Want to preface that anyone who posts individual polls and handwaving at them claiming victory is an abject moron.
Similarly 538 had Clinton up two points and gave Trump a 35% chance to win in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote at a bit over 1% and Trump won the electoral college ie hitting his 35% chance. If you are too stupid or ignorant to understand what probabilities mean then you really shouldn't comment.
538 does not poll. They take all of the polls and adjust for actual bias and weight them based on precision. IOW if the aggregate of a pollster shows them 3 points in favor of one party over actual results they adjust the pollster to actual results. They give more weight to pollsters that are precise. IOW, They hit the same target consistently regardless of accurate.
A good example of this is Rasmussen. People note how they always bias towards GOP candidates and conclude their results should be thrown out. 538 does not. They adjust for the bias and grade them well because they have a consistent bias.
Anyhow. Their models include individual state polling and the way each state apportions their electors.
They give Biden an 86% chance to win and Trump a 13% chance.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/
They have Biden up 9.2 points up in national polling
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/
Note that the standard error for polls is ~5%.