I will go out on a limb: Economic prediction

[RandomGuy]

My gut has been right throughout the last couple of years in a lot of things, but I am normally hesitant to make longer range predictions, but, what the :

Banks, despite the most recent profits, will continue to bleed money as commercial real estate becomes the other shoe to drop. Many larger banks will require more bailouts mid to late 2009, despite the strings, and smaller banks will continue to bite the dust at a fast clip. There is a good chance that the bailouts will be turned into equity shares, and eventually sold for a profit for the taxpayer. The financial sector will be more regulated, stabilize, and come back in about 2 years.

The Fed, to fight deflation, will continue to pursue some inflationary policies, keeping the cost of oil (held in dollars) high.

The overall US economy will shrink this year, probably at a pace faster than most economists will expect. The Economist predicts -3.2%. My gut says more around -4.5%, because I don't think enough of them are factoring in the coming retail and commercial real estate contraction.

Gold will stay high for many of the reasons that oil will, but will drop like a lead ballon in about 2 years. I will find this highly amusing.

Stocks will likely end the year lower than they are now, probably by another, say 750 points.

At some time in the next couple of years, we will have to back off goverment deficit spending.

Republicans will wander around in the wilderness, re-discover fiscal conservatism, and pick up a few seats in congress. They will continue to drive moderates out of the party, harming their long-term viability. I see the GOP marginalized over time, unless they learn to embrace moderates more than they are doing now.

If the US stimulus includes a massive chunk of investment in energy infrastructure, both in transmission and renewables, we will do better than most think over the next 10 years.

Our debt will start catching up with us though. Taxes will have to be raised, and that load will be shared by a lot of people, not just the rich.

I think that we may have actually permanently changed in a minor cultural way. We will start saving more. This will mitigate the credit crunch at some point, because those savings will be used to pay down debt, and pad banks as people deposit actual cash. Credit will get flowing again as this happens.

Our economy will start growing again, very slowly, in late 2010.

After that our economy will stagnate for pretty much the next two decades or so, with flat to minimal growth, as energy gets more expensive, and our economy adjusts.

As energy gets more expensive, manufacturing will move back to the US slowly, because it becomes cheaper to make things here than to ship them from Asia.

I think there is a good chance that there will be a breakthrough green/renewable energy technology within about 5-10 years. This might be a game-changer. Depending on how revolutionary it is, it would have a substantial positive impact on US economic growth.

The price of a barrel of oil will reach a consistant $100 in about 7 years, and $200 in about 13.

[RandomGuy]

China will continue to grow quickly over the next 5 to 10 years, then suffer greatly when the ulative effects of pollution, and an aging population hammers their productivity.

Russia will continue to suck ass, and decline by just about any measure.

North Korea will hang on for a while, and may eventually simply disintegrate within 20 years or so.

Iran's government will moderate somewhat, as the aging zealots of the Revolution die off.

Cuba's communist regime will survive another 10 years or so, and that country will abandon communism, and become rather wealthy in about 25 years.

I don't see the US disintegrating over 40 years as ES does.

[RandomGuy]

Africa will develop fairly well overall, and better than most would think.

[johnsmith]

So you're saying you think the economy will get a little better, taxes will go up, and oil will rise.....................




You should be a 9 news meteoroligist with bold predictions like those.

[RandomGuy]

So you're saying you think the economy will get a little better, taxes will go up, and oil will rise.....................

You should be a 9 news meteoroligist with bold predictions like those.

That was actually what I thought looking over what I wrote. Seemed a bit wishy washy to me too.

I am saying the economy will get worse than most think in the short term, then a little better/stabilize, and then stagnate over the long term.

Oil will get VERY expensive VERY fast, relative to historical trends.

[Wild Cobra]

My gut has been right throughout the last couple of years in a lot of things, but I am normally hesitant to make longer range predictions, but, what the :

Banks, despite the most recent profits, will continue to bleed money as commercial real estate becomes the other shoe to drop. Many larger banks will require more bailouts mid to late 2009, despite the strings, and smaller banks will continue to bite the dust at a fast clip. There is a good chance that the bailouts will be turned into equity shares, and eventually sold for a profit for the taxpayer. The financial sector will be more regulated, stabilize, and come back in about 2 years.

