Which 2010 free agents are most likely to move?

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http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=326431

Which 2010 free agents are most likely to move?

By Mike McGraw

Bulls general manager Gar Forman tried to deflect attention away from next year's free-agent chase on media day by stressing that the current team is good enough to compete the way it is.
Not good enough to compete for a championship, most likely.
So while the Bulls are busy adjusting to Big Ben time in London, let's take an advance look at the star-studded 2010 free-agent class. These players have until the end of the month to sign extensions, but no one seems likely to do so.
Dwyane Wade, Miami: This Chicago-area native spends most of his summers in the city, so it seems logical to suggest if Wade does leave Miami next year he'd join the Bulls and form an all-local backcourt with Derrick Rose.
Wade almost single-handedly carried the Heat to a fifth-place finish in the East last year and he pretty much has the same team back. So on one hand, he might grow tired of having to carry the load for the Heat.
On the other hand, his Miami roots have grown deep during six years in South Florida. Knowing his departure could devastate the franchise, there's a good chance Wade could stay put and try to lure a free-agent power forward to the Heat next summer.
Chances of leaving: 20 percent

Chris Bosh, Raptors: Everything seems to be sunny above Lake Ontario right now after Bryan Colangelo shook up the roster in hopes of making Bosh feel good about a long-term stay.
Former Orlando forward Hedo Turkoglu signed on, while Jarrett Jack arrived from Indiana to play two guard.
Then again, defense could be a big issue for the Raptors if they play a front line of Bosh, Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani.
Neither Bosh nor Bargnani is much of a center, which is why Colangelo brought back Rasho Nesterovic after a one-year absence.
The bottom line seems to be if the Raptors return to the playoffs, Bosh will stick around. Toronto is a great city, after all.
If the Raptors miss the playoffs again, Bosh is liable to roam, with the Bulls and Miami likely destinations.
Chances of leaving: 50 percent

Carlos Boozer, Jazz: Utah probably was hoping Boozer would opt out of his contract this summer, but he didn't.
Everyone expected a trade, including Boozer, while the Jazz might have held off because it couldn't find a way to trim payroll in any deal.
With the Jazz matching Portland's offer for power forward Paul Millsap, Boozer seems as good as gone. The only question is whether he will be traded by February or walk away next summer.
Chances of leaving: 99 percent

LeBron James, Cavs: James' intentions have been tough to read, but if he does ditch Cleveland, it most likely will be to broaden his marketing empire with the Knicks or the Nets.
Chances of leaving: 30 percent

David Lee, Knicks: Lee signing a one-year deal with New York this summer is a nice scenario for the Bulls, since it brings another good option at power forward to the open market.
Chances of leaving: 50 percent

Amare Stoudemire, Suns: He has posted great numbers, but his microfracture knee surgery, indifferent defense and questionable leadership will cause teams to proceed with caution.
If his price drops, the Bulls may have interest, but not for anything close to a maximum contract.
Chances of leaving: 40 percent

Joe Johnson, Hawks: Another great option at shooting guard, Johnson's move from Phoenix in 2005 helped turn the Hawks' franchise around and created some excitement in a once-empty arena. It's tough to see him bailing on that scenario.
Chances of leaving: 10 percent

Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs: The only way Dirk departs is if the Mavs managed to sign Dallas-native Bosh. Nowitzki is the better player but six years older.
Chances of leaving: 5 percent

Manu Ginobili, Spurs: Ginobili figured to be a lifelong Spur, but now that the team took on Richard Jefferson's expensive contract, his future might be muddier.
Chances of leaving: 20 percent

I don't know. I would probably put Manu's chances of leaving at 30%. By the way did anyone watch the interview Manu recently did with both Greg Simons and Don Harris. Wow Manu doesn't sound very positive at all about staying with the Spurs after this year other than the usual "yes I would like to stay with the Spurs but ...." speech. It should get really interesting next year when he's a FA. If he stays pretty healthy this year I can see some teams willing to pay what we're not which is understandable since he'll be 33. I don't see the Spurs paying that much.

[Supergirl]

If Manu has another injury-plagued season or otherwise iffy season this year I think the Spurs will shop him.

But I don't think that will happen. I think he's going to have a rested, successful season this year and will most likely retire a Spur in a couple years.

[Bukefal]

I was one of them who wanted Manu to be traded this summer. Hopefully he will be fully healthy this season otherwise he'll be gone next year...

[NRHector]

I just hope that Manu and the FO come to an agreement so he can retire as a spurs

[Libri]

I don't know. I would probably put Manu's chances of leaving at 30%. By the way did anyone watch the interview Manu recently did with both Greg Simons and Don Harris. Wow Manu doesn't sound very positive at all about staying with the Spurs after this year other than the usual "yes I would like to stay with the Spurs but ...." speech. It should get really interesting next year when he's a FA. If he stays pretty healthy this year I can see some teams willing to pay what we're not which is understandable since he'll be 33. I don't see the Spurs paying that much.

I think that in those interviews, Manu is being realistic about the business nature of an NBA team, where, in most cases, team success is placed over individual players. This may have been more evident for Manu with the trading Bruce and Oberto.

[DynastySpurs210]

Trade Timmy D??

[SenorSpur]

Since Pop is still "throwing up in his mouth" watching Scola play for the Rockets, does anyone here truly believe he'd let Manu get away? A few weeks back, he pretty much indicated he has no intentions, whatsovever, of letting that happen.

[TIMMYD!]

Trade Timmy D??

Don't make me commit suicide.

[Dex]

The percentage of Manu leaving San Antonio is probably very near the percentage that Manu injures himself again sometime early in the season.

Hopefully, both of those are very low.

[spursfan1000]

I think Manu should be at 5 % but anyways i was also one of them who wanted Manu gone, but im sure glad we didnt trade him.

[024]

depends how much ginobili wants in his extension or resigning. at 33, the spurs are not going to pay him big money but they will still be over the cap and unable to sign a capable replacement. spurs may just overpay him because he's the only option they got. i'm thinking $6-8 million would be fair. i can't really see the spurs letting ginobili go because they will only have the MLE to spend, which a part of it might go to splitter, so i doubt the spurs can find a 33 year old ginobili caliber player by using only the MLE. even if they can, the spurs would be better off with ginobili on the team and a MLE player.

[exstatic]

I don't think there a huge market for Manu. He's outstanding, but teams realize that he's a limited minutes player prone to injuries if played more, and he'll be 33. He'll get some offers, but nothing more than the Spurs will pay. I'm guessing 2 years, $15-16M total.

[Brazil]

so to sum up the bulls are going to land every FA in 2010

[Kool Bob Love]

[Russ]

Mahinmi should be a 2010 free agent as of October 31.

If so, I would expect the chances of him leaving to be at least 70%.

If he struggles this year, the Spurs won't want to resign him.

If he surprises with a good year, other teams may jump at him.

Either way, it seems unlikely that he'll be in a Spurs uniform next season.