Spurs Youth Movement?

[GSH]

[Edit: Holy , people. It's an observation, not a complaint. Let me say it up front, before there's a hundred or so posts defending the Spurs' FO for signing vets. I thought maybe it would prepare people ahead of time for the inevitable comments from the sports writers - "Spurs oldest team in league again".]

For all the talk about the Spurs' youth movement this year, it looks like they will probably wind up being the oldest team in the league again. In fact, if the Spurs were to re-sign Bruce Bowen, the average age on the team would only be about 1 month lower than last year. The Spurs currently have 8 players returning from last year's squad, but you have to take into account the fact that they are all a year older this season. The additions of McDyess and Theo Ratliff more than offset the loss of two of the oldest members of least year's team, Thomas and Oberto. Richard Jefferson and Marcus Haislip were both born in 1980, which makes them middle-aged by NBA standards.

I matched players from last season's roster to probable members of this season's roster - not by position, but simply as a way to compare ages on this team to last years'. Note that McDyess is only 1 year older than Oberto, but he is 2 years older than Oberto was last season. (The same applies to the other match-ups on the list.) There are two roster spots without guaranteed contracts, but this example, I assumed that Hairston makes the team and Williams doesn't, and the Spurs re-sign Bowen.

Returning Players:
Bowen/Bowen +1
Bonner/Bonner +1
Duncan/Duncan +1
Finley/Finley +1
Ginobili/Ginobili +1
Parker/Parker +1
Hill/Hill +1
Mason/Mason +1
Mahinmi/Mahinmi +1
Total: +9 years

Replacement Players:
Oberto/McDyess +18 mos
Thomas/Ratliff +6 mos
Vaughn/Haislip -4 yrs 10 mos
Udoka/Jefferson -22 mos
Williams/Blair -17 mos
Gooden/Hairston - 4yrs 5 mos
Total: -10.5 years

Collectively, this year's team would be 18 months younger than last year's team, or about 1 month per player. But even if Marcus Williams is on the team, rather than Bowen, the average age would only drop by about 15 months, which would probably still leave them as the oldest team in the league.

When it's all said and done, it looks like the Spurs' youth movement is moving very slowly.

[barbacoataco]

All of the contending teams are trying to sign vets because they win championships. The 2008 Celtics, 2007 Spurs, 2006 Heat and even the 2009 Lakers all had a lot of older players . The Celtics added Wallace. Look at the Nuggets who got better adding Billups who is an older player.

Also McDyess might be older but he has been good the last couple of years. Jefferson is 29ish which is a lot younger than Bowen or Finley who played SF last year. Blair will get minutes as a rookie and probably Mahinmi too.

Those stats are misleading because averages blend everything together and don't show the addition of rookies in the rotation, while the vets (hopefully) get fewer minutes.

[Manufan909]

You should wait til the trade deadline is passed, and then take the avg age of the top ten players, minutes-wise. It any 5 of Hill/Hairston/Jefferson/Blair/Mahinmi/Haislip/Williams are in there, the Spurs players who actually matter will be significantly younger, I think. I'm sure as not doing the math for the top ten from last year after the deadline.

EDIT: Fudge, barb beat me to the rotation argument. But just to add to it, Idk how you can count Mahinmi from last season, he did not play once. And quit ing, Fab/KT/Udoka/Vaughn/Bowen() are most likely all gone now!!! Be happy for christ's sake.

[Darkwaters]

Youth is overrated and average age is a skewed measure.

Young players and especially rookies are prone to mental lapses, rookie walls, and silly mistakes. More importantly, they're not proven under pressure a lot of the time. While it's important to not be old as dirt, it's also important to provide guidance to the youngin's. A player in his prime is one that is generally past the young and rookie mistakes but has not yet started to slow down from age - the best of both worlds.

A team like the Thunder is very young and super talented. Their average age is probably crazy low. But they suck. You have to temper a youth movement with wisdom and experience.

Meanwhile, average age is a failed statistic in my mind. It's more of a novelty than anything. It fails to consider minutes played or anything actually relavent to the game. If an 85 year old man was signed but was your 15th man, sat on the IR all season long and never played a minute would he really be problematic? No. You could have young studs at all the other 14 roster spots and could kick some serious ass. But your average age would look atrocious.

Hence, I fail to see how a player like Ratliff (who likely will play very little) figures the same as a guy like Jefferson who figures to play the most minutes of anyone on the team. And players like Mahinmi, Hairston and the like who were on the roster last year but rarely (if ever) actually suited up for the Spurs were equally valued in the equation as Tim Duncan. Average age is a lot like Social Security. It's a much discussed issue about a broken idea.

[Buddy Holly]

Seriously, why do people think we're resigning Bowen? Let it go people, let it go.

