2020 blue wave

[Will Hunting]

"The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”

Fraudulent investment managers do this all the time. They look back at historical data and cherrypick events that, if weighed correctly in a model, would have accurately predicted a series of past results that are already known, then they claim to have unearthed the secret to investing while failing to tell you all they did was jerry-rig a model to make it so the model accurately "predicts" past results.

https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...-will-win-2020

He cited the fact Trump got 85% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary as a key indicator, as if the fact an in bent without any material primary opposition getting 80+% of the vote is some meaningful indicator. Do you not see the flaw in that? His model is literally always going to project an in bent wins unless the in bent faces primary compe ion which never happens.

Do you actually think Trump is going to win NY? Yes or no.

[RandomGuy]

Fraudulent investment managers do this all the time. They look back at historical data and cherrypick events that, if weighed correctly in a model, would have accurately predicted a series of past results that are already known.

https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...-will-win-2020

He cited the fact Trump got 85% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary as a key indicator, as if the fact an in bent without any material primary opposition getting 80+% of the vote is some meaningful indicator. Do you not see the flaw in that? His model is literally always going to project an in bent wins unless the in bent faces primary compe ion which never happens.

Do you actually think Trump is going to win NY? Yes or no.

I was going to point this exact thing out, but decided to let it be. It has a serious case of what I call the SALT fallacy. (same as last time)

Bear in mind TSA is simply trolling. Best not to spend too much time on TSA B.S. IMO. LOL.

[Reck]

Lol TSA thinks that map is realistic.

Cult. That is all.

[Will Hunting]

So the model has technically actually been used on the last 6 elections, and he whiffed one already. Ok, not a great model.

The model is based off how candidates perform in "early primaries (i.e. Iowa, New Hampshire) and that's it, so when an in bent wins early primaries in a landslide because he has no primary compe ion, this re 's model uses that as a key indicator said in bent will get re-elected regardless of anything else.

3 of those 6 elections were an in bent running with no primary compe ion (1996, 2004, 2012). Of the other 3 elections, he got one right because the winner of the Dem nomination performed horribly in the early primary states, which happened to be an indicator, but he got the other 2 wrong (2000 & 2008). He admits he got 2000 wrong but he's also lying about his model in the 2008 race. He predicted Shillary would "narrowly defeat" John McCain in a general election while McCain would end up in a "virtual tie" with Obama if Obama was the candidate. It was the easiest election in recent memory to predict and he has no plausible argument that he got it right but claims he did
http://primarymodel.com/2008

All he's done is find a variable that happens to align with some past election results but he's also lying about how accurate his model was for the last 6 elections. MAGA s are so ing gullible.

[ElNono]

or they applied the model retroactively with polling/primary data and got correct results on previous elections

I'm sure they tried to do that. However, who checked on the reliability of that data?

[RandomGuy]

Lol TSA thinks that map is realistic.

Cult. That is all.

He doesn't. If he really thought so, he would come out and say it directly.

He is, though, "sticking it to the libs", which is why he simply passed on a quote.

Disingenuous to the last.

[TSA]

Fraudulent investment managers do this all the time. They look back at historical data and cherrypick events that, if weighed correctly in a model, would have accurately predicted a series of past results that are already known, then they claim to have unearthed the secret to investing while failing to tell you all they did was jerry-rig a model to make it so the model accurately "predicts" past results.

https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...-will-win-2020

He cited the fact Trump got 85% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary as a key indicator, as if the fact an in bent without any material primary opposition getting 80+% of the vote is some meaningful indicator. Do you not see the flaw in that? His model is literally always going to project an in bent wins unless the in bent faces primary compe ion which never happens.

Do you actually think Trump is going to win NY? Yes or no.

PA bakery claims cookie sales have predicted past presidential elections — and here's how it looks for 2020

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/p...mpression=true

[RandomGuy]

PA bakery claims cookie sales have predicted past presidential elections — and here's how it looks for 2020

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/p...mpression=true

"_twitter_impression=true"

You must go into withdrawal symptoms when the network goes down. (reaches for the Norcan, just in case)

[ElNono]

PA bakery claims cookie sales have predicted past presidential elections — and here's how it looks for 2020

https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/p...mpression=true

Cookies look good, tbh

[Trainwreck2100]

Blue wave? Forget that, what about a red wave?

Trumpers are delusional by default but this is something else entirely.

making a model on primaries when 1 side doesn't have a primary because he's an in bent

[RandomGuy]

making a model on primaries when 1 side doesn't have a primary because he's an in bent

It really is that dumb.

Almost as dumb as this one:

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...1#post10079227

[Will Hunting]

Seriously, are GOP senators trying to lose? Trump has made everyone in his party a racist dumbass

[Reck]

Seriously, are GOP senators trying to lose? Trump has made everyone in his party a racist dumbass

Does he think she's hispanic? Mala mala makes zero sense unless you apply some spanish into it which then would translate into "bad."


Dumb s.

[Will Hunting]

Does he think she's hispanic? Mala mala makes zero sense unless you apply some spanish into it which then would translate into "bad."


Dumb s.

He serves on the same budget committee as she does. He clearly knows her name but he got caught up in the moment and let some racism slip out

[Reck]

Yooooooo Will Hunting this is a little worse than the clip you posted.



This clip is way longer and really shows how badly she butchered the question. This might actually cost her.

[gambit1990]

New poll shows Jaime Harrison up by 2%

https://wpde.com/news/local/new-poll...by-210-17-2020

[ChumpDumper]

Yooooooo Will Hunting this is a little worse than the clip you posted.



This clip is way longer and really shows how badly she butchered the question. This might actually cost her.

She just wouldn't let it go and tried to gaslight the moderator, her challenger and the viewing public that NO I WAS ASKED ABOUT CORN AND GOT IT RIGHT!

[Will Hunting]

I originally paid attention to this race just because I think Joni Ernst is a and it was a winnable race, but Greenfield has actually been a phenomenal candidate so far.

She's done everything imaginable to stomp on Ernst's throat since that debate gaff

[Trainwreck2100]

Yooooooo Will Hunting this is a little worse than the clip you posted.



This clip is way longer and really shows how badly she butchered the question. This might actually cost her.

i really wish you'd stop sharing that guy's videos.

[tholdren]

I was going to point this exact thing out, but decided to let it be. It has a serious case of what I call the SALT fallacy. (same as last time)

Bear in mind TSA is simply trolling. Best not to spend too much time on TSA B.S. IMO. LOL.

WrongdomGuy so intimidated by trump. Sad for a supposed grown man

[spurraider21]

i really wish you'd stop sharing that guy's videos.

I just watch until he starts talking

[tholdren]

WrongdomGuy so intimidated by trump. Sad for a supposed grown man

[ElNono]

i really wish you'd stop sharing that guy's videos.

[Spurminator]

Fake news

[Will Hunting]

That might be fake news.