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great read.
i can't wait for the season to start. !!!
http://www.48minutesof .com/2009/...rk-to-be-done/
A Note of Caution: Work to be Done
On his latest podcast, Bill Simmons talks offseason with Marc Stein and Ric Bucher. It gets a little catty, and each man wins points here and there. When the talk turned to the obligatory “Who will win the le?” question, I was surprised to hear each man offer support for the Spurs (Bucher throws Boston into the conversation, but only because Stein and Simmons had already selected San Antonio).
The picks were qualified under the assumption that Lamar Odom moves house to Miami, and I suspect their picks are early indicators of a forthcoming October trend. But let me say, as someone who chronicles the Spurs, there is reason for caution.
We’re not out of July yet, and I’m already ready to name R.C. Buford 2009/10’s most accomplished executive. When he receives his due, someone should impose a zero over the nine, making the trophy good for 2000-2010. More than any other offseason, he’s lived up to his reputation this summer. The Spurs get an A+ for their summer haul, but they’re a long way from home.
I’m with Pop. The Lakers are still the favorites. The reason for this is simple: continuity. In some ways, it’s more difficult to work in new talent than it is to recover from the loss of talent. It’s a players league, but players flounder or flourish based on their ability to succeed within a system. Did anyone doubt that A.I. would provide fewer answers in Detroit or Shawn Marion would slip out of his matrix in Miami? The Spurs are adroit surveyors of talent, always picking the right players, players who fit what they do. But every executive has a margin of error, and you never really know a team’s capabilities until you see it on the court.
A couple weeks ago I wrote that the upcoming season is on Coach Popovich. To crib a line from Biggie Smalls, mo’ talent, mo’ problems. Granted, they’re the right problems to have. Pop is up to his neck in talent, but it’s a swamp from shoulder to toe.
Teaching the System
It’s frequently said that the Spurs’ system takes a full season to learn, with new acquisitions playing better as sop res than freshmen. That can’t be the case this season. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are too old for Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair to spend the year in training wheels. Pop and his staff must accelerate the learning curve. A home run training camp is a must.
The Spurs are fortunate that most of their young players have learned the system, either as a Spur or Toro. George Hill should be fine. To my mind, Ian Mahinmi, Malik Hairston and Marcus Williams will brand the Toros an unqualified success if they’re able to give the Spurs minutes without flubbing defensive rotations. (It’s not part of the national conversation, but an incredibly important storyline for the upcoming season is the Austin Toros. The strength of Spurs’ bench is largely contingent on the ability of former Toros to make the transition from the D-League to the Association.)
Incorporating the Young Players
Our readers are hip to the Spurs’ current youth movement. Casual fans and broad stroke national writers will pick up the scent come February, but for now consider that next year’s roster is likely to feature George Hill (23), Ian Mahinmi (22), DeJuan Blair (20), Malik Hairston (22), and Marcus Williams (22). It’s not a stretch to project four of those five into the regular season rotation. In addition, newcomers Richard Jefferson (29) and Marcus Haislip (28) are still on the right side of 30. Jefferson is a lock for heavy minutes and Haislip will challenge Matt Bonner for the right to play the role of Robert Horry.
But Popovich prefers vets. If he had his way, the team would be old as dirt every season. But the Spurs see the limits of such preferences, and they’ve clearly tipped their hat toward more youth and athleticism. This will seem odd, but the Spurs’ championship aspirations hang more on George Hill, DeJuan Blair and Ian Mahinmi than we think. The additions of Jefferson and McDyess bring the Spurs even, or just ahead, of the league’s top teams in terms of talent. But those additions simply even the score, they’re not go ahead runs.
If the Spurs create significant separation between themselves and their compe ion, it will be because their young players exceed expectations. Ian Mahinmi has to show that he belongs in a league that includes Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess and Theo Ratliff.
It’s in the team’s best interest for Pop to commit minutes to his 20-somethings, even at the cost of sacrificing regular season wins to develop them for the playoffs. Pop’s recourse to George Hill in the final two games of Mavericks series is an indicator that he gets it. His willingness to walk away from Kurt Thomas, Bruce Bowen and Fabricio Oberto seals the conviction. Now Pop must roll up his sleeves and transform Malik Hairston into a productive reserve.
Managing Minutes
Tony Parker is playing international ball this summer. Manu Ginobili is frail. Antonio McDyess is durable, but old. Tim Duncan’s legs need plenty of rest. How many regular season minutes should the Spurs give to each of them? Should the Spurs sit their core on alternating nights during back to backs? That is, on a Friday-Saturday back to back, let Parker and McDyess have Friday off, and give Duncan and Ginobili extended pine on Saturday. The Spurs flirted with this possibility last season, and given the age and odometer of their core, it seems like a prudent policy for the upcoming season.
