1. Who will start at SG?
Manu has been shuffled between starter and 6th man more times than we've heard the word "twitter" this summer. Clearly he's earned the right to start. Clearly the bench is much stronger with him anchoring it. My best guess is with RJ and 'Dyess strengthening the starting group, Pop uses Manu (mostly) as a reserve. He's more productive when not "crowded" by other stars, and the otherwise young bench will need his stability. Realize if Manu were to start, despite the big investments made this summer by the F.O., the bench would have no player making more than $3.8M, most of them a piddling million or two. While there are a lot of bad contracts in the league, there's still a you-get-what-you-pay-for truth to the market (look at the Lakers bench of Odom, Walton, Vujacic, etc.).
2. Who will be the 13th man?
With 13 men expecting guaranteed money, someone's got to wear a suit. I'm assuming Hairston and Williams occupy spots 14 and 15. My guess here is Theo Ratliff. While there's hope Theo still has something to offer, he played limited minutes and put up a mere 1.9 ppg for a much lesser team last year. This is speculation, but it's quite possible he was brought in to mentor Mahinmi and serve as insurance for injury or flop. And if Mahinmi can turn it on, then the mentee may become the mentor, or as Tracy Jordan would say, the manatee become the mento. As for Haislip, my gut is telling me that his versatility as a 3/4, his big-time production in Europe, and his drive to prove something will land him the 12th spot.
3. Who will guard Kobe?
Does the defensive match-up of one opponent deserve so much attention? Yes. Clearly the path to the Finals goes through the Lakers, and with such high expectations for the Spurs this season, no one's going to remember how many regular season games were won - that is, it will all boil down to one series (um, and then the Finals). Pop and RC praised RJ for his ability to defend, but Richard will be forced to guard Artest or Odom due to their size. Mason will get some time on Kobe, maybe Hill will make it defense-by-committee, but ultimately it will come down to Manu stepping up on D. Not ideal for the Spurs, no longer do they have the luxury of Bowen to play Kobe-stopper. Even with the potential for an in-season trade, it will still boil down to Manu guarding Kobe. Why? If we pull off another trade (even $12M worth), it is extremely unlikely that we will acquire a wing that will bump Manu or RJ from closing out games, so expect to see Manu on Kobe when it matters.
4) Who will be our 8th and 9th men?
Hill and either Mason or Manu will be our 6th and 7th men. I've heard everyone else's name thrown out for the next spots in the rotation. But I expect Pop to go with Finley and Bonner here, and rightly so. Yes, the old faithful - remember, these were two of last year's STARTERS, now we're talking 8th and 9th spots. Let's start with Finley, remember the shape with which he came into last season? This is it for him, and he won't go down without a fight to be part of the push for the ring. He's simply better than Hairston. He's vastly more experienced, far more familiar with the system, and is one of the best shooters, um, period. As Duncan says, every time he lets it go I think it's going in. Also, Pop runs plays both mid-range and from the 3 for him (Hairston hasn't reached the point of having plays run for him, let alone getting out of Austin), so expect a professional and efficient 12-15 minutes a night from Mike. Next - Matt Bonner. As much as I'm psyched about Blair, he's still a rookie. While it seems everyone expects Pop to put Hill, Blair, Mahinmi, Haislip, and a Toro out as our second unit, I find this highly unlikely. Here's a cold-hard fact, without McDyess, Bonner would be our starting center again this year. So there's no need to throw a fit about him being our 9th man. He was one of the best 3 pt shooters in the NBA last year, he spreads the floor for Tim, and this is exactly the role he's built for - a hard-working 9th man who knows the system. Now, all that being said, let's hope a youngster (or two) has a break-out year and busts his way straight up the rotation!
5) Will the Spurs make another big move?
Certainly the Spurs are set up to take advantage of a team that by February realizes their season is going nowhere. Anyone looking to dump a star making between $5-12M could have a taker in the Spurs. I'll avoid the temptation of throwing out names that have littered this forum for the past couple of months. This question may trump all others and render their current answers irrelevant, but at this point it's too hypothetical to say much more. Well I couldn't help myself - one team to watch out for would be Detroit, if they disappoint and find themselves out of the playoff race (likely with improvements to Toronto and Washington), Rip or Tayshaun may not be part of their long term picture.