I agree that the failures will likely occur as described. The bailouts will cause farther harm, and I doubt taxpayers will see a profit. Corporate en ies will find a way of keeping profits. Afterall, they are friends of the democrats.

The Fed, to fight deflation, will continue to pursue some inflationary policies, keeping the cost of oil (held in dollars) high.

Probably

The overall US economy will shrink this year, probably at a pace faster than most economists will expect. The Economist predicts -3.2%. My gut says more around -4.5%, because I don't think enough of them are factoring in the coming retail and commercial real estate contraction.

Sounds good

Gold will stay high for many of the reasons that oil will, but will drop like a lead ballon in about 2 years. I will find this highly amusing.

I agree the ballon will pop, but I give it a little longer than the above estimate. Gold value will drop when stocks become preferred again.

Stocks will likely end the year lower than they are now, probably by another, say 750 points.

I'm still stuck on them hitting as low as 6,000 for the Dow. It is looking like I'm wrong. I just have the gut feeling this administration will make a boneheaded policy that has stock owners running.

At some time in the next couple of years, we will have to back off goverment deficit spending.

No , but do you really think this Marxist president and pork friendly congress will do that?

Republicans will wander around in the wilderness, re-discover fiscal conservatism, and pick up a few seats in congress. They will continue to drive moderates out of the party, harming their long-term viability. I see the GOP marginalized over time, unless they learn to embrace moderates more than they are doing now.

I've been saying similar for how long? Except I don't believe driving moderates out will harm them I think that will save them. They at least need to drive out the liberals.

If the US stimulus includes a massive chunk of investment in energy infrastructure, both in transmission and renewables, we will do better than most think over the next 10 years.

Agreed. Any stimulus money spent needs to be on infrastructure. Not social welfare.

Our debt will start catching up with us though. Taxes will have to be raised, and that load will be shared by a lot of people, not just the rich.

A sad fact, and that will be our downfall. As taxes are raised, revenue increases are only temporary. It causes a decline in free market activities, which in turn, reduce revenues to lower levels than they started. As you lose wealth to tax, the tax revenues are reduced!

I think that we may have actually permanently changed in a minor cultural way. We will start saving more. This will mitigate the credit crunch at some point, because those savings will be used to pay down debt, and pad banks as people deposit actual cash. Credit will get flowing again as this happens.

This should be promoted as a concept for people not to spend beyond their means. Debt itself is not bad, as long as it can be managed properly.

Our economy will start growing again, very slowly, in late 2010.

You're more optimistic than I. I don't see it happening that soon with the policies being implemented by this congress and president. I hope you're right about it being that soon.

After that our economy will stagnate for pretty much the next two decades or so, with flat to minimal growth, as energy gets more expensive, and our economy adjusts.

I disagree here too, unless this president destroys this great nation. Once we get over the bad times, the economy should grow at close to 8% annual, making up for prior losses over time.

As energy gets more expensive, manufacturing will move back to the US slowly, because it becomes cheaper to make things here than to ship them from Asia.

Not if corporate and income taxes rise...

remove income tax, move to a consumption based tax, and manufacturing will move back here more readily than any other means of trying to accomplish that.

I think there is a good chance that there will be a breakthrough green/renewable energy technology within about 5-10 years. This might be a game-changer. Depending on how revolutionary it is, it would have a substantial positive impact on US economic growth.

The prospective financial gains are definitely there now to make more people wanting to develop it. I have a pretty open mind on scientific things. Unless we develop cold fusion, I don't see any cheap energy other than solar and nuclear. Improving the efficiency of solar plants would probably be the best payoff.

The price of a barrel of oil will reach a consistant $100 in about 7 years, and $200 in about 13.

Maybe. I say that is really too hard to predict. Up and down, yes. Maintaining? Too many factors to predict that one in my opinion.

[ChumpDumper]

Corporate en ies will find a way of keeping profits. Afterall, they are friends of the democrats.

I just have the gut feeling this administration will make a boneheaded policy that has stock owners running.

this marxist president

[RobinsontoDuncan]

Does Wild Cobra know what Marxism means?

Define the word Marxist without reference to: Barack Obama, the Democratic Party, or liberals--- yeah, I'm pushing my luck on that one

[ChumpDumper]

[velik_m]

Africa will develop fairly well overall, and better than most would think.

