have nothing to lose by giving Beto a chance and giving him the vote - because -look at how ty the country is doing. The divided state we are in, the disrespect, the corruption.
Here is where I was convinced: There might be some loyal repukes that are just a tiny tiny bit open-minded and will cross their arms and listen - just for a minute or two -
as soon as Beto goes far far left or trashes Trump or goes the way that CRUZ misrepresents him - they will turn off and never vote for Beto.
But - if he shows them a little respect - does NOT attack them for being brainwashed or a cult - or trump s - lol -
and he shows them that he wants to at least show respect, try to work across the aisle - and talks to them like they deserve a little respect -
there just might be some votes he can steal from Cruz. Highly doubtful - but it is worth a shot. Sometimes people want to believe in something and might be tired of the battle.
Otherwise - the minute he insults them - they will immediately turn away and re-confirm their already red bias. So why not give his strategy a shot - he is riding with that game plan.
Non voters are extremely difficult to convince to vote. His only chance is poor turnout from the right.
Yep.
And I say it loses.
A respectable disappointing loss for blue.
He has an outside chance of winning. He goes hard left and he gets destroyed in a landslide.
Yeah - I fear you are right - I was pissed after that debate - but give it some thought - he might actually be onto something.
Texas is a longshot - I know - I cannot stand half of my co-workers that are stupid cult sheep - they sicken me - I stopped talking to most of them . This didn't happen under other Repub presidents - I understood we just had different political leanings - so we were still cool. I did not see them as turning their back on their country. I did not see them as being complicit in treason, corruption,lying, white supremacy sympathizers, etc..
we just believed in different policies and that was ok. The country wasn't being pulled apart and democracy was not in peril -
So Texans voted TWICE for GW Bush - we are a ed up state.
Still - Beto - has told thousands of people at his events - that he respected that they voted for Cruz before and told them - I trust that you knew what you were doing. Then he said his thing. Told them what he believed - told them he was taking no money from pacs - told them it was just a movement made of people - all Americans.
Those Republicans that he spoke to - have to at least give it some thought - they KNOW CRUZ is a bought and paid for .
Yep.
But I fully believe the red turnout will be large.
So get the birth of the hiding blue vote or ...
Good job Beto, fairly close. Why don’t we try you as a .... for the future.
Unless I’m underestimating how utterly de able Cruz is to the right as I don’t really believe there is true independent mine of votes on this contest. I believe red team is not excited about Cruz will still hold noses and vote for Cruz anyway. Trump has and will tell them to.
I know too many Trumpies who are actually very good people.
First to help anyone in a tough situation types. Really don’t want to get into politics.
They believe a Trump is a liar but fear of blue Clinton’s give them bad dreams. It’s a real fear for them. Red team has done a good fear factor job in Texas imo. And some just vote red because that’s what you do.
5 points up in one month is big
Cnn says 41 means really 51 -61
there is some out of fear vote blue because that is what they do
Yep
Why Beto O’Rourke Won’t Beat Ted Cruz in Texas
https://therivardreport.com/why-beto...cruz-in-texas/
So 6% of Republicans vote for Beto and 20% more democrats vote and he still loses. Or an awful lot of republicans have to stay home to get Beto over the top.The average number of Republican votes in gubernatorial and midterm Senate races in 2010 and 2014 has been about 2.8 million, according to records kept by the Texas Secretary of State. The average Democratic vote total in those races has been approximately 1.9 million. In other words, historical results suggest approximately 900,000 more Republican voters than Democratic voters in the average midterm election.
A hypothetical defection of 6 percent of Republican votes to O’Rourke subtracts about 168,000 votes from the average GOP vote total.
Even if we were to assume that all of these Republican voters fled to O’Rourke – as opposed to just staying home – that would leave Cruz ahead by approximately 564,000 votes. Could Democrats increase turnout enough to close that gap?
It would be an uphill battle, with hopes of victory resting on mobilizing groups with historically low turnout levels in midterm elections, such as young voters and Democratic-leaning Latinos. Exit polls for recent elections illustrate just how difficult this has been in recent history. Latinos, for example, made up only 17 percent of the electorate in 2014. In that year, nearly half of Latino voters backed the Republican candidate, and the Democrat lost by 20 percentage points.
But let’s imagine that O’Rourke manages to mobilize an additional 20 percent to the baseline Democratic vote – an optimistic estimate for O’Rourke. That would add another 380,000 votes to the Democrat’s total – still short of Cruz’s projected vote total by 184,000 votes.
I think trying to turn non voters into voters is a losing strategy. I can't tell you how frustrating it is hearing my neighbors tell me how much they hate Trump, they hate Cruz, and then they say they didn't vote. None of them are immigrants much less illegals. We're not going to get automatic voter registration or same day registration ever in Texas, the Republicans depend on the silent majority staying silent.
This is a seat that really shouldn't be up for grabs in any normal election year. I feel like Beto going left would be the same miscalculation Romney made in picking Ryan as his running mate and going right when he had a base already extremely motivated by the scary negro in the white house. All that did was fire up the left that didn't give a two years before.
Millennials gonna save the Dems, lol
You're really going on a limb there. Interview a couple of kids and make your case.
When people talk about millennials, they dont mean barely out of school kids. Ask people in the range of 25-30 and you will have different answers.
Personally I didn't follow politics or anything relating to it until Obama's second term where I turned 27.
universalizing an anecdote is the classic DarrinS maneuver
Al Gore vs Bush Jr.
Shillary vs The Don early on.
Dems are proven capable of phucking up huge leads with their fake bull .
So I don't know that some huge switch back to the Demons is coming.
Forty-seven percent of Arizona’s likely voters back Republican Martha McSally in the Arizona Senate race compared to 41 percent who support Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, according to a new ABC15/OH Predictive Insights poll.
The poll revealed McSally is increasing her support. A September ABC15/OHPI poll showed her leading 49-46 percent.
Pollster Mike Noble credited the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination with helping McSally increase her lead.
"What we saw all year was Republicans were less united compared to Democrats, who were more united or fully united," Noble said.
"So, whether they disliked Trump or had issues with the establishment, now what we've seen is (the) Kavanaugh confirmation process has really brought all those Republicans home and has solidified the Republican base, hence why you're seeing all the favorable numbers toward McSally."
According to Real Clear Politics' average of the key polls, only seven Senate seats are true "toss ups" — and to take control of the chamber, the Democrats have to win all seven. To make matters worse for Democrats, the so-called "Kavanaugh effect" appears to be real and seems to particularly impacting a few of those toss-up seats.
RCP currently gives Republicans 49 seats that are either "safe" or not up for reelection. Prior to the Kavanaugh allegations, that number was 47. Meanwhile, the Democrats safely have 44 seats, which means they need to win all seven of the remaining toss ups to gain the 51-seat majority in the Senate. Post-Kavanaugh, that prospect is looking less and less likely.
A new poll has found that Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s long-shot quest to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, which has generated so much enthusiasm and financial support from national Democrats, has stalled well short of success.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Cruz leading O’Rourke 54 percent to 45 percent among likely Texas voters — roughly unchanged since a Quinnipiac poll taken in September.
RIP Democratic party
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