Can The Spurs Beat L.A. In A Seven-Game Series?
By Marc Stein
ESPN.com
You still have to give the Lakers a big edge. I don't think there's any question about that.
They've been the class of the West, and even without Bynum, they probably have the edge. But I've believed all season long and before the season started that the Spurs were the one team that could keep the Lakers out of the Finals.
The biggest issue for San Antonio is health. Manu's latest injury is to his other foot, the one he didn't have offseason surgery on. Duncan had to miss a few games because of his knee. I got to visit him recently and he basically said, "I'm not 100 percent, I know I'm not going to be 100 percent the rest of the year, so I'm going to have to deal with it."
So as well as Parker's playing, Duncan and Ginobili are not going to be 100 percent come the playoffs. So the question is, are they going to be healthy enough to do what they need to do?
It was clear last year. For the Lakers to win that series in five games, Ginobili was probably 50 percent efficiency, or maybe even less. That's how badly he was hurting.
The good thing for the Spurs is they're much deeper than they've been in the past. They're getting production now from Mason, who's really been the best free-agent addition that anyone has made; Bonner; even George Hill, the rookie, has made some contributions. And if they can get Gooden healthy, that was a really nice pickup, because they didn't have another low-post presence that can ease the load on Duncan.
If everyone is healthy or close to it, they probably have the deepest crew they've had maybe in the Duncan era. You can make that case.
The problem is the Lakers are deeper and better, too. Last year, the Lakers didn't have Ariza making the contributions we've seen from him this season. So even without Bynum, you have to make the Lakers the favorite in that series. We'll see if the Spurs' experience can even things out.
Gotta wonder how much even the Spurs experience is a factor being that LA beat SA last year and Mason, Hill, Bonner, and Gooden (4 of top 8 for SA) don't have that experience. And how much time would they have played together before the playoffs?
Ginobili will no doubt play in the postseason but will he be any better than last year?
We've had a lot of close games this year though and all those guys except Gooden were there and played well in those. Especially Mason.
The lack of experience in the Playoffs against the Lakers by Gooden, Mason, Bonner, and Hill could actually help us. These guys may just go out there and play freely without thinking too much about everything. Them mixed with some veterans like TP, TD, Bowen...etc should be pretty good for this team come playoff time.
Experience is good. Talent is good. Health is vital.
We'll see what happens if the Spurs and Lakers meet in the playoffs, but right now, my prediction: Spurs in 3.
I think you mean spurs in 4 a round is seven games.
With a totally healthy, vintage Manu and Duncan playing on good knees the Spurs can match up with the Lakers, even if they have Bynum. Looking unlikely the Spurs will come in fully loaded though.
i think you didnt pick up on the sacrcasim....
We all know it's gonna be an uphill battle this year. We do have a chance, but its gonna be tough.
W/O a healthy line up NO CHANCE.
Well Gooden was in the finals in 2007 so he has experience, but yes the experience factor won't be as much of an advantage for SA as last year.
But there have been so many changes to each team when you factor in injuries, roster moves, and experience that basing it off 2008 is illogical, only thing to base this series off is the 2009 season, so currently LA has the edge.
The spurs are never the favorites in the post season, so this is not surprising,
nor do I care what these "expert" analysis have to say since they're always
on the lakers, cavs and celtics ...
One thing I know for sure is that if the Spurs make it to the Finals they are your 2009 NBA champs.
There is no way on earth they are losing to the ing Celtics or the Cavs. They will mop the floor with both of these teams. No doubt about that in my mind.
History agrees with you Dr. House.
I agree.
The Celtics have taken a significant step backwards this year, and the Cavaliers are the Cavaliers.
Its Spurs Lakers for the WOrld Championship.
Pretty much like its been for all of the 2000's save for 2006
I haven't seen anything up to this point in the season that leads me to to believe the spurs could beat the lakers in the playoffs.
true but did u see anything in the 2007 regular season, when the cavs swept the spurs 2007? only for the spurs to return the favour in the POs? .....
or when dallas demolished every team on its way to 67 wins in 2007? .... PO's are PO's .... i think lakers are clear favs to win, but spurs have played very well this year with a lot of injury woes. This makes for an exciting post season and I can't wait.
Last year, I expected every game to be a blowout once I knew ginobili was injured, but they played 3 quarters of every game well, but lost 1 decisive quarter each time. This year, with the additional depth, and "iff" ginobili gets to 80% and duncan gets 80% ..... i think it is going to be very intersting.
Also note that only LA and Spurs have a good road record out west. So for both these teams, road wins is not impossible. Which is why this year, the west is a two horse race.
Western W L PCT GB CONF DIV HOME ROAD
L.A. Lakers1p 52 13 0.800 0.0 35-7 11-2 29-4 23-9
San Antonio2 44 21 0.677 8.0 28-11 9-4 23-9 21-12
+ 1
Good points.
SA has a chance to win the west IF every key guy is relatively healthy. MG was really hurting last year with the ankle ligament. It just was not going to get better.
Giving MG all the time he needs before the playoffs to get as healthy as possible is the route they are taking. He will be fresher and not as beat up. The margin for error is probably pretty small for SA this year when it comes to the LAL. If this second ankle issue can clear up before April, they have a shot.
Last year, the Spurs had less depth, less confidence, and an injured Ginobili against LA. Their roster looks better to me, but if Ginobili and Duncan are not playing healthy and well, this year may be like last year.
The Lakers got us good last year, but as mentioned here, we didn't have the depth in a 4th legitimate scorer in Roger Mason and another post presence in Drew Gooden. Mason and Gooden and hopefully a stronger Manu will be the difference this year. Spurs in 5.
It's really about stopping Gasol...Kobe will always get his points. Bruce on Kobe. Duncan on Gasol, Gooden on Bynum.
Of course we can, we always have a chance. I just don't think we actually will.
1. Dallas didn't play well against GS all year - and that's who knocked them out.
2. Dallas ain't LA. From coach, to tradition, to star player. No way LA makes those same mistakes.
A team with Tim Duncan has always a chance against any team in 7 games
Says the guy whose team he backs had already been pre-ordained twice before to win les only to get supremely dumped on in the finals. Oh and look...they're pre-ordained yet again.Dallas ain't LA. From coach, to tradition, to star player. No way LA makes those same mistakes.
3rd times' the charm or is it the NEGATIVE 3PEAT?
I agree.
I just hope he can rise through the tendonosis this year like he's risen through injury before.
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