Looking at the posts last 10-14 days:
All is negative in Spurs land these days and it goes beyond injuries and moves of other teams that tend to be over-blown in importance (Mourning at this stage is not a R. Wallace before that is brought up).
Lets all be realistic we have a 40 and 12 team that is very da*# good. We are rooting for a team that has lost 1 friggin game at home all friggin year (how spoiled is that?) and has relatively few road games left this year after a probable win tonight in its quest for the top seed.
One other reality is who could of honestly thought we would (for all practical purposes catch the Suns with still about 30 games to go for both teams?
Stay optimistic - why the real reason is that Manu and Parker are both proving to better than last year. At different times both Manu and Parker have been absolutely the best player on the court in big games. How often until this year could you say that about anyone other than Tim in his era.
Ok, Duncan he has been struggling some, but all is relative, still near top in blocks, rebounds and any measure of effectiveness statistically during time on floor. Most importantly, it is my strong belief that Duncan will be there again strong by the end of the season.
Plus unlike last year's glaring weakness = we have a darn good reserve PG, and at least two other fairly reliable scorers off the bench in Brown and Barry. We still have one of the best shut down men in the game "Pirrahna Bowen".
We have Horry, Rose, Massenburg and yes we even have Rasho who is better than all but a handful of centers in the game, at least defensively.
Finally, we have the coach that we all sometime diss, Pop, yet the NBA players rated him number uno.
Again, lets stay positive - if the Spurs shake things up so be it, but if not, this team is more than primed as is to contend and still win the championship, this year, next year and beyond.
MadDoc
very nice positive post Doc.
it's championship or bust, we hold the team to a higher standard than most fans in the nba do with theirs these days...but it's natural for fans to bch/moan about the perceived weakest links.
Pop will get the guys rested. i'm just praying for health, and our Spurs will be there in the end.
whining is 2nd biggest past time in SA, slightly behind driving through low water crossings during flash floods
They are 34-18 at this point in 2003-'04 and 36-16 in 2003-'03. So there's nothing to worry about..
Now it's all about angst at 41-12.
"36-16 in 2003-'03"
That season is the measure I use to measure last year's and this year's Spurs, since there's enough common players to make the measurement reasonable.
Looking only at the overall record is not sufficient, it's actually pretty dumb, but ignorance is bliss, just ask the Plant-in-Chief-of-the-US.
The 04 and 05 teams are not nearly as tough on the road as the 03 Spurs. And if you look at road records after 1 Jan and against top teams, you see just how tough and dominant the 03 Spurs were vs the 04 and 05 Spurs.
btw, in 03, it was at the all-star break where Manu's ankle, badly sprained in the 02 Worlds, allowed him to start being Manu. "the rest is history". If was also at the ASB, where the 04 Pistons pickedup Rasheed, which the consensus has put the Pistons over the top.
Pointing out such (inconveniant) facts is not whining. Whining is ing about "talent", "no second star", "Pop/RC/small-market sucks", "Rasho/Brent/Devin/Tony sucks" which you NEVER see me doing.
So, yes, I have real angst at 41-12. These Spurs aren't very tough where toughness is most tested, on the road.
Suns continue to play consistently well, and Pistons have begun playing Championship ball again. The Rockets are gelling, scoring, and playing very well.
So what could be 41 -1 2 angst be based on? This:
Road Record after 1 Jan against Playoff Teams
============================================
Jan
Sun 2 @ Sacramento L 81 - 86
Sat 15 @ Houston L 67 - 73
Fri 21 @ Phoenix W 128 - 123
Sun 23 @ Sacramento W 103 - 73
Mon 31 @ Seattle W 103 - 84
Feb
Thu 3 @ L.A. Lakers W 103 - 91
Wed 9 @ Washington L 87 - 95
Sun 13 @ Miami L 92 - 96
============================================
Spurs 4 - 4, a MUCH more important measurement than 41 - 12.
