Manu Is The Top Clutch Performer According To Forbes.com

[jemanuel]

Yahoo Sports

Primetime bargains

By Peter J. Schwartz, Forbes.com Dec 4, 12:30 pm EST



In the National Basketball Association, superstar status is given to those who elevate their play in a game’s closing minutes, when the outcome is still in doubt.

It’s often forgotten that Michael Jordan, Larry Bird and Bill Russell, all revered as all-time greats, missed more shots during their careers than they made. Their legacies are built largely on the reputation of carrying their team to victory in close and decisive games. Jordan led the Chicago Bulls to six les, Bird brought home three championships for the Boston Celtics and Russell captured 10 les for the Celtics.

Since the NBA now imposes a stiff penalty of one dollar for each dollar a team’s payroll exceeds the league’s tax threshold (amounting to roughly 61 percent of projected revenues, or $71 million this season), signing clutch performers to bargain deals provides valuable breathing room and is a priority for general managers who assemble team rosters. Clutch players can generate millions of dollars of profits for a team because of the extra cash playoff games generate from tickets, merchandise and advertising.
Ten years ago, during the height of the Michael Jordan era, Chicago Bulls-emblazoned products accounted for close to 40 percent of NBA-licensed-product sales. So far this year the Bulls – which haven’t produced an all-star since Jordan – have accounted for just 3.8 percent of total sales, according to industry tracker SportsOneSource.

To determine the best clutch players for the buck, we compared player statistics to pay from last season. Our survey includes only players who averaged five or more points in the fourth quarter and hit at least 40 percent of their shots when it mattered most (during the last five minutes and in overtime, with neither team ahead by more than five points). These “clutch time” stats were compiled by 82games.com, an online leader in analyzing the NBA.

Scoring and shooting percentage carried the most weight in our formula, but we also accounted for assists, rebounds and blocks to get a more complete picture of player performance down the stretch of close games. Salaries were measured against those of players with similar years of experience in the league, since pay limits based on longevity are stipulated by the collective bargaining agreement between the league and Players’ Association.

The best bargain guard was San Antonio’s Manu Ginobili, who led the Spurs in fourth-quarter scoring last season with 5.2 points per game – a full point better than all-star teammates Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Ginobili shot a league-high 57.4 percent from the field during the last five minutes of close games and was paid $9 million.

Third ranked among guards was Kobe Bryant, who lived up to his reputation as a money player last year, shooting 44.8 percent late in the fourth quarter. His downside: a $19.5 million salary that was 2.5 times the pay of other players who have been in the league for at least 10 years.

LeBron James’ performance in late-game situations proved so superior to other forwards that he ranks as the best bargain at the position, despite his $13 million paycheck last year. If James’ clutch time scoring were grossed up to 48 minutes (the length of a full game), he would have averaged 56 points – tops among those who played in at least 15 games that weren’t decided until the last five minutes.

Orlando’s Hedu Turkoglu ranked second among forwards, thanks to finishing seventh league-wide in fourth-quarter scoring, while earning 13 percent less pay than his peers. Turkoglu also hit two memorable game-winning shots last season, including a three-pointer that beat Boston, the eventual league champions, as time expired.

Top by position:

G. Manu Ginobili
G. Steve Nash
F. LeBron James
F. Hedo Turkoglu
C. Al Jefferson

FORBES.COM

Guards
No. 1 Manu Ginobili
San Antonio Spurs

Clutch-time shooting percentage*: 57.4
2007-08 pay: $9.1 million
Age/years in league: 31/6

Ginobili was the NBA's most accurate shooter in the final five minutes of undecided games last year.
*The percentage of shots that were made during the last five minutes of the fourth quarter and in overtime last season when neither team was ahead by more than five points.

[pawe]

Good article. I wonder where Horry circa 05 would end up in that list.

[honestfool84]

sweet.

[timvp]

As much as I like Manu, I don't consider regular season clutch very important. The regular season for the Spurs is more like preseason compared to other teams.

Manu last year in the playoffs was sub-30% field goal shooting in the clutch. In 2007, he was also sub-30%. He was actually sub-20% up until the final game against the Cavs. IIRC, he was about 35% in the 2006 playoffs.