Nope, not a chance.

[Wild Cobra]

Does Wild Cobra know what Marxism means?

Define the word Marxist without reference to: Barack Obama, the Democratic Party, or liberals--- yeah, I'm pushing my luck on that one

I'm not going to take that much time. However...

Marxism

The system of thought developed by Karl Marx, his coworker Friedrich Engels, and their followers.

It's a style of socialism believing in redistribution of wealth and more. I call him a Marxist because he fits more of the traits than any past president.

[ChumpDumper]

[FaithInOne]

I think New Zealand will become a major player in the next 17 years.

[Cry Havoc]

I'm not going to take that much time. However...



It's a style of socialism believing in redistribution of wealth and more. I call him a Marxist because he fits more of the traits than any past president.

AHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHHAHAAHAHHA.

No really, AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Woooooooooow. You would have been so much better off wikipedia'ing it and pretending to know what you're talking about.

[SnakeBoy]

It's a style of socialism believing in redistribution of wealth and more. I call him a Marxist because he fits more of the traits than any past president.

The socialist/marxist label was good rhetoric during the campaign (even though it didn't work) but it's getting old now. Can we just go back to calling him the antichrist?

[RandomGuy]

The price of a barrel of oil will reach a consistant $100 in about 7 years, and $200 in about 13.

This is a somewhat conservative guess.

I consider it quite possible that both price thresholds will be crossed sooner, but consider the time periods there to be the most probably.

[RandomGuy]

Agreed. Any stimulus money spent needs to be on infrastructure. Not social welfare.

Your problem is that you tend to undervalue human capital.

[Winehole23]

So you're saying you think the economy will get a little better, taxes will go up, and oil will rise.....................




You should be a 9 news meteoroligist with bold predictions like those.

Three year crash (credit crisis begins late August 2007) with anemic recovery for decades, easy as calling the weather?

Oil prices going up is a gimme, and if it's really true that anemic recovery for decades is a forecast as easy as tomorrow's weather in Texas, we better not wait for God to help us.

[George Gervin's Afro]

I'm not going to take that much time. However...



It's a style of socialism believing in redistribution of wealth and more. I call him a Marxist because he fits more of the traits than any past president.

In other words your just making things up as you go along

[Winehole23]

After that our economy will stagnate for pretty much the next two decades or so, with flat to minimal growth, as energy gets more expensive, and our economy adjusts.

[DarrinS]

My two personal favorites:

China will continue to grow quickly over the next 5 to 10 years, then suffer greatly when the ulative effects of pollution, and an aging population hammers their productivity.


Africa will develop fairly well overall, and better than most would think.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

In other words your just making things up as you go along

hey at least he's following obama's lead.

[RandomGuy]

My two personal favorites:

China will continue to grow quickly over the next 5 to 10 years, then suffer greatly when the ulative effects of pollution, and an aging population hammers their productivity.


Africa will develop fairly well overall, and better than most would think.

.. and this is funny... why?

[DarrinS]

.. and this is funny... why?

The only thing that may doom China's economy is enacting climate change laws and/or loaning the US too much money.


As for Africa, I've seen nothing in my lifetime to suggest anything will change for the better.

[RandomGuy]

Three year crash (credit crisis begins late August 2007) with anemic recovery for decades, easy as calling the weather?

Oil prices going up is a gimme, and if it's really true that anemic recovery for decades is a forecast as easy as tomorrow's weather in Texas, we better not wait for God to help us.

Our economy is based on cheap oil and cheap energy.

We will eke out some efficiency gains at first, but my reading of both oil depletion, and global climate change leads me to think our best days of growth are behind us.

I don't think we will have the political will to gear up renewables while energy is relatively cheap, meaning we will have to do it much more expensively later, and that will drag growth.

One other factor that will feed into this is the aging of America. We have some rather nasty unfunded liabilities in the form of Social Security, et al.

Conservatives and special interests will continue to fight for any kind of meaningful efficiency gains in the health insurance area, so I just don't see that happening. Yet another drag on the economy.

Europe, on the other hand, is both pushing for renewables, and have comprehensive health insurance coverage. I think the big bad socialists will secure an interesting compe ive advantage there. What they may lack in labor market flexibility, they will make up for somewhat with this.