Road Games remaining against Playoff Teams
=================================
Feb
Mon 28 @ Cleveland
Mar
Wed 9 @ Phoenix (2nd of B2B)
Sun 20 @ Detroit (Tim doesn't like afternoon games)
Wed 23 @ Indiana (playoffs? but they usually play us tough)
Apr
Thu 7 @ Dallas (2nd of B2B)
Mon 18 @ Memphis
============================================
Spurs best possible road record agasint playoff teams: 10 - 4
So what's your prediction?
Will these Spurs toughen up on the road as indication of playoff readiness?
Well there is a variety of things that could happen.
1. The Spurs of the past two years got it going on the road in the latter part of the season. They beat the best of the best on the road like Dallas, Lakers, Sacramento,etc. That could happen this year and that is a good sign that we will be ready for the playoffs. Our current road record isnt bad but its not great. We do need to be more consistent.
2. We could continue to struggle on the road and end up with just an average road record. This does worry me a little, but the Pistons of last year ended the season with a 23-18 road record. Not awful, but definitely not great. In the playoffs, they went 6-4 and still won the championship.
So no matter what our road record is, we shouldn't list that as a definite problem in the playoffs.
"Pistons of last year ended the season with a 23-18 road record"
Stop looking at overall (road) record, but only the road record:
1) after 1 Jan,
2) against playoff teams.
In the case of the 04 Pistons, the Pistons team and season was significantly impacted by the arrival of Rasheed at the ASB, as was the 03 Spurs with the 100% health of Manu at ASB.
Now come back with the Pistons 04 road record in those constraints.
Oh, please. You rip the Spurs when their long distance shooting isn't on. Seattle deserves the SAME treatment, not your excuses.
You can get yourself in trouble comparing this team too much with the last Spurs' Championship team (2002-03). David Robinson was on that team.
This team has it's own look and feel. Much better passing and movement. Not as good defensively as in 2002-03, especially when they go "small".
The Spurs have the luxury of finishing the remaining 29 games with 17 at SBC Center and 12 on the road. Unless one or more of the Big Three has to sit due to injury, 60 Wins + is the easy projection.
I agree that Spurs fans should relax a bit and enjoy watching the growth of the team. Securing home court advantage should be important considering they are 24-1 at home. It will not be easy as several West teams could get hot and do the Spurs in.
It's not "igorance" to be a little more grounded emotionally...particularly when it comes to the Spurs and not trying to drive through high-water crossings.(hilarious comment GoSpurs21 )
we better go 30-0
"You rip the Spurs when their long distance shooting isn't on."
oh please, get your ing info straight, as you struggle to understand what my observations are.
I complain about the Spurs when they shoot around, or under 40%, (league worst is 41% (Hornets)), vs Spurs avg of 47%. The Sonics shot a very solid 49%, equalling Heat's league best, and above their own FG% avg, and did solidly in all stats but 3G. So there's nothing to complain about the quality of Sonics game in the GS loss.
I never complain about a Spurs loss if the Spurs game quality were where the Sonics was vs GS. Which is why I didn't complain about the Spurs loss @POR, since it was a "good" loss, the Spurs played a very solid game, and it took a season-best, extraordinary effort from POR, and esp Miles' 17 4th qtr pts, to beat the Spurs.
Last edited by boutons; 02-17-2005 at 01:36 PM.
I love this team, just like I love every Spurs team I've watched since I began following the Spurs. I've enjoyed watching them carve our their own iden y as a team (still a work in progress). I've enjoyed wathcing guys like Manu and Parker really step their games up and complement Duncan even more. , I've even enjoyed watching Rasho throw up those ugly ass hook shots he has! What I want to see the rest of the way is for Duncan to step his game up and lead this team on a 29 game run that puts us as the #1 seed in the West, to me that opens the door to the championship. I don't want to go into the WCF with the Suns as the #1 seed, that worries me.
respect the 'fro
Let's see, in the playoffs, split on the road and win at home? Sounds like a championship to me.
Exactly. I know its really easy to compare those teams, and I do it all the time, but we do need to realize that this team is different from most Spurs teams in the last several years. We may stay good on the road and get better, or we may not. And Boutons, I was using the Pistons as an example that you dont have to have a great road record to win the championship.
