Hollinger Scouting Report Yao - Much fewer minutes

[Indazone]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/playe...?playerId=1722

2007-08 season: If you look at the average career length for NBA players, it increases with height up to 6-11, drops slightly for 7-footers and decreases sharply at heights taller than that. The reason why isn't rocket science -- oversized centers have incredible difficulty staying healthy because of the pounding their legs and ankles take in an NBA season.

Yao is the latest example, having played only 57, 48 and 55 games over the past three years, respectively. In his case, there's a second factor as well -- the grueling schedule the Chinese national team has built for him in the summer. Now that the Beijing Olympics are over, it's time for the 28-year-old Yao to put his foot down and say that's enough. Without rest in the summer, his lower extremities simply can't absorb the wear that his 7-6, 310-pound frame inflicts on them during the season.

Even before the injury, Yao was having an off year by his standards, losing nearly six points off his 40-minute scoring rate while his TS% dropped as well. He seemed to have difficulty adjusting to Rick Adelman's offense early in the season, and when he finally started playing his best basketball, a stress fracture in his left foot cropped up and ended his season.

One reason his numbers were down was because he was playing out high so much more often. Yao took 92 long 2-pointers last season, compared to just 26 a year earlier, and considering he made only 31.5 percent of them this probably wasn't a good thing. He actually shot better in the immediate basket area than the previous two seasons; he just had the ball there less often.

Even with his "off" year Yao was still an impressive offensive force, finishing third among centers in usage rate, 12th in TS% and fifth in PER. But here's my favorite stat -- the 7-6 guy shot 85.0 percent from the line, the best mark among NBA centers and miles ahead of most of his teammates (Aaron Brooks, at 85.7 percent, was the only Rocket to beat him). He will almost certainly go down as the tallest player in history to regularly attempt his team's technical-foul free throws.

Scouting report: Yao is an imposing force on the blocks thanks to an unstoppable right-handed jump hook that he can convert from several feet away from the basket. Because of his height the shot is virtually unblockable, and he also has a nice baseline counter move that he uses from the left block if people overplay the hook.

Yao isn't just a big lug though -- he can shoot turnarounds to about 12 feet and is an outstanding foul shooter. He'd get to the line more often if officials didn't legalize anything short of murder by opposing defenders. But as with Shaquille O'Neal his sheer size makes him a difficult player to officiate and Lilliputian opponents tend to get the benefit of the doubt.

Though Yao's size is a tremendous asset around the basket, he can be a defensive liability in pick-and-roll situations or when he's forced to cover big men who have perimeter skills. He isn't quick off the floor and is thus only an average rebounder and shot-blocker, but he runs the floor reasonably well and makes a consistent effort in the half court.

2008-09 outlook: If his country isn't going to take care of Yao, then the Rockets need to redouble their efforts. With the talent on board there isn't any question about this team making the playoffs or earning a high seed, so the goal should be to preserve Yao so that he can play extended minutes when Houston needs him most -- in the playoffs.

With that in mind, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Houston cut his minutes substantially this season. If that doesn't work, and if China insists on having him spend future summers competing in insignificant tournaments in far-flung places, then the Rockets may need to resort to more draconian measures -- like telling him not to bother showing up until Christmas, for instance.

Hopefully it will never come to that. He's one of the most talented players of his generation, and when healthy he rivals Dwight Howard and Tim Duncan as the best center in the game. But the "when healthy" part is getting increasingly problematic.

"When Healthy"

[diego]

the gruelling, torturing chinese basketball federation eh?

i'm tired of this BS. its the gruelling NBA season that hurts Yao, not his national team. I'm 100% sure he's had more injuries playing NBA basketball than on his national team, and that if you adjust the time proportionally logs more minutes there.

For that matter, i'm sure there are more torn ligaments in the US than china, even if you dont adjust for their nearly quadruple population

I understand not wanting to go down from 82 games, but they can easily make them 40min, and its a change that would help everybody.