Taking such an approach to back to backs also gives Popovich an opportunity to place an onus to win on his young players while allowing himself more than enough opportunity to evaluate their potential contribution to the team. It’s a win-win policy.
Finding a Rotation
Let’s just consider the frontline: Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair will command most of the minutes, but obviously you don’t want to play Duncan or McDyess too much. The 4th and, potentially, 5th spots in the big rotation are up for grabs. Ian Mahinmi, Matt Bonner, Marcus Haislip, and Theo Ratliff are the contenders.
The only way to figure out who should play is through trial and error. We’re left to watch Popovich watch the team. I’m confident we’ll have many “Ugh, why did Pop play Bonner so many minutes last night?” moments next season. And Popovich is certain to walk away from games thinking, “I’ll never play those two together again.” This season’s quest for a rotation is challenging because no one, including Pop, knows how the retooled frontline will gel, what players like Haislip and Mahinmi bring to the table, or how much, say, Ratliff has left in the tank. Up to the point of Drew Gooden, last season’s frontcourt was an entirely known quan y.
Staying Healthy
If Pop can get all the new guys up to speed, incorporate the young players, and effectively manage the minutes of his core, he still needs to get lucky. Everything hinges on the Spurs’ health in April, May and June.
Related to this, a Fanpost at Pounding the Rock asks a provocative question: Does Gregg Popovich owe it to Peter Holt to go for home court advantage. As most fans know, Pop is notoriously unconcerned about whether the Spurs play at home or on the road in the playoffs. Ultimately, they have to win on the road, so he treats the question as a non-issue. But what if the question of home court advantage is not about playoff wins and losses; what if home court advantage is about the box office revenue associated with a 3rd or 4th game at home?
I’d like to think that Popovich doesn’t feel these pressures, and there is absolutely no indications that Peter Holt imposes them. If Holt has demonstrated anything to the team’s fans, it’s that his commitment to winning trumps his commitment to the bottom line. One could say that in this case a commitment to winning works in concert with a commitment to the bottomline. But that all hinges on a point of semantics–a commitment to regular season wins is not the same thing as a commitment to winning. It means nothing to the Spurs to win 64 rather than 60 regular season games. That’s not a commitment to winning. It’s a commitment to wins. A commitment to winning means championships. The Spurs are wise enough to know the difference.
Still, having said all that, Pop knows the score. R.C. Buford has assembled the talent, Peter Holt is picking up the check. It’s on him to get the team through.
great read.
i can't wait for the season to start. !!!
Wow, there are so many solid points in this article, it is hard to decide what to focus on. But I will go with the big rotation, because I think it is the biggest piece of the pie. With positions 1 thru 3, Pop has known variables in Tony, Manu, Mason, Hill, Finley, and Jefferson, along with Hairston and Williams, if they both make the team. Outside of Finley, I have no doubt in my mind Pop will have the best depth chart when it comes to all of them.
But with PF and C, Pop only really has known qualities in Tim, Bonner, and McDyess. Ratliff, Haislip, Mahinmi, and Blair are all question marks to varying degrees, with only Blair to be a somewhat small one. I would hope that in the POs the 5 man rotation would be Tim, Blair, Ian, McDyess, and Haislip(Ratliff and Bonner splitting Tims minutes when he does not play), but who knows? The new kids and Haislip might fold, and/or the vets might resemble Fab from last season.
But I belive it to be highly unlikely that not even two of the new bigs really contributes, I just hope Pop gets the best men for the job, even if some of them stumble in the first half of the season.
Oh, and if Haislip has a 35% plus 3pt shot, and is better on D and/or the boards then Bonner by the trade deadline, Pop moves the Red Rocket for cash or picks, or at least make him the 15th man.
Good read, pop seems to think that teams are like his wine, better with age but this off season seems like he finally realized he drank the last drop of championship wine in 2007. So now its a new bottle with a mix of new grapes and seasoned vets, hopefully this bottle provides a few more championships!
good find!! that really has alot of great points
the part that stood out to me soo much was that it is a win win resting our stars and working the young people into the system, it may end up meaning 1-10 more losses, but when the playoffs come around they will be ready!!!
DAMN i love the fo and pop, they really are one of a kind!!!
if were healthy, this should be an amazing year!!!
I am really praying that Ian and Blair can combine for 35 productive minutes a game. With Duncan playing around 30 (down from his almost 35 last year) and McDyess about 25 minutes that would leave about 6 minutes a game for Haislip/Bonner/Ratliff. I would agree that if Haislip shows game Bonner may be a goner.
i hope haislip comes through....he deserves a second chance, im fine with bonner but an athletic big is much better than a pasty white one
that has a nice ring to itBonner may be a goner...
