Apart from a blue wave year it would be 6-2 in WI either way.
I don't see AZ / outer Phoenix as some next-Atlanta sort of unsalveagable place for the GOP. Unlike Georgia I think AZ can become Republican long term by continuing to increase their proportion of Hispanic vote.
Tennessee Democrats are saying they'll sue the map... "we'll see you in court". I don't know if they have the guns in court that states like NC and OH have to overturn it, though.
There's absolutely no avenue for the TN Dems to do anything. Nashville isn't black enough for a VRA lawsuit and the TN State cons ution doesn't have any rules about a partisan fairness. Maybe they'll sue but it'll be a waste of money.
Schweikert's district picked up a lot of Phoenix itself, it's now a district Biden won and while it won't shift as radically as Georgia will, it not going to get any redder.
Ohio's state Supreme Court has struck down the state's new congressional map as a Republican gerrymander that violates the state cons ution.
I'm not so sure about that. If and when the national Hispanic vote gets to 45% GOP - 55% Dem, potentially even by 2024 at this rate, AZ goes back to the Lean R category and Maricopa becomes a toss up county... possibly Tilt R or Tilt D depending on national environment. Also, the senior citizen vote will inevitably go back to pre-covid percentages in favor of the GOP when covid is over, so that will move the state a bit back to say, 2016 political lean. It will never be safe for one side for the other and in a blue wave year the Dems absolutely could win statewide elections, they did so in 1996... but it's not going to be blue in a normal-environment year like Georgia will.
North Carolina... who knows. There's positive momentum on both sides in that state. They keep electing Roy Cooper even while voting Lean R with senate and POTUS on the same ticket. Weird state. A lot of conservatives moving there from Georgia and the Northeast colder states. A lot of young educated liberals moving there especially to Raleigh-Durham-RTP area for jobs, though covid put a dent on that because most of those jobs can be worked from home. Who knows...?
North Carolina I agree, each party has positive momentum but I think it's going to stay at least tilt red for the foreseeable. Unlike in GA where Democrats have already bottomed out with rural whites, there's still plenty of room for Dems to fall with NC rural whites.
Arizona Hispanics didn't shift anywhere near as much as national Hispanics did in 2020; the barely shifted at all and that's unlikely to change. The Arizona Dems are much better with Hispanics than the Florida or Texas Dems, and the Arizona GOP has poisoned the well with an entire generation of Hispanics because of Jan Brewer/Joe Arpaio. The Hispanic population in AZ is younger, more progressive and much more urbanized than the TX Hispanics are.
Schweikert's district is also only 14% Hispanic and the Hispanics in it are a lot more educated than the working class Hispanics in South Phoenix. Even if I'm wrong about the Hispanic shift in AZ, it's not really going to impact Schweikert's district, or come close to cancelling out how quickly the educated white population in that district is trending left. It went from R+28 in 2012 to R+4.4% in 2020; you're dreaming if you think that district has a prayer of trending red any time soon; it's sprinting left.
Will Hunting
you should be happy, Alabama GOP court just vetoed the 6-1 map they've always had and are demanding a 5-2 map, even though the 6-1 is VRA compliant.
yes the math adds up, but by the same logic, IL should be 10-7 (D), NY should be 16-10 (D), and CA should be 35-17 (D). MA should be 7-2 (D). But that will never happen because the court system is stacked against the GOP.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 01-26-2022 at 01:57 PM.
It's a GOP Court but this happened because ol' Doug Jones refused to turn in his pink slip on Trump's top picks for the Alabama district court so Trump had to nominate more moderate judges for AL
I also say there's almost no chance this ruling gets upheld by SCOTUS, so at least way until the appeal gets heard to start complaining.
Also by all means show me how a map gets drawn in CA with 17 Trump districts or MA with 2 Trump districts
Last edited by Will Hunting; 01-28-2022 at 07:31 AM.
Also 26% of AL's population is black, and 2/7 is 28%. Like it or not, this is the correct ruling. There's a sufficiently compact amount of black population in AL to draw two majority black VAP districts
One of your main flaws intellectually is confirmation bias. You seize a little too much on too little at times, and miss wider pictures.
Right wing propaganda here in this country demonizes Hispanics. I can provide dozens of examples with a very short search.