[Buddy Holly]

[Edit: Holy , people. It's an observation, not a complaint. Let me say it up front, before there's a hundred or so posts defending the Spurs' FO for signing vets. I thought maybe it would prepare people ahead of time for the inevitable comments from the sports writers - "Spurs oldest team in league again".]

For all the talk about the Spurs' youth movement this year, it looks like they will probably wind up being the oldest team in the league again. In fact, if the Spurs were to re-sign Bruce Bowen, the average age on the team would only be about 1 month lower than last year. The Spurs currently have 8 players returning from last year's squad, but you have to take into account the fact that they are all a year older this season. The additions of McDyess and Theo Ratliff more than offset the loss of two of the oldest members of least year's team, Thomas and Oberto. Richard Jefferson and Marcus Haislip were both born in 1980, which makes them middle-aged by NBA standards.

I matched players from last season's roster to probable members of this season's roster - not by position, but simply as a way to compare ages on this team to last years'. Note that McDyess is only 1 year older than Oberto, but he is 2 years older than Oberto was last season. (The same applies to the other match-ups on the list.) There are two roster spots without guaranteed contracts, but this example, I assumed that Hairston makes the team and Williams doesn't, and the Spurs re-sign Bowen.

Returning Players:
Bowen/Bowen +1
Bonner/Bonner +1
Duncan/Duncan +1
Finley/Finley +1
Ginobili/Ginobili +1
Parker/Parker +1
Hill/Hill +1
Mason/Mason +1
Mahinmi/Mahinmi +1
Total: +9 years

Replacement Players:
Oberto/McDyess +18 mos
Thomas/Ratliff +6 mos
Vaughn/Haislip -4 yrs 10 mos
Udoka/Jefferson -22 mos
Williams/Blair -17 mos
Gooden/Hairston - 4yrs 5 mos
Total: -10.5 years

Collectively, this year's team would be 18 months younger than last year's team, or about 1 month per player. But even if Marcus Williams is on the team, rather than Bowen, the average age would only drop by about 15 months, which would probably still leave them as the oldest team in the league.

When it's all said and done, it looks like the Spurs' youth movement is moving very slowly.

In 2007 the Spurs average age was 31. Right now as it stands the average age is 28. That's a three year difference in two years and that's even with the addition of Ratliff and Dice. If you dropped those two for two younger centers the age would drop as well to a little over 26.

The youth movement isn't going slowly.

[DBMethos]

The 2002-03 championship squad, which I feel is the most like the current one with its mix of young players and vets, had an average age of almost 30 at the start of the season. I think we're in good shape.

[spurspokesman]

You should wait til the trade deadline is passed, and then take the avg age of the top ten players, minutes-wise. It any 5 of Hill/Hairston/Jefferson/Blair/Mahinmi/Haislip/Williams are in there, the Spurs players who actually matter will be significantly younger, I think. I'm sure as not doing the math for the top ten from last year after the deadline.

EDIT: Fudge, barb beat me to the rotation argument. But just to add to it, Idk how you can count Mahinmi from last season, he did not play once. And quit ing, Fab/KT/Udoka/Vaughn/Bowen() are most likely all gone now!!! Be happy for christ's sake.

Yup.

[GSH]

In 2007 the Spurs average age was 31. Right now as it stands the average age is 28. That's a three year difference in two years and that's even with the addition of Ratliff and Dice. If you dropped those two for two younger centers the age would drop as well to a little over 26.

The youth movement isn't going slowly.

Nice try... but no. First of all, last year's roster was a little younger than '07-'08, but I don't think anyone counted last season as part of a youth movement. So why compare to something that is irrelevant?

The 15 players that we finished with last year had an average age of exactly 29.626 years. (Calculated to the day. Specific enough?) And, just as I said before, if we re-signed Bowen and waived Williams, the current 15 players would have an average age of exactly 29.521 years. That's a difference of only 1.25 months younger - just like I said.

The best case scenario (age-wise) is probably if Williams makes the team, and Bowen isn't re-signed. The average age would drop to 28.49 years - or 13.6 months younger than last year. Exactly what I said.

But a lot of people here think that there is still a good chance that the Spurs sign one or two veterans, and Hairston and/or Williams aren't on the final roster. And if that happens, the average age of this team will be pretty much the same as last season. Maybe a few months less, but potentially a few months more.

So, yes... the youth movement is going slowly. It's just an observation - I love the look of this roster. But the team didn't get a lot younger overall, like people thought after the draft. And it does mean that if any of the young guys can't cut it, the team we have on the floor most would be pretty much the same age as what we had last year.

back atcha

[bishopospurs]

If you could some how come up with an equation that factors in minutes then takes into account age you would have a better idea of how old a team really plays.