The good thing about Dice and RJ is they have played in a motion offense before, Dice in Detroit and RJ when he was with NJ. That really helped Mason come out firing and fitting in last year, since Washington ran the same Princeton offense that NJ does.
The difference in just adding players and adding the players the SPurs did.
The players the Spurs added have great bball IQs.
Dice, Jefferson and Ratliff all have greatones.
From whats been heard and told, Blair has a fantastic bball IQ as well.
IMO, they will get off to a typical "slow" start, but they will start to turn it on middle of February as opposed to march and April.
Will Pop be under pressure to extend all the series to seven games as well?Related to this, a Fanpost at Pounding the Rock asks a provocative question: Does Gregg Popovich owe it to Peter Holt to go for home court advantage. As most fans know, Pop is notoriously unconcerned about whether the Spurs play at home or on the road in the playoffs. Ultimately, they have to win on the road, so he treats the question as a non-issue. But what if the question of home court advantage is not about playoff wins and losses; what if home court advantage is about the box office revenue associated with a 3rd or 4th game at home?
I hope we don't overthink this stuff too much. Just win Pop!
Blair being Spurs 3rd bigman is far from a sure thing.Let’s just consider the frontline: Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair will command most of the minutes, but obviously you don’t want to play Duncan or McDyess too much.
I still don't see how the Spurs are goint to manage 7 bigs on their roster, when they usually only play 4-5 in their rotation. I think y'all are naive to assume that Blair is in front of Bonner in the rotation. If Haislip is a PF/SF tweener who can play the 3, then maybe he finds some minutes.
this is hilarious to listen to now that the Lakers have resigned Odom.
The crowd in Spurstalk can be such sheep. When the Thread topic was eerily similar...
followed up by
and
Sheep said the topic was stupid.
Now the same discussion on 48MOH is solid gold.
The crowd in Spurstalk can be such sheep. When the Thread topic was eerily similar...
followed up by
and
Sheep said the topic was stupid.
Now the same discussion on 48MOH is solid gold.
yup, i've noticed that quite a lot. it's sad.
So if he isn't going to be the one... Who do you think it's his biggest compe or for the job? Ian? Marcus? Theo? Matt?
I think Haislip will play the 3... so that leaves just 3, not 4 players to compete for minutes...
Nice article.
Ur one of the biggest jackazzes in here, sorry. They resigne Odom okay, I knew they would all along while some did not I guess. The Spurs are still a very talented team and if they put it all together and contenders regardless.
Can you imagine no Jefferson or Dyess etc. going against LA? It's a wrap, now they have a chance.
He's in denial.
Is Odom Shaq in his prime? I think not. The Lakers go as far as Kobe Bryant/Pau Gasol can take them. Health is everything, I hope the Spurs/Lakers meet eachother in next years playoffs all healthy and we will find out where the Waldo is.
What I'd also like is not only for Pop to give our new players the needed minutes, but also the chance to play till the end of games, when the game could be just decided by a single play.
Haislip has spend his career at the PF spot. You can think that he will play SF if you want but it's a quite wild assumption.
Blair won't get the 3rd bigman spot if he doesn't play good defense. Being a great rebounder isn't enough in the NBA. Last year, Sixers went with Ratliff over Evans in the playoffs for this reason.
I find it funny you take for granted how tenuous LA's hold on the O'Brien is. Talented as they are, your starting five boasts a fragile 5, an old, slow 1, and 2 megalomaniacal wings -- meaning you have in-built chemistry as well as health issues to worry about.
Then the 6th man you seem to think will seal the deal is no longer playing for a contract, and the contract he got was a low-ball. If history is any guide, he'll go back to underperforming as he rides out his sunset deal.
Then there's your punchline of a bench: mediocre talent, paid well over their market value, with no expiring contracts to potentiate a trade. Unfortunately for you, the bench is particularly weak where it hurts you most: the PG and C. One or two injuries and the fate of your team is in the hands of scrubs. Do you really think teams aren't going to play the Lakers physically all year long? Do you really think that won't increase the odds of an injury occuring? Of course you don't.
Finally, if PJs health weren't a question, his contract wouldn't come in 1 year increments, would it? If he goes, so goes your team.
Look... I get that you want to gloat about how unassailably awesome you think your team is -- and being that they're the champs, you're en led to be as big of a about it as you please -- but if you are actually going into this season without trepidation or humility, I get the feeling you know more about trolling than basketball. Let's see how y everybody's feeling in June.
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