Let's Get Nerdy: Stats Talk

[Spurminator]

Every good baseball forum needs a stats thread, so let's do this.

Shouldn't bases per plate appearance be a more frequently utilized stat? A lot of people are looking at OPS (OBP+SLG) but, to me, it's a little arbitrary to add the two together.

We already know the flaws of just looking at BA. For me, the perfect offensive statistic would be calculated as:

BPA = (Singles + (Doubles x 2) + (Triples x 3) + (HR x 4) + Walks + HBP + Stolen Bases) / Plate Appearances

[Reggie Miller]

The overall idea seems sound, but I would not count HBP or SB.

1) Most HBP are dependent on the pitcher. There aren't many Don Baylors around these days, not when players make the big bucks. HBP are rare enough that excluding them does not penalize the hitter.

2) Stolen bases are problematic. Would you count bases ruled by the scorer as defensive indifference? What about managers that don't let the players run much, if at all? What about guys who are routinely lifted for pinch runners? Again, stolen bases aren't that common in 21st century baseball, so failing to account for them really doesn't penalize the average hitter.

[K-State Spur]

Every good baseball forum needs a stats thread, so let's do this.

Shouldn't bases per plate appearance be a more frequently utilized stat? A lot of people are looking at OPS (OBP+SLG) but, to me, it's a little arbitrary to add the two together.

We already know the flaws of just looking at BA. For me, the perfect offensive statistic would be calculated as:

BPA = (Singles + (Doubles x 2) + (Triples x 3) + (HR x 4) + Walks + HBP + Stolen Bases) / Plate Appearances

That formula would give you a number that is very very close to OPS (except for the stolen bases, which - to be of any value - would need to take into account the player's stolen base success rate).

But the formula that you present is basically the same as OPS +/- 10 points for any given player depending on how many walks he had (because those count as plate appearances and not at bats, which is the denominator for SLUG%).

OPS is not as good a stat as WARP3, VORP, or win-shares, but the reason it's used so often is because it is a) much better than the traditional 3 stats of AVG/HR/RBI and b) very easy to calculate. You can see what anybody's OPS is just by looking at the back of their baseball card (or baseball-reference.com).

[FromWayDowntown]

OPS seems, to me at least, to involve some arbitrary double counting that has little to do with the relative success of the hitter. A guy who singles gets two bumps in OPS -- one for reaching base and one for the total base that is added to his slugging percentage. This makes (to me at least), the value of the single something more than the value of a walk, all things being equal. I realize that SLG discounts the walk in the denominator, but I've never understood the analytical value of double counting the fact of reaching base and achieving a specific number of bases.

[K-State Spur]

OPS seems, to me at least, to involve some arbitrary double counting that has little to do with the relative success of the hitter. A guy who singles gets two bumps in OPS -- one for reaching base and one for the total base that is added to his slugging percentage. This makes (to me at least), the value of the single something more than the value of a walk, all things being equal. I realize that SLG discounts the walk in the denominator, but I've never understood the analytical value of double counting the fact of reaching base and achieving a specific number of bases.

singles are more valuable than walks in many situations.

a player who goes 4-4 with 4 singles has likely done more to help the team than player who goes 0-0 with 4 walks.