6) Who will be the Spurs' toughest compe ion in the West?
Aside from the Lakers of course. I'm going with the Mavs and Portland. Denver is still a team to be reckoned with, but I'm not a George Karl fan. I like the Marion pick-up for Dallas - with one subs ution they can go from one of the biggest teams in the league to one of the smallest: Kidd, Howard, Marion, Dirk, and Dampier transforms to small-ball with Terry coming in for Damp. Although a real commitment to team ball from Gooden and Thomas may be asking too much. Portland will be a real threat if Miller helps Oden find his groove, and they have enough pieces for another strong trade mid-season.
7) Will the Spurs be able to guard mobile 4s?
It's not just that the league in general is shifting to mobile 4s, it's that our prime compe ors are leading the way. Odom, Dirk, KMart, Aldridge, and DWest are all very athletic and have outside games. McDyess 8 years ago would have been a great weapon against these guys, let's hope his aging body is up to the task of slowing them down now. Blair and Bonner certainly aren't prototype defenders for mobile 4s, and Haislip has a lot to prove before he starts taking important minutes. Ultimately, I think McDyess's ability to bully these guys, his remnants of quickness, and the slower-paced half-court nature of the playoffs will pull us through.
8) What will be the biggest regret of the off-season?
Missing out on Rasheed? Losing Bruce or KT? Finley re-upping? Going for RJ over VC? Passing on Big Baby and AI? None of the above. Shouldn't be many regrets coming out of this summer, but one might be a slip of the tongue on RC's behalf. After drafting Blair, in an unusually elated and revealing moment, RC blurted out that Blair was an immediate 20-mpg guy. I don't think DeJuan or Spurs fans will forget this soon, particularly when cursing Bonner. By the end of the year, we may be so lucky as to see some 20-minute games logged by the rookie, but if his average is anywhere near that I'll personally ice his knees.
9) Who will be the most pleasant surprise for the Spurs?
Surprise is an interesting notion - it's all predicated on expectations. It's hard enough to come to consensus on a player's baseline level of expectation, let alone predict what he might become. And then there's the paradox of self-referential dynamic expectations, e.g., if you tell me Jack McClinton is most likely to exceed expectations, his baseline level of expectation creeps up by your mere suggestion. That being said, Jack McClinton is not the answer to our question. Fortunately, the Spurs are blessed with a number of other great candidates:
-DeJuan Blair falls from this list because of grandiose proclamations (by some in this forum) that he'll challenge Blake Griffin for ROY and the above-mentioned 20-mpg comment from Buford. I actually think Blair will be the best of our youngsters, but his baseline level of expectation has been raised too high.
-Hairston is another who hits the chopping block early for me. Malik will have to wait until next year, as for now the wing positions are cramped with Manu, Mason, RJ, and Finley (and Haislip and Williams).
-Haislip is a good candidate as he's certainly under the radar with regards to national attention, and he fills a niche (3/4 forward) lacking on the rest of the roster.
-Marcus Williams' baseline level of expectation is low as he missed out on the buzz of Summer League, and he holds a special advantage over Hairston (and Finley): he may be able to play some point-forward (see the 11 assists in his massive triple-double with the Toros). Considering we're slim at back-up PG, this skill might earn him some PT. So it's Williams' (and Haislip's) ability to play multiple positions that gives them the leg up on Hairston.
-Mahinmi has to be the guy the Spurs F.O. would most like to see exceed expectations. Me too. Problem is all young players make mistakes. The more minutes they play the sooner they get through making those mistakes. But as the Spurs push for the le, how willing will they be to let Ian make those mistakes? Bringing in Ratliff may signify limited patience for youth. What Ian needs to do to exceed expectations is show us he can play a team game on both ends of the floor - set good picks, pass, play help-defense, and I don't know that he's mature enough to surprise us this year.
-George Hill surprised me in Summer League. The one play in which he dribbled through a double-team and skied for a dunk was spectacular. His handle and confidence was far advanced compared to last year. I think he's improved every aspect of his game. The last two games of Summer League were a bit concerning, but I think George will have a really solid year, but not more surprising than...