Can you explain how the party of rich white men is going to overcome that?
The radical right has stopped even pretending not to be racist, yet you think this will somehow raise the fascist evangelical protestant party's appeal among the catholic people they are bigoted against?
Also in great news, the Hochulmander is coming!
It's already been leaked that Malliotakis's district is getting murked; she'll be in a district that's Biden +10 similar to the one shown below.
Expect a 23-3 or a 22-4 map.
If you're mad that the Dems are finally fighting fire with fire, by all means, call your GOP congressman and ask them to support a federal gerrymandering ban.
You can't even make this up.
(shrugs) only you would have an issue with the fact that the fascist party consists of white men, and is run by rich white men for their benefit.
I think current partisan lean with the 538 map is more accurate than just going by 2020 Biden vs Trump numbers. In Nov. 2020 Biden's polled approval rating was averaged around 55% and Trump's was around 41%. Now Biden's is at 40.2% and Trump's is at 42.4%. The generic national ballot has shifted eight points rightward since the general election, from D+4 to R+4 in the time since.It's a GOP Court but this happened because ol' Doug Jones refused to turn in his pink slip on Trump's top picks for the Alabama district court so Trump had to nominate more moderate judges for AL
I also say there's almost no chance this ruling gets upheld by SCOTUS, so at least way until the appeal gets heard to start complaining.
Also by all means show me how a map gets drawn in CA with 17 Trump districts or MA with 2 Trump districts
As far as the SCOTUS goes, there's about a 50/50 chance they don't take up the Alabama case. If they do the 6-1 map will survive, if they don't the GOP will have to draw up some sort of 5-1-1 or 5-2 (worst case scenario) map.
It is crazy to think that all of that was caused by Trump stupidly appointing Jeff Sessions from his senate seat to AG where he was incompetent. Equally stupid for the GOP to nominate an alleged pedophile to replace him.
I'm not mad that the Dems are fighting fire with fire in IL/NY as much as that they're doing dirty double standards by fighting fire with fire in their states but fighting fire with ice water in the GOP states, (OH/NC/GA and possibly Florida if the DeSantis map gets proposed).
You realize the GOP is also suing over the maps in Dem controlled states, right?
If the lower court ruling holds it would be solid 5-2. The court basically said there needs to be two majority black AL districts and AL isn't like Mississippi where you can draw a majority black swing district because of how Republican the white population is; any majority black district in AL would be safe D.
iirc there were situations where mitch said the pink slip and confirmed judges anyway from other statesIt's a GOP Court but this happened because ol' Doug Jones refused to turn in his pink slip on Trump's top picks for the Alabama district court so Trump had to nominate more moderate judges for AL
I also say there's almost no chance this ruling gets upheld by SCOTUS, so at least way until the appeal gets heard to start complaining.
Also by all means show me how a map gets drawn in CA with 17 Trump districts or MA with 2 Trump districts
Not Illinois. They will sue in NY. I don't know if there's much to do in CA, because, like you've said in the past, a majority of the right-leaning population lives within blue areas in California, and while they are moving out to other states in droves, none of those trends help the GOP in California.
"Iden y politics!"
" ing white men!"
Same way your democrat party gets the black population to vote for them...we're gonna lie to them. When Hillary Clinton can call black people super predators and yet they still vote democrat or Biden says Obama is articulate and clean like he was shocked a black men could be that. I assume its easy to dupe minorities.
That was for circuit court appointments; kept it in place for the district courts which is where this case was heard.
Theyre going to sue in NY and they’re already suing in OR and MD.
Maryland is a bad gerrymander since it's definitely plausible to draw 2 GOP seats, especially since the western panhandle is very right-leaning and represented by a Democrat currently. Oregon... not so sure what they want? Eastern Oregon to be cracked in half and to have 2 seats? New York definitely has the land (unlike, as you've said before, Massachusetts) to have at least 7 or 8 solid red seats.
California and Illinois won't change because CA was drawn by an independent commission and already approved and in IL you have Pritzker who carefully made sure the map was compliant with the state and federal laws before approving. Even though cracking Chicago in ten directions is re ed, splits up communities and is a nasty gerrymander objectively speaking.
Just wondering something about CA...... is it possible to draw a #Blue52 52-0 map there?
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