Our road record after January is a good indicator to look at but I think the root variable in our playoff fate starts and ends with Tim Duncan.
It's no secret that Tim hasn't been healthy for much of the year and that's a huge concern. On the flip side, the team has matured and they've managed to put together the best start in franchise history with Tim averaging career lows. Bottom line, if Tim can get healthy and return to form for the playoffs, I really like our chances. If he continues playing at the current level, our le chances are considerably diminished.
Spurs averages in:
Season...Asst..Opp Asst..Diff...TOs
2004-05 22.6 ... 16.4 .. +6.2 13.6
2003-04 20.4 ... 17.3 .. +3.1 14.7
2002-03 20.0 ... 19.0 .. +1.0 15.8
2001-02 20.0 ... 18.8 .. +1.2 14.4
2000-01 21.7 ... 19.7 .. +2.0 14.0
1999-00 22.2 ... 20.3 .. +1.9 15.0
1998-99 22.0 ... 18.8 .. +3.2 15.2
Current Season
Championship Season
Solid, the numbers you present are a good indicator of how great these current Spurs are but again, it's all about the compe ion. The figures in both '01 and '04 are very respectable yet we lost to better Laker teams during those years.
Boutons makes a valid point when speaking of road records against playoff teams. You have to beat the best to be the best. Averages consider all teams including the mediocre and the bottom feeders and can be misleading.
"You can get yourself in trouble comparing this team too much with the last Spurs' Championship team (2002-03)"
I'm in no trouble, thanks for your concern.
I'm not comparing the two Spurs teams directly. I'm measuring each team, as a "black box" (not team style, not player-to-player, etc), in terms of its results as a team in the season against its playoff compe ion.
The 03 Spurs were 7-5 on the playoff road.
The 04 Pistons were 6 - 4 on the playoff road.
The 04 Spurs, up 2-0 in the series, then went 0-3 on the road vs Lakers.
I am not claiming that my metric "road record after 1 Jan against playoff teams" is in any way infallible, but it's a of a lot more meaningful than overall record (ie, Nov/Dec is meaningless, non-playoff teams is meaningless), and is a useful way to look at the season results as indication of playoff expectations. It's just not very probable that a team that has mediocre season record on the road against playoff teams will suddenly turn it on and take the le, which requires the champs to win probably 7 - 10 playoff games on the road, out of a total 16 playoff wins for the le.
eg, I used to pound on Poohcer last spring about the Top3 EC teams, DET, NJ, IND, going a perfect 0 - 12 on the road against the top4 WC teams. But DET + Rasheed ended up winning it all.
Yes, TwoHandJam, the Spurs defense had varying degrees of effectiveness over the years, also. I chose the Asst. Opp. Asst. Differential and Turnovers categories because those are areas that make this Spurs team distinctive to other Spurs teams. The Differential number shows that against all present-day compe ion, they are stellar.
I just cannot tell you how important that TO number is and it seems to be getting lower as the season progresses. When they don't focus on 1 hub of the offense, the TOs go down, plus this is a truly great passing ballclub.
Heard around here: The sky is falling. Trade everyone. Duncan is dogging it. Fire Pop. Bring in five superstars to fix the obvious failings of this team.
Did I miss anything? Idiots!
That anomaly can be mostly attributed to 2 things:
1) Karl "Laker glue" Malone went down.
2) Series was officiated in such a way that a lot less handchecking and reaching in was allowed to the Lakers when they tried to pack the paint. The Lakers were really blindsided by this since the refs allowed them to be very physical with our guards for the remainder of the series yet in the Detroit series, a foul was called almost every time a Piston drove the lane.
Forget about overall stats. They have the same problem as overall record. They include inflated numbers for the Spurs vs non-playoff teams, where the overall numbers get padded up.
Run the same stats, but only for Spurs games vs playoff teams.
Perhaps later, unless you have time, but why the discounting of non-playoff teams? Isn't the Spurs performance against "non-playoff" slugs an area of major heartburn and consternation for you? I realize you are trying to make a playoff point here, but why the de-emphasis on record and also-rans, after all your other posts? Just curious.
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