-Manu. He's been a relatively quiet superstar nationally, and after last year's injury for many he's essentially a forgotten factor. Quite simply, if he makes the all-star team he will have exceeded expectations. Here's why we should be excited: Manu is 100% healthy, he's tearing all of his remaining hair out to get back on the court, we know how compe ive he is with the prospect of a le on the line, and he's in a contract year (even Manu is susceptible to this carrot). What I'm most pumped about for this season is seeing the return of Manu and his best season yet.
10. Will the Spurs stay healthy?
Last but not least, the most important question of all, we can only cross our fingers...
- I hope our starting SG will be Mason, since he has been proven to be a good shooter while playing with Duncan and Parker. We also need Manu lead the bench players.
- Richard Jefferson will guard Kobe, Jeff McDonald said in his blog that Popovich wants Jefferson to defend the other team's best player on a nightly basis.
- Lakers will be our toughest compe ion without a doubt.
- Dice can defend mobile F？I think so. Haislip and Mahinmi? Maybe. Bonner? No way!
- Off-season regret?
Nice post. I think you make some good points.
can mason guard artest? jefferson should be planted on kobe, leaving mason on artest.
Nice post, welcome to the forum.
In crunch time it'd be Manu on Artest, though a lot stronger, not quicker and is likely to hoist up 3's all game.
Position-wise, Richard Jefferson should guard Artest and Mason should guard Kobe. But That's just too tough for Mason. I'd say Mason can't guard both of them but RJ is better on Kobe coz they are the same kind of athlete.
Artest is a Foward. Last year he played 7% of team's total mins at PF position, and 53% at SF. But Mason is a SG without size and physicality. If we don't get a defensive swingman, maybe Hairston should play more mins while against Lakers. Well, I still think Ime Udoka is way better than a 2nd year rookie.
mason on artest would be much better than mason on kobe and jefferson on artest. i hope hariston develops and cracks the rotation. he'd be perfect against artest and can be a solid defender to throw at kobe. signing udoka solely to guard one person seems a little ridiculous.
I'll post my opinions a little later, but I would just like to say fantastic post
One of the big question marks for me is what Haislip can bring to the table, specially defensively. He's supposed to be athletic. We know he's tall and is pretty mobile for his size. Does he have the lateral movement and the mental/physicaltoughness to guard a player like Artest or an Odom? A lot could be riding on the answer.
1. I would be shocked if Mason was not our starting SG. Spurs greatest success was with Manu coming off the bench, why change that?
2. Our 13th man? I believe this will be a rotating situation. I think that Pop is going to go into maximum "It's all about the playoffs" mode early in the season. I think there is a good chance that he rests McDyess and Duncan on alternating nights of back-to-backs. This would explain why you carry 7 bigs. This also gives new guys, especially Ian and Blair more minutes to develop. Let's face it, the best thing in the world for the Spurs this year is for Ian to play well. That solves so many problems for them. Hairston, Williams, Haislip, Ratliff all rotate through the suit patrol. In a perfect world for the Spurs Haislip impresses enough to be able to take Bonner's role and they swap.
3. Jefferson, Hairston, and Hill guard Kobe. At the end of the game do you think the ball comes out of Kobe's hands just because of a match up? I surely don't see it going to Artest next anyway. If it does...great!! I would rather see Artest shooting w/ Manu guarding him than Kobe shooting w/ RJ guarding him.
4. I disagree on 8th and 9th men. Are we going to win a championship with Bonner getting substantial minutes in the playoffs? I think it will be a priority to develop Ian and Blair. Bonner will no doubt get his minutes early in the season just due to the experience factor, but I think by season's end the Spurs hope he is in a suit.
5. I agree with you. Nothing until the trade deadline to see what we have.
6. Agree
7. I think Haislip is going to get the chance to guard them.
8. I think you really have to look hard for regrets this year.
9. I am really hoping Ian will be the biggest surprise, but I have a hunch it will be Haislip.
10. Crossing my toes as well...
Very solid post ! nice reading
Excellent post!
I don't think Mason is going to be effective guarding either Kobe or Artest.
Haislip is the only player in the roster who can guard guys like Dirk and West. In fact, the best you can do against Kobe is to put a 6'10" guy with mobility on him. For reference, see Turkulu's block on him in the finals.