[sabar]

Flawed analysis that doesn't even consider playing time.

Player A - Age 22
Player B - Age 29
Player C - Age 31
Player D - Age 26
Player E - Age 39

Average age: 29.4

Properly factor in minutes per game

Player A - Age 22 - 20 mpg
Player B - Age 29 - 38 mpg
Player C - Age 31 - 30 mpg
Player D - Age 26 - 27 mpg
Player E - Age 39 - 8 mpg

Time-adjusted average age: 28.34
This means that a 102 year old that plays 0 mpg would not affect the time adjusted age.

The flawed statistic is this
Summation of (player age / roster size)

The correct one is this
Summation of ((player mpg / total mpg) * player age)

[slick'81]

fck age im sick of hearing it were not a young team big fckn surprise

[xellos88330]

I agree with alot of people here. You do not know what the lineup will be and who will be playing the minutes. For all we know the oldest guys could wind up riding the pine and all of the young guys take all their minutes. I think it shouldn't be a question of average overall age, but average age on the court during the game.

[Solid D]

If Blair becomes the first Big off the bench...a la Malik Rose when David Robinson was the starting Center, then a 20-year old (Blair) and a 23-year old (Hill) in a 9 man rotation would make the Spurs' rotation significantly younger.

[angelbelow]

You worry too much.

[Solid D]

You worry too much.

Is this intended for the OP?

[Rynospursfan]

Its too bad we aren't as young as the Bobcats or the Warriors, those teams are the best and will likely we winning the next 5 or 6 championships.

[Solid D]

Its too bad we aren't as young as the Bobcats or the Warriors, those teams are the best and will likely we winning the next 5 or 6 championships.

Ohhh, snap

[mudyez]

funny thing:

with the rosters right now, I was playing NBA2K and once the Bobcats became champions and one OKC kicked me out of the first round and advanced to the finals (simulating games, no trades) while we had the league best record both times.

not that I say, it means anything!

[intlspurshk]

If you want to measure youth, you should calculate an average of age weighted by projected playing time. That will give you a different picture

[bigdog]

Bowen will not be back. I don't see why people keep assuming that the Spurs are going to bring back an old guy, who's skills have decreased, who didn't get minutes last year.

[rjv]

when was the last time one of the youngest teams in the league ever did anything?

[bishopospurs]

I think those rocket teams were pretty young that won the championships. Only Hakeem, Thorpe, Elie, and an ancient Earl Cureton were thirty on the 93-94 team

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I don't think your analysis makes sense. Every player is a year older, so that is irrelevent, but what matters is that at SF we pretty much went from 39yo Bowen to 29yo Jefferson, and off the bench we will be playing and developing lots of youth - Hill, Blair, Mahinmi, Hairston. Last year we weren't actively developing (ie. giving NBA minutes to) any youth but Hill. Also, sure Dice and KT are the same age, but Dice has a comparatively young body after missing almost 3 full seasons in the middle of his career.

We are a lot younger in practice, and in 3 years the post-Duncan era will begin with a bunch of guys in the primes of their career.

I think we have a wonderful mix of vets and youth, yet another win for the FO.

[GSH]

Some of you have an amazing grasp of the ing obvious. (If the older guys aren't playing many minutes, those minutes will be played by - gasp - younger guys. Gee... you think?) But I wonder if any of you are big enough to admit when you're wrong? How about this then:

Last year our starting 5 at the end of the season was Duncan, Parker, Mason, Finley, and Bonner. They had an average age of 30.02 years. This year, our starting 5 is very likely to be Duncan, Parker, Mason, Jefferson, and McDyess. And their average age would be 30.67 years. That's right, nuts. Our starting 5 this season will probably be older than last years'. And, like it or not, the starters get the lion's share of the minutes. And if we happen to start Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, and McDyess? Their average age would be 31.30. That's a very plausible starting 5, that would be well more than a year older than last seasons starting lineup!

And before you talk too much about how young our bench players will be, remember that Bonner, Mason, and Haislip are all going to be 29. Manu will be 32. And Finley and Theo Ratliff will both be 36. Any bench minutes those guys get will keep the average age up there. And you know those guys are going to get some minutes between them.

So guess what, class? Even adjusted for playing time, this year's team will only play slightly younger than last year's, unless Blair takes over the starting C position. And by slightly, I mean maybe 6 months - at the most. And if Blair struggles, it could easily play older than last year's team - even adjusted for playing time.

I think this could be a championship team, I really do. But it's not a youth movement, like a lot of people have been saying. Sorry, it just isn't. Maybe the numbers don't tell the whole story, but age is a math function. They guys' ages are what they are. If you want to argue a different point, go ahead - just don't try and put me on the other side of it.

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