Some good observations in there.
It's hard for me to ever fully get behind a Duncan for DPOY campaign because he always has been inconsistent in terms of energy on defense. When the Spurs suddenly become a better defensive team each season, it corresponds to exactly when Duncan starts dialing up his intensity.
While Duncan's defense has been sub par this season, it's not as bad as it was to start the 2006-07 season. That year, Duncan was basically aloof on defense for the first few months. He looked horrible on defense and it took Brian Cook schooling him and then the Dwight Howard alleyoop for Duncan to wake up. But once he dialed it up, the Spurs became a lockdown defensive team and Duncan gradually upped his defense to where he became a monster defender in the playoffs.
Last season, he came out of the gates playing really good defense. He helped the Spurs get to 17-3 but then he went through a midseason slump defensively before playing good but not great defense in the playoffs.
This season, Duncan is off to a slow defensive start but I fully expect him to turn it around at some point. For him, it's not a matter of losing a step. Right now he's simply not contesting shots he always contests when he's locked in and giving his all defensively. I don't know if it's trying to avoid fouls, trying to conserve energy or what but he's often right in position ... he's just not finishing the plays off with maximum effort. But I've seen this plenty of times before from Duncan and he always eventually relents to Pop's nagging and steps it up.
Now with Parker and Ginobili out, it'll be interesting to see what Duncan does. Will he go all out and try to be a hero to get the Spurs some wins? Will he give good but not great effort and try to win but not kill himself to win? I'd probably prefer the latter but you may see the return of Duncan's defense earlier than expected seeing as the Spurs will face desperate times.

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