Blair is going to be our Leon Powe. He's a beast in the paint and he's a foul magnet. His liability however is that Bynum, Gasol and Odom are going to easily shoot over him.
Mahinmi must be able to neutralize either Bynum or Gasol. He's got to have a presence in defense.
Manu may just have to be our Bowen replacement.
Hill has go to improve his ball handling skills.
Marcus Williams has got to become our Jason Kidd. In other words, we need ball handling and assists from this dude, plus solid defense against a SG.
In short, for us to win it all, Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, RJ and Dyess have to make their numbers. Meanwhile newbies like Haislip, Blair, Mahinmi and Williams have to exceed expectations.
Finley, Mason and Bonner are going to do well but I don't think they've got the potential to be difference makers in the playoffs. Last year Finley surprisingly was really accurate at the 3 and finally had some occassions where he could take it to the hoop. But relying on this old timer to improve his game is asking too much.
Mason in the playoffs is too small and too slow to be able to get his shots off against bigger defenders. Bonner is also too slow for playoff basketball.
who will min the NBA championship.............the San Antonio Spurs.
Excellent post and I agreed with basically everything you said, and welcome to SpursTalk.
Pressurz--great post. IMO Mahimni is the X factor. If he can't provide production as a Big the Spurs will have to make another move. It's fish or cut bait time for Ian. He is ideally suited to relieve Dice at center with the 2nd unit. Ratliff could fill the bill for short periods but not in a championship run. Except for Tim we don't have another true center.
The only question I would add to pressurez's list is, "Will the Spurs alter their style of play offfensively with the new personnel?" It seems to me Pop will/should. The days of slow it down, set it up, dump it inside that we played with Bonner/ Finley should be gone. Jefferson, Haislip, Hairston, Mahimni, Hill and Williams were born to run the floor. Tony and Manu ain't bad either. Tim, Dice, Blair, and Theo will set the table. Instead of who will cover Kobe or Artest, I kinda like to think to who will Kobe have to cover as the Spurs run the floor.
great post.
im expecting a fantastic year from Manu, he needs and the team needs it.
Trying to hide from it doesn't help. Who can slow down Kobe is the key to beating the Lakers for years, even in Shaq's last years there. If SA can't contain him they have no chance in the series.Instead of who will cover Kobe or Artest, I kinda like to think to who will Kobe have to cover as the Spurs run the floor.
No secret why Houston came closer to knocking LA out than any other team this year. Its why Boston beat them last year too - they zoned up on Kobe and the rest of the team didn't step up. In fact, its why Phoenix beat them as well in the playoffs. So much firepower that his offensive outburst wouldn't be enough to keep up.
SA appears to be going the scoring route but they don't have enough high-octane weapons or system to run LA out the gym. And they no longer have the defenders to grind a game out.
That ace in the pocket is why most Laker fans are very confident about getting out the West for the 3rd year in a row. The size factor inside, coaching, and other pieces help but all that is just to put the Lakers in the best position for Kobe to finish it off.
SA has a very nice team. If Duncan and Ginobili can play 60+ games a piece, I expect SA to have between 55-60 wins.
Only other question Spurs fans have to worry about is defending mobile PFs. Gasol, Dirk, and Aldridge are especially the ones who will give the Spurs fits. How far they get in the playoffs will depend largely on if they can avoid them - especially Gasol and Dirk.
I don't think Gasol is a mobile PF, he's primarily playing center near the basket with decent mid-range shooting, which is similar to Duncan. Lamar Odom is a mobile PF.
West athletic???
hater - West is athletic but too small I believe to really dominate SA now.
Riverwalkman - LA's entire frontline is going to give SA fits. Really no way around it. Unless Duncan is 100%, even he alone isn't going to be able to really contain Pau or Bynum (assuming his health) on the block.
IMO, the toughest match-up when Spurs confront LA is Odom and Artest. I don't think anyone can figure it out by now.
Biggest question is the health of the team - Manu in particular. Kinda scary that our shot at a championship relies on the health of 32-year old, injury prone player. I hope Manu proves me wrong though.
funniest thing in the thread.
Like I was saying, that's an extremely high expectation. But hey, it just might work out. See: http://www.48minutesof .com/2009/...s-point-guard/
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