Manu was certifiably clutch his rookie season, his second season and in the 2005 playoffs. But since then, his reputation of being the master clutch player has been largely based on his reputation.

Hopefully this is the year Manu comes back to form as the clutch playoff performer he has the potential to be every year. I blame some of it on Pop because in the last three playoffs, he's run the same damn high pick-n-roll play or isolation play for Manu and everyone in the world knows Manu is going to try the one-handed crossover move or a step back three.

[peskypesky]

As much as I like Manu, I don't consider regular season clutch very important. The regular season for the Spurs is more like preseason compared to other teams.

Manu last year in the playoffs was sub-30% field goal shooting in the clutch. In 2007, he was also sub-30%. He was actually sub-20% up until the final game against the Cavs. IIRC, he was about 35% in the 2006 playoffs.

ouch!

[jemanuel]

arrrrghhh!!!

[mrspurs]

It doesnt matter what anyone says to me. Manu isnt a choke artist. He may have his bad games. But for the most part he has always delivered, even while playing hurt.

[Brazil]

Do we have this kind of stats during playoffs ?

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

As much as I like Manu, I don't consider regular season clutch very important. The regular season for the Spurs is more like preseason compared to other teams.

Manu last year in the playoffs was sub-30% field goal shooting in the clutch. In 2007, he was also sub-30%. He was actually sub-20% up until the final game against the Cavs. IIRC, he was about 35% in the 2006 playoffs.

Manu was certifiably clutch his rookie season, his second season and in the 2005 playoffs. But since then, his reputation of being the master clutch player has been largely based on his reputation.

The whole league is based off of reputation lol. If the defense Kobe played when he was 24 is what gets him all NBA defensive first team appearances it makes sense that the clutch play from Manu in 2005 is why 2008 Manu is considered clutch. I still think, that when healthy, even though he's one of my least favorite Spurs, he is the best SG in basketball behind Wade and Kobe. Just my view.

[DPG21920]

Does no one read the articles I post? I already posted this and then like 5 other people did as well.

[Dex]

I blame some of it on Pop because in the last three playoffs, he's run the same damn high pick-n-roll play or isolation play for Manu and everyone in the world knows Manu is going to try the one-handed crossover move or a step back three.

That's funny. I can just see the play in my head now. It's like it's been burned into the retinas.

Manu either drives into traffic and puts up one of those awkward lofters while trying to draw the foul (which often works) or hop-steps behind the line and puts up the three while trying to draw the foul (which often works).

Something tells me the scouts have that in the notes.

Then again, they probably tell people to try to make Manu drive right, too.

[Extra Stout]

That same article named Hedo Turkoglu as the second-clutchest forward in the NBA, so take it with the entire world's supply of grains of salt.

[nsrammstein]

any article about clutchness that mentions Hedo Turkoglu on it instantly loses its credibility

[dougp]

I was thinking that too guys, but if you read - it's cluch per cost, not overall the most clutch in the game. I wish they'd take into account close games as opposed to people just playing normally. Clutch should be in game determined by less than 4.

[nhan]

I was thinking that too guys, but if you read - it's cluch per cost, not overall the most clutch in the game. I wish they'd take into account close games as opposed to people just playing normally. Clutch should be in game determined by less than 4.

They define "clutch" as, "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points".

[dougp]

They define "clutch" as, "4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points".

Guess I read over that - whoops!

[m33p0]

That same article named Hedo Turkoglu as the second-clutchest forward in the NBA, so take it with the entire world's supply of grains of salt.

he did win alot of close games for the magic last season.

[ClingingMars]

in other news, the Thunder suck.

-Mars

[wildbill2u]

As much as I like Manu, I don't consider regular season clutch very important. The regular season for the Spurs is more like preseason compared to other teams.

Manu last year in the playoffs was sub-30% field goal shooting in the clutch. In 2007, he was also sub-30%. He was actually sub-20% up until the final game against the Cavs. IIRC, he was about 35% in the 2006 playoffs.

Manu was certifiably clutch his rookie season, his second season and in the 2005 playoffs. But since then, his reputation of being the master clutch player has been largely based on his reputation.

