Make your election predictions here

[Findog]

McCain will win the following states, electoral votes noted, that Bush carried in both 2000 and 2004:

Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arkansas 6
Idaho 4
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Nebraska 5
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
Tennessee 11
Utah 5
Wyoming 3

McCain will probably win the following states that Bush carried in both 2000 and 2004:

Arizona 10
Missouri 11
Texas 34
West Virginia 5
South Dakota 3
North Dakota 3
Georgia 15
Indiana 11
South Carolina 8
North Carolina 15
Montana 3

That gives him a total of 208, needing 62 to clinch 270.

Obama will win the following states that Kerry and Gore carried:

California 55
Connecticut 7
D.C. 3
Hawaii 4
Illinois 21
Iowa 7*
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 12
Minnesota 10
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 3
Washington 11
Delaware 3
New Jersey 15
New York 31
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 21
Wisconsin 10

* Bush won in 2004

Obama will probably win the following states:

Michigan 17
New Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5

Bush took New Mexico in 2004 and New Hampshire in 2000. This gives Obama 264 electoral votes, needing only 6 to clinch.

That leaves the following five swing states, carried by Bush in both 2000 and 2004, that will decide the election:

Nevada 5
Colorado 9
Ohio 20
Virginia 13
Florida 27

Here is what to keep in mind when watching on election night:

∙ Early signs of McCain victory: GOP pick up of Pennsylvania or Michigan

∙ Early signs of Obama victory: Dem pick up of Virginia, Florida or Ohio

∙ Florida, Ohio and Virginia will be called earlier in the evening. If Obama picks up any one one of these three states, then he is in the driver's seat for the Presidency.

∙ If McCain sweeps these three states, the election results will hinge on Colorado and Nevada being called later on, assuming no new pickups for either party.

∙ Palin will help McCain consolidate certain states that have traditionally been safe GOP but are still in play for Obama. This will help McCain avoid having to expend money and resources to hold onto safe GOP states.

∙ Obama will not be outspent, has a far superior grassroots organization, and has run a very focused and disciplined campaign. There is substantial
reason to believe that the prospect of a black President will lead to historically record-high turnout in the African-American community. In
addition, his campaign doesn't make many mistakes and has largely managed to avoid shooting themselves in the foot. The race is his to lose. The dynamics and enthusiasm gap favor Obama at this point.

∙ McCain can only win by using Idiocracy-style politics and making this about personalities instead of issues. The Republicans have had great success winning elections this way in the past, so McCain can't be counted out yet.

[Mr. Body]

Pretty much agree.

Michigan is a dodgy state.

If Obama wins Florida, Virginia or Ohio it is over.

Florida will be interesting. I can see it shifting for Obama, but McCain will likely win it.

If he can't, he'll need Colorado and NM. New Mex looks well in hand.

We'll see.

[Gino]

Interesting that you assume that Obama will "probably" win Michigan but not Ohio. This is probably due to the fact that Kerry and Gore carried this state.

However, Kerry won Michigan by 160k. Bush won Ohio by 130k. Im not sure if this state should be counted in Obama's column quite yet.

And what about New Hampshire? Kerry carried this state by nine thousand votes, and this state is famous for being partial to John McCain.

Maybe we should take away those 21 from Obama.

And how do you know that Obama WILL win PA, Wisconsin and Minnesota?

Kerry won PA by 140k.
Minnesota by 110k.
Wisconsin by 11k (no typo).

I would consider all three of these swing states, with PA the only one I would speculate that McCain/Palin couldn't pull off.

And I don't think youre reasons why Obama will win versus why McCain will win are very fair either.

I could say if Obama wins it will be due to glitz and glamour and if McCain wins it will because of his unprecedented record of integrity and promise to kill outrageous government spending.

btw - I didn't see your "prediction", just your account of where the electoral map stands today and which states you considered swing states.

Also Findog, didn't you say last week that the Palin pick was a mistake and that VP choices "Can't help you, they can only hurt you"?

[whottt]

Interesting that you assume that Obama will "probably" win Michigan but not Ohio. This is probably due to the fact that Kerry and Gore carried this state.

However, Kerry won Michigan by 160k. Bush won Ohio by 130k. Im not sure if this state should be counted in Obama's column quite yet.

And what about New Hampshire? Kerry carried this state by nine thousand votes, and this state is famous for being partial to John McCain.

Maybe we should take away those 21 from Obama.

And how do you know that Obama WILL win PA, Wisconsin and Minnesota?

Kerry won PA by 140k.
Minnesota by 110k.
Wisconsin by 11k (no typo).

I would consider all three of these swing states, with PA the only one I would speculate that McCain/Palin couldn't pull off.

And I don't think youre reasons why Obama will win versus why McCain will win are very fair either.

I could say if Obama wins it will be due to glitz and glamour and if McCain wins it will because of his unprecedented record of integrity and promise to kill outrageous government spending.

btw - I didn't see your "prediction", just your account of where the electoral map stands today and which states you considered swing states.

Also Findog, didn't you say last week that the Palin pick was a mistake and that VP choices "Can't help you, they can only hurt you"?

Based on the polling data I am seeing in the next batch of Electoral maps Ohio won't even be in play anymore...it'll be solidly red.



I am looking at state polls, Washington ing State is about to be in play.



Seems all the attacks on old people, uneducated people, and Palin's kids, are pissing tons of people off.