Hopefully this is the year Manu comes back to form as the clutch playoff performer he has the potential to be every year. I blame some of it on Pop because in the last three playoffs, he's run the same damn high pick-n-roll play or isolation play for Manu and everyone in the world knows Manu is going to try the one-handed crossover move or a step back three.

What I didn't see in the analysis is any mention of free throw shooting, an important part of clutch scoring in the final minutes because teams will alway try to foul the player who has the ball in his hands in game winning situations. Shaq can't be a 'clutch' player because of that flaw in his game.

But Manu is pure gold in those situations with nerves of steel. If he gets fouled, his FT percentage is terrific and he frequently gets into an "And One" situation where he can score three.

We don't have anyone else on the team who is more likely to score in clutch time. And that's why Pop puts the ball in Manu's hands instead of TD or TP.

[kace]

What I didn't see in the analysis is any mention of free throw shooting, an important part of clutch scoring in the final minutes because teams will alway try to foul the player who has the ball in his hands in game winning situations. Shaq can't be a 'clutch' player because of that flaw in his game.

But Manu is pure gold in those situations with nerves of steel. If he gets fouled, his FT percentage is terrific and he frequently gets into an "And One" situation where he can score three.

We don't have anyone else on the team who is more likely to score in clutch time. And that's why Pop puts the ball in Manu's hands instead of TD or TP.

let's look at the numbers in PO in money time (from 82 games.com) :

in PO 2008 :

Tim: 50 % in FG (50 % in FT)

Manu: 28.6 % in FG (77.8 % in FT)

Tony: 50 % in FG (83.3 % in FT)

in PO 2007

Tim: 42.9 % in FG (68.8 % in FT)

Manu: 27.3 % in FG (84 % in FT)

Tony: 58.3 % in FG (100 % in FT)

in PO 2006

Tim: 37 % in FG (69.2 % in FT)

Manu: 36.4 % in FG (78.9 % in FT)

Tony: 45 % in FG (70 % in FT)


Tim is decent/good overall and tony shoot at twice the % of manu's FG in the last two PO and even better in FT %.

[Manufan909]

let's look at the numbers in PO in money time (from 82 games.com) :

in PO 2008 :

Tim: 50 % in FG (50 % in FT)

Manu: 28.6 % in FG (77.8 % in FT)

Tony: 50 % in FG (83.3 % in FT)

in PO 2007

Tim: 42.9 % in FG (68.8 % in FT)

Manu: 27.3 % in FG (84 % in FT)

Tony: 58.3 % in FG (100 % in FT)

in PO 2006

Tim: 37 % in FG (69.2 % in FT)

Manu: 36.4 % in FG (78.9 % in FT)

Tony: 45 % in FG (70 % in FT)


Tim is decent/good overall and tony shoot at almost twice the % of manu's FG in the last two PO and even better in FT %.

Give the ball to Tony!!!

[kace]

Give the ball to Tony!!!

yes, i knew that it was that kind of numbers but i really was impressed when i saw them exactly from 82games.com. sometimes things can be very deceptive.

anyway, for the FT, i'm still more relax when it's manu who shoot them at the end of the game.

[Manufan909]

Does that site also sho FGM-FGA? Cuz if Manu is shooting 4-10 and Tony is 2-3, that's not fair. TP could miss 7 clutch shots and then be only half as good, ya know?

[Brazil]

let's look at the numbers in PO in money time (from 82 games.com) :

in PO 2008 :

Tim: 50 % in FG (50 % in FT)

Manu: 28.6 % in FG (77.8 % in FT)

Tony: 50 % in FG (83.3 % in FT)

in PO 2007

Tim: 42.9 % in FG (68.8 % in FT)

Manu: 27.3 % in FG (84 % in FT)

Tony: 58.3 % in FG (100 % in FT)

in PO 2006

Tim: 37 % in FG (69.2 % in FT)

Manu: 36.4 % in FG (78.9 % in FT)

Tony: 45 % in FG (70 % in FT)


Tim is decent/good overall and tony shoot at twice the % of manu's FG in the last two PO and even better in FT %.

I'm lost I believed Tony was a french choke artist..

[sonic21]

I'm lost I believed Tony was a french choke artist..

he's a choke artist since the 2003 nba finals ; everything he